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Stock Market

mb64

Tiger Legend
Jul 26, 2004
29,650
80
Melbourne
TigerGoneNorth said:
I wouldn't be too sure. Volumes have dried up so any events (U.S Car industry etc) could see a wild move yet.

It does look that world markets have found a bottom. There's been some sideways movement for a while and the odd bout of selling is being soaked up pretty well. There is a chance of a pretty strong rally - even bad bear markets have periods of strong performance.
Agree
 

mb64

Tiger Legend
Jul 26, 2004
29,650
80
Melbourne
The stock market continues to be as flat as the WACA wicket,market down slightly today but nothing much happening at all.Seems we may have bottomed out though which is something.
 

tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
20,501
4,875
Hey! Old thread.

Question for anyone who knows the stock market, economic analysis etc. Tesla, big darling tech stock. To me, it would seem the once all the established car makers focus their considerable resources on making EVs, which they have been slow to do but are ramping up, they will be just another car maker.

The new BMW EV has just been launched, verdict seems to be its pretty much as good as the Tesla equivalent, but 20% cheaper. Ditto but to a lesser extent Audi, others can't be far away. Tesla seems pretty fragile to me.
 
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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
13,458
11,881
Hey! Old thread.

Question for anyone who knows the stock market, economic analysis etc. Tesla, big darling tech stock. To me, it would seem the once all the established car makers focus their considerable resources on making EVs, which they have been slow to do but are ramping up, they will be just another car maker.

The new BMW EV has just been launched, verdict seems to be its pretty much as good as the Tesla equivalent, but 20% cheaper. Ditto but to a lesser extent Audi, others can't be far away. Tesla seems pretty fragile to me.

They potentially are, but I reckon they are following the Apple strategy. 1st mover advantage for their more expensive product.
 

tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
20,501
4,875
They potentially are, but I reckon they are following the Apple strategy. 1st mover advantage for their more expensive product.
yeah, but will it work? Henry Ford invented the production line, first with mass car production. Took the competition 10 years to catch up, but they caught up, and things move faster nowadays. But, Ford is still a big company 100 years later. I'd be worried if I was a big Tesla investor. I reckon the first mover premium is too high and will erode quick.
 
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spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
17,679
15,471
Melbourne
I think I'm right in saying Tesla has never turned a profit from vehicle sales. I agree with posh they have some of that Apple cool cache and first mover advantage, but snake you're right that all makers are turning their attention to EVs which will dilute the market.

Australia has been treacle slow to adopt EVs but Tesla's Model 3 was the 2nd-biggest selling sedan in the country last year, behind the perennial winner the Camry. Around 12,000 of 20,000 EVs sold in Australia last year were Model 3s.
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
8,089
11,611
Melbourne
They potentially are, but I reckon they are following the Apple strategy. 1st mover advantage for their more expensive product.

I reckon they are taking a few other leaves out of Apple's books too - they might be developing self driving technology but they will use this elsewhere, consumer robots for example. They also have RDF that Apple have managed to create - it's Tesla so it is just better!

I suspect that the other car companies will catch them and Tesla will not keep its high value. However, they have managed to muscle in on an industry which is not so easy to get a start in, and they will survive and thrive. But likely not at the level the Musk fanbois think.

DS
 

Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
41,640
13,719
I agree Tesla is the Apple of the car industry. They will remain niche and there will always be a market for them. Like Apple, they'll probably fire their founder and replace him with a car industry type, then when they mismanage the brand and nearly send Tesla bankrupt, Musk will return like a knight in shining armour and turn the company around again.

One issue with companies like Tesla that are more about Musk than anything else, when he gets bored with EV, what happens then? He's all in on space travel at the moment.

(glad this was a post about a specific company rather than a comment on the markets over the last 3 to 4 months. Ouch)
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
13,458
11,881
yeah, but will it work? Henry Ford invented the production line, first with mass car production. Took the competition 10 years to catch up, but they caught up, and things move faster nowadays. But, Ford is still a big company 100 years later. I'd be worried if I was a big Tesla investor. I reckon the first mover premium is too high and will erode quick.

Yeah I think it will in a niche way. I think even Musk knows they won't be the worlds largest car manufacturer, they will follow the Apple pathway. Iphones are always spoken about when talking around the smartphone market, yet Apple only have around 12-15% worldwide market share. Huawei produce more phones than any other manufacturer in the world.

Tesla is a marketing exercise much like Apple, it appears to be a premium product and therefore attracts a premium even though it isn't a premium product and they will ensure that those that buy Tesla, much like Apple, buy into the brand rather than the individual piece of technology that they own. Many car manufacturers already market themselves this way, compare VW, Audi and Skoda. Marketing is around Audi is premium, VW is middle of the range and Skoda is a cheaper alternative, though they are manufactured essentially in the same way. US car manufacturers follow a slightly different position, in that they market their cars based upon national pride, take Dodge or Chrysler, not the greatest cars but they are marketed to attract people that want to show off how American they are. The Dodge Ram is a very average car, but is one of the biggest sellers in the US because its "American muscle".

