I would be very, very surprised if we are Premiers by 2010 ... it's not beyond the realms of possibility, but very unlikely. And this is not a slight on Plough, but just the plain reality of the structure of modern footy.
You see, what a lot of people seem to fail to appreciate is just how godawful difficult it is to win a Flag nowadays. Statistically, on average, we should be winning one Premiership every sixteen years, given the socialistic nature of the AFL from about 1998 onwards (that's about the stage where the draft and cap really took affect, as just about all of the pre-draft players had been handed the gold watch .. the Essendon and Carlton cheating distorts this a little in the late 90’s, but hopefully that rubbish is all over now).
If we were to judge the performance and success of our club on the number of Premierships in the modern era, then we are in for almost constant disappointment. We have to realise that we are no more likely than Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda etc to win a Flag nowadays, and probably less likely than the Crows and Eagles, who somehow seem to have a bit of an edge over the stats.
This is not a defeatist attitude, nor is it an acceptance of mediocrity - just plain reality. And of course we should strive to defy the numbers, and build a team that will 'do a Lions' and form a dynasty with repeated Flags. But the reality suggests that in the next twenty years we will be lucky to one Flag, let alone any more than one. And if our footy club are not prepared to accept this likelihood, and act logically in the face of irrational fans who unreasonably demand an ownership of the same sustained success they experienced with (or read about) the club in the 60's and 70's, then we will never win one.
So, we need to redefine what is meant by success in a modern context. Well, four or five years of Finals football in succession would be a start, and not too much to ask for. Some clubs (eg. Essendon, West Coast) have shown that if you do things right off the field, you can defy the odds and get more than your 'fair share' of September action. Maybe they've realised that there are enough Richmonds and St Kildas out there who have made art form out of shooting themselves in the foot, facilitating that they themselves get more of the finals four’n’twenty pie.
It also should not be too much to ask for that we will spend as much time in the Top 4 as we have in the bottom four over the last decade – we’ve had two seasons in the Top 3 in the last decade, but far too many at the other end of the ladder as the trade-off.
Realistically, this is how I see we might be able to structure our development in terms of ladder position over the next half a decade. 2006 & 2007 will probably be bottom 4, with between 5 and 8 wins each just to give us some short-term contentment. 2008 and 2009 should see us with between 8 and 12 wins, reflected in ladder positions 12th to 7th. 2010 and 2011 we hopefully establish ourselves as a Top 4 team, much in the mould of today’s St Kilda or Geelong. If we cannot pinch a flag in 2011, it would be important that we sustain our position over the ensuing three years, as that should be our “Midnight” on the Premiership Clock.
This is what I assumed Plough implied by a “five year plan”. There is no certain recipe for Premiership success, especially not in that brief period, so an expectation of a Premiership is just plain dumb. Any irrational and illogical changes of direction between now and then will only serve to prolong our wait for premiership success.
And if Tiger fans don’t like this modern AFL reality, or don’t have the patience, maybe they should go and barrack for Chelsea or Man United, as one of these two clubs are assured of winning their Premiership next season. Unfortunately, however, we can no longer buy AFL Premierships like the good old days.
You see, what a lot of people seem to fail to appreciate is just how godawful difficult it is to win a Flag nowadays. Statistically, on average, we should be winning one Premiership every sixteen years, given the socialistic nature of the AFL from about 1998 onwards (that's about the stage where the draft and cap really took affect, as just about all of the pre-draft players had been handed the gold watch .. the Essendon and Carlton cheating distorts this a little in the late 90’s, but hopefully that rubbish is all over now).
If we were to judge the performance and success of our club on the number of Premierships in the modern era, then we are in for almost constant disappointment. We have to realise that we are no more likely than Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda etc to win a Flag nowadays, and probably less likely than the Crows and Eagles, who somehow seem to have a bit of an edge over the stats.
This is not a defeatist attitude, nor is it an acceptance of mediocrity - just plain reality. And of course we should strive to defy the numbers, and build a team that will 'do a Lions' and form a dynasty with repeated Flags. But the reality suggests that in the next twenty years we will be lucky to one Flag, let alone any more than one. And if our footy club are not prepared to accept this likelihood, and act logically in the face of irrational fans who unreasonably demand an ownership of the same sustained success they experienced with (or read about) the club in the 60's and 70's, then we will never win one.
So, we need to redefine what is meant by success in a modern context. Well, four or five years of Finals football in succession would be a start, and not too much to ask for. Some clubs (eg. Essendon, West Coast) have shown that if you do things right off the field, you can defy the odds and get more than your 'fair share' of September action. Maybe they've realised that there are enough Richmonds and St Kildas out there who have made art form out of shooting themselves in the foot, facilitating that they themselves get more of the finals four’n’twenty pie.
It also should not be too much to ask for that we will spend as much time in the Top 4 as we have in the bottom four over the last decade – we’ve had two seasons in the Top 3 in the last decade, but far too many at the other end of the ladder as the trade-off.
Realistically, this is how I see we might be able to structure our development in terms of ladder position over the next half a decade. 2006 & 2007 will probably be bottom 4, with between 5 and 8 wins each just to give us some short-term contentment. 2008 and 2009 should see us with between 8 and 12 wins, reflected in ladder positions 12th to 7th. 2010 and 2011 we hopefully establish ourselves as a Top 4 team, much in the mould of today’s St Kilda or Geelong. If we cannot pinch a flag in 2011, it would be important that we sustain our position over the ensuing three years, as that should be our “Midnight” on the Premiership Clock.
This is what I assumed Plough implied by a “five year plan”. There is no certain recipe for Premiership success, especially not in that brief period, so an expectation of a Premiership is just plain dumb. Any irrational and illogical changes of direction between now and then will only serve to prolong our wait for premiership success.
And if Tiger fans don’t like this modern AFL reality, or don’t have the patience, maybe they should go and barrack for Chelsea or Man United, as one of these two clubs are assured of winning their Premiership next season. Unfortunately, however, we can no longer buy AFL Premierships like the good old days.
