Schulz will be the next big thing in AFL this year!

[GoodOne]

LOL, thanks GO, should thought that post through abit better eh. Admittedly was thinking more from limited opportunities perspective - Franklin is a good comparitive though and is a tad better than Schulzy. MMmm Richo didn't make the list ??? :shakehead

Richo - 45 goals from 202 kicks. Having kicked almost as many behinds (40) is a big factor in his case.

Franklin has performed very well from that perspective. Easily the best of the youngest players.

 

[Bill James]

LOL, thanks GO, should thought that post through abit better eh.  Admittedly was thinking more from limited opportunities perspective - Franklin is a good comparitive though and is a tad better than Schulzy.  MMmm Richo didn't make the list ??? :shakehead 

Yes he does limit his opportunities doesn't he.

 

[Tigers of Old]

With a goal conversion rate of 80% for the year he certainly makes the most of those limited opportunities.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Sorry wasnt aware I had to address every word. I dont know about you Rayzor but kicking 3 goals but getting only 4 possessions doesn't sit well with me. It just strengthens my argument that he has bursts and goes missing far too often. Happy to see that he is doing the 1%ers, again so does Krakouer, but a team cant carry a player in the forward line who doesnt get possession just because they have a great defensive ethic.

If you are the last link between attack and the goals - which Schulz was in that match - then if you are making a contest where the ball spills free to others and creates opportunities you are doing your job, though you don't get a stat for it. You're also doing your job if you kick three goals in the wet...regardless of whether you have four kicks or ten to get those three goals.

A team can carry a forward who doesn't get a lot of possessions IF they are the last link in the chain (a genuine FF) and if they are capable of consistently converting. If we were grooming him as a CHF we'd have cause to be worried about his ball getting ability, but that's not the case is it?

 

[GoodOne]

If you are the last link between attack and the goals - which Schulz was in that match - then if you are making a contest where the ball spills free to others and creates opportunities you are doing your job, though you don't get a stat for it. You're also doing your job if you kick three goals in the wet...regardless of whether you have four kicks or ten to get those three goals.

A team can carry a forward who doesn't get a lot of possessions IF they are the last link in the chain (a genuine FF) and if they are capable of consistently converting. If we were grooming him as a CHF we'd have cause to be worried about his ball getting ability, but that's not the case is it?

K then Rayzor, Schulz is doing his job, keep up the good work Schulzy!

 

[jb03]

I honestly thought he had an improved year in '06.
Let's see how he's travelling at the end of 07 before casting him aside "because history shows.. :blah :blah

Thats exactly the issue, history shows if you haven't made it as a key forward by age age 21 you're probably not going to.

Rubbish Bill.
How then does that sit with Phantom's argument that talls "click" at 24?
Jay's already shown signs of what he's capable of, that's not the issue here.

Oh golly one of my favourite posters has lost it. This talls theory that Phantom spruiks is his theory only. Bill has provided evidence that it is a nonsense for key forwards.

The fact is Schulz has underperformed whichever way you slice it and dice it. Through mitigating circumstances he deserves one more year at least, perhaps two but certainly no more.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I honestly thought he had an improved year in '06.
Let's see how he's travelling at the end of 07 before casting him aside "because history shows.. :blah :blah

Thats exactly the issue, history shows if you haven't made it as a key forward by age age 21 you're probably not going to.

Rubbish Bill.
How then does that sit with Phantom's argument that talls "click" at 24?
Jay's already shown signs of what he's capable of, that's not the issue here.

Oh golly one of my favourite posters has lost it. This talls theory that Phantom spruiks is his theory only. Bill has provided evidence that it is a nonsense for key forwards.

The fact is Schulz has underperformed whichever way you slice it and dice it. Through mitigating circumstances he deserves one more year at least, perhaps two but certainly no more.

Thanks Jimmy Barnes, I think? ;D

Schulz's injuries have stalled his development but I don't believe all is lost by any stretch. Despite Bill's "evidence".