Musk knows that it will be a marketing exercise to ensure that Tesla remains around, but he will market this more as a status symbol compared to say a Toyota or Honda version that might be manufactured better, but much like Apple its a status symbol rather than the best in the business.
 
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TigerMasochist

Walks softly carries a big stick.
Jul 13, 2003
22,550
6,531
Did I hear wrong tonight about Tesla recalling a shitload of their cars because there was something wrong with their automated driver safety support system???? Was channel surfing in veg mode n missed most of the report, something about the cars not coming to a complete stop at times.
 

tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
20,501
4,875
thought there would be a crypto thread buy couldn't find one.

Watching a 4 Corners investigation of crypto. I'm a skeptic, but I'd like to think I'm somewhat open minded, or at least not closed minded. A few observations:

The skeptics seem to know their stuff, have good arguments, articulate, convincing. Not all old white guys like me, young people, women, as well as the old white guys.

The supporters seem to be generally lacking in intellectual horsepower, and there seems to be a lot of old white guys. The lack of sophistication, in an field I would have expected some degree of sophistication even if it is a ponzi scheme, is a bit embarrassing in some cases.

It doesn't get used as a currency, even though its supposed to be a currency. People are scared to use it as a currency because it is so volatile, they pay $10 bucks for a beer today at a crypto get-together, tomorrow that $10 might be worth $50. So at crypto get-togethers, where you can pay in crypto, nobody does.

It is money laundering paradise.
 
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The Big Richo

Tiger Rookie
Aug 19, 2010
478
809
The home of Dusty
thought there would be a crypto thread buy couldn't find one.

Watching a 4 Corners investigation of crypto. I'm a skeptic, but I'd like to think I'm somewhat open minded, or at least not closed minded. A few observations:

The skeptics seem to know their stuff, have good arguments, articulate, convincing. Not all old white guys like me, young people, women, as well as the old white guys.

The supporters seem to be generally lacking in intellectual horsepower, and there seems to be a lot of old white guys. The lack of sophistication, in an field I would have expected some degree of sophistication even if it is a ponzi scheme, is a bit embarrassing in some cases.

It doesn't get used as a currency, even though its supposed to be a currency. People are scared to use it as a currency because it is so volatile, they pay $10 bucks for a beer today at a crypto get-together, tomorrow that $10 might be worth $50. So at crypto get-togethers, where you can pay in crypto, nobody does.

It is money laundering paradise.

I was fortunate enough to be talked into buying this 'new money' in 2009. After a tip from a very rich man, a few of us did it in a pub, the same way you chuck a bit of money in to start a punter's club. There was the usual banter about being weak which pushed us all to drop in more which I think we are all very grateful for. I remember being told you couldn't just buy the things, some computer had to solve a maths equation to find them and thinking it was a prank.

Needless to say getting in at about 15c for something that has been as high as 70k has been very lucrative but it still doesn't sit well with me as a citizen of the world. All of that money has been generated with very little to show for it. It's created almost no employment, not much wider economic benefit and benefited very few people. It's a ridiculous make believe world where some lucky people get super rich without ever earning it.

I was able to take some of that money and invest in a couple of small Australian companies, both of which have done very well. The money they have made is significant, but only a fraction of the money of bitcoin, but they have created hundreds of jobs, contributed to the tax system, and generally improved the economic landscape of Australia in their own little ways. I get much more pleasure and satisfaction out of that than the crypto nonsense.
 
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tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
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I don't begrudge people who have made some dough out of, just like winning tattslotto, especially young people who have been locked out of real estate and other traditional ways to increase wealth. But there is a lot of stench coming from it. A few more points they made last night:

massive carbon footprint, energy use from all the computers whirring away mining the coins.

its all happened so fast and is so complex that there is no regulation.

organised crime loves crypto and has boomed as a result

the rationale for it is to cut out the middle man of banks, but a lot of analyst believe the crypto tycoon controllers are totally opaque and unaccountable and far worse than banks.

as I said earlier, the spruikers just didn't seem very bright or very nice, a lot anti-vax, libertarian nonsense justifying what is just a get rich quick scheme.

Even one of the big spruikers said he believed "99%" of the current crypto coins would end up being worthless, (but he also believed it was still the way of the future).
 
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Tigers of Old

Proud of our Club.
Jul 26, 2004
72,687
21,281
www.redbubble.com
The fundamental problem with Bitcoin & other cryto is it's a currency. A currency that's barely been accepted as usable in a mainstream environment.
Way too volatile to be taken seriously. I dipped in a while back so I could understand what it's all about & I haven't been very impressed at all.
It really is a case of the Emperor