We'll see about Jay, time will tell.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Interesting stats from pharace and GoodOne. Dunstall averaged less than 2 kicks per goal for his last 6 seasons.

Another comparison:
- Quinten Lynch turned 23 in January, started as a key position defender before moving forward in 2004, 56 games for 54 goals to the start of 2006, 61 goals this year
- Schulz turns 22 next April, 37 games for 31 goals

Schulz has been a slow-ish developer but further patience is required.

 

[Bill James]

Thanks Jimmy Barnes, I think? ;D

Schulz's injuries have stalled his development but I don't believe all is lost by any stretch. Despite Bill's "evidence".

We'll see about Jay, time will tell.

I have responded to the argument that key forwards who are any good take a long time to develop previously with "evidence". For what its worth I think Phantom is wrong on KPP taking a long time to develop. Ruckman take a long time to develop, KPP's if they are not up and firing by 21 are unusual.

Age- KPPs take a long time to develop but the stars are playing regular senior football (some good) by 19yo. If a young KPP is not playing regular senior footy by 19yo- he is not a star. Keep looking.

This year, we have, Limbach, Hughes and McGuane all as 19yo KPP prospects. The ruck/forwards can take longer so Pattison might still prove an exception. But that's the trio of interest and the first question "Are any of em stars?" is about to be answered. Along with some clues on which positions will best suit them. The plan has to be- Keep looking. The answers will tell us for what.

Great point. If a kid hasn't shown it as a power forward by 20 show him the backline or the door because the odds are against him turning into one. 

2005  Sydney             Barry Hall,             80 goals, 206 marks      1996 debut        1999 kicked 41 goals as a 23yo
2004  Port Adelaide,  Warren Treadrea,  81 goals 192 marks      1997 debit          1998 kicked 33 goals as a 20yo
2003  Brisbane,         Alistair Lynch          78 goals 101 marks,     1988 debut         1988 class full back as a  20yo
                                  Jonathon Brown    27 goals, 126 marks,     2000 debut         2001 kicked 38 goals as a 19yo       
2002  Brisbane,         Alistair Lynch          74 goals 102 marks
2001  Brisbane,         Alilstair Lynch         58 goals 98 marks,
                                  Jonathon Brown 157 Marks 38 goals
2000  Essendon,       Matthew Lloyd,     109 goals 186 marks     1995 debut         1997 kicked 63 goals as a 19yo
1999  Kangarroos,     Wayne Carey         76 goals 145 marks     1989 debut         1990 runner up B&F as a 19yo
1998  Adelaide,          Darren Jarman       45 goals 90 marks   
1997  Adelaide,          Darren Jarman       39 goals 104 marks
1996  North Melb       Wayne Carey         82 goals 200 marks
1995  Carlton             Steve Kernahan     63 goals 121 marks     1986 debut         1986 kicked 62 goals as 22yo, topped Magarey votes in 1983 as 19yo     
1994  West Coast     Peter Sumich           49 goals  61 marks      1989 debut         1989 kicked 45 goals as a 21yo, 3rd South Freo B&F in 1987 as 19yo
1993  Essendon        Paul Salmon            65 goals  157 marks    1983 debut         1984 kicked  63 goals as a 19yo 
1992  West Coast     Peter Sumich           100+ goals

 

[Bill James]

Interesting stats from pharace and GoodOne. Dunstall averaged less than 2 kicks per goal for his last 6 seasons.

Another comparison:
- Quinten Lynch turned 23 in January, started as a key position defender before moving forward in 2004, 56 games for 54 goals to the start of 2006, 61 goals this year
- Schulz turns 22 next April, 37 games for 31 goals

Schulz has been a slow-ish developer but further patience is required.

Possibly the best argument raised against me on this thread. I went on record last year bagging the unit, but at the same time decrying the Eagles for not playing him in last years finals.

However in 2002 aged 19 he played 11 games and kicked 17 goals. It took *smile* another 2 years to reach that level of performance (2006 *smile* aged 21 played 12 games and kicked 16 goals.) If comes out next year and kicks 50 goals I will be a very happy camper, surprised, but happy.

 

[Tigers of Old]

The success of Lynch is a perfect example. 12 months ago every one was calling him a Dud.

I'm sure if Jay was playing for the the Eagles or the Bombers 20 years ago(Salmon), we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In fact I'm sure Claw and yourself would be lauding him as an exciting young talent and screaming to get him to Tigerland .

Let's concentrate on the real issues at hand and get the midfield right.

Write Sarge off at your peril. As I said time will tell.

 

[Bill James]

The success of Lynch is a perfect example. 12 months ago every one was calling him a Dud. 

I'm sure if Jay was playing for the the Eagles or the Bombers 20 years ago(Salmon), we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In fact I'm sure Claw and yourself would be lauding him as an exciting young talent and screaming to get him to Tigerland .

Let's concentrate on the real issues at hand and get the midfield right.

Write Sarge off at your peril. As I said time will tell.

In fact Claw and I debated last year on KPP forwards and we disagreed on many players, (T Gaspar, Lynch, Gardiner included) but the one player we agreed on was *smile*. He hadn't shown much at that time, however you will note that neither of us advocated delisting him we just saw him as a long shot. The longer it goes the longer his odds.

http://www.puntroadend.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=18877.0

 

[the claw]

The success of Lynch is a perfect example. 12 months ago every one was calling him a Dud. 

I'm sure if Jay was playing for the the Eagles or the Bombers 20 years ago(Salmon), we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In fact I'm sure Claw and yourself would be lauding him as an exciting young talent and screaming to get him to Tigerland .

Let's concentrate on the real issues at hand and get the midfield right.

Write Sarge off at your peril. As I said time will tell.

ToO i was one of the few on this site who defended lynch last yr. i have regularly statedi think wce would have won the cup if he had played. i also rate him a better defender than forward.imo hes played his best footy for them down back. with lynch he was getting to the right spots just making lots of silly simple skill errors.he still does but they are slowly becoming less and less.
ToO im not saying schulz doesnt have some talent and like a lot of posters think he should be retained for another yr because of circumstances.but for him to stay longer there has to be some significant improvement.imo his improvement since he came to the club has been minimal. maybe he will go click like phanto says and prove us all wrong but i just cant see it. i have branded him a mark and kick player i see no reason to change that opinion.

 

[purepoweryouth]

The success of Lynch is a perfect example. 12 months ago every one was calling him a Dud. 

I'm sure if Jay was playing for the the Eagles or the Bombers 20 years ago(Salmon), we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In fact I'm sure Claw and yourself would be lauding him as an exciting young talent and screaming to get him to Tigerland .

Let's concentrate on the real issues at hand and get the midfield right.

Write Sarge off at your peril. As I said time will tell.

ToO i was one of the few on this site who defended lynch last yr. i have regularly statedi think wce would have won the cup if he had played. i also rate him a better defender than forward.imo hes played his best footy for them down back. with lynch he was getting to the right spots just making lots of silly simple skill errors.he still does but they are slowly becoming less and less.

I agree claw. I think the eagles have struck gold with this guy. However, I really like the fact they have him roaming around half forward as the guy has a super reliable pair of hands, rarely dropping a mark, and as we have seen, he can kick the ball a mile.
WCE are certainly a lot better for persisting with him.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Well fellas, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Jay for now.

I'm hopeful one way or the other we'll be on the same page at the end of next year. Hopefully the perseverance & faith the club is showing in him pays off.

One thing is for sure though I won't defend him forever, I do expect significant improvement next season. 8)

 

[TigerMasochist]

Well fellas, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Jay for now.

I'm hopeful one way or the other we'll be on the same page towards at the end of next year and the perseverance with Jay the faith the club is showing in him pays off.

One thing is for sure though I won't defend him forever, I do expect significant improvement next season. 8)

The big Yowie desperately needs to stay injury free for all of 07.
With Stafford gone, Browny back in good nick and hopefully a clean pre season Jay gets the chance to stamp himself as a key forward.
If he doesn't put it together in 07 I doubt his career would continue.

 

[Tubytiger]

Well fellas, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Jay for now.

I'm hopeful one way or the other we'll be on the same page towards at the end of next year and the perseverance with Jay the faith the club is showing in him pays off.

One thing is for sure though I won't defend him forever, I do expect significant improvement next season. 8)

The big Yowie desperately needs to stay injury free for all of 07.
With Stafford gone, Browny back in good nick and hopefully a clean pre season Jay gets the chance to stamp himself as a key forward.
If he doesn't put it together in 07 I doubt his career would continue.

He will never stamp himself as a key forward while Richo is there - simple as that. I dont care what spots he runs to on the ground for umpteen years we have consistently kicked it to Richo when going forward and that hasnt changed since Wallace got to the club. I love the big fella in Richo but questions have to be asked as to how long we go without success with our Richo coloured glasses are on in terms of forward line function. Sure he might demand the ball and that is what Sarge has to concentrate on doing every time but honestly if the players running forward dont start looking consistently for other options than we wont get anywhere near where we want to be in the coming 3-4 years.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Currently Richo is still our number 1 forward and rightly so.
IMO Nathan Brown's recovery from injury will be a crucial step in our success in '07 because to date he is the only forward in Richo's career that I've seen have any genuine success play along side him. Notably Browny is not a KPP. I think that duo was critical in Wallace's plans for the RFC and still is.
At some stage though in the near future Madcow won't be the "go to" man whether that be through injury or by design & there needs to be a candidate who can fill the breach of key forward. This is clearly the role Jay is being groomed for. That is IMO why patience is required but as I have said he needs to keep improving and making the most of his opportunities.

 

[Phar Ace]

Well fellas, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Jay for now.

I'm hopeful one way or the other we'll be on the same page towards at the end of next year and the perseverance with Jay the faith the club is showing in him pays off.

One thing is for sure though I won't defend him forever, I do expect significant improvement next season. 8)

The big Yowie desperately needs to stay injury free for all of 07.
With Stafford gone, Browny back in good nick and hopefully a clean pre season Jay gets the chance to stamp himself as a key forward.
If he doesn't put it together in 07 I doubt his career would continue.

He will never stamp himself as a key forward while Richo is there - simple as that. I dont care what spots he runs to on the ground for umpteen years we have consistently kicked it to Richo when going forward and that hasnt changed since Wallace got to the club. I love the big fella in Richo but questions have to be asked as to how long we go without success with our Richo coloured glasses are on in terms of forward line function. Sure he might demand the ball and that is what Sarge has to concentrate on doing every time but honestly if the players running forward dont start looking consistently for other options than we wont get anywhere near where we want to be in the coming 3-4 years.

We ain't agreed on much Tubster but I'll shine your buttons on this one. Like many I really like the big fella's heart, but when he's retired we'll see a very different RFC.

 

[Tango]

the reason browny does well is because he uses his bloody nous, he knows where richo is going and knows that he takes the defenders focus with him
Browny usually goes the opposite direction, often its to the fat side (dunstall made an art form out of this because its the easiest place for a player on the run to kick to - ie out in front) this is what we have lacked multiple leads up the ground in differeant angles, very hard for the loose man to plug both gaps

when stafford was deep and we kicked it long to him we had the same effect, richo leads out, we kicked it deep to staff

jay just needs to learn to go the opposite way, our mids will eventually trust and honor his leads and we will be less predictable for it - 3 options
Richo - leading to the player with the ball
Browning leading to the fat side
Jay - staying deep

not bad if our mids are smart enough to mix it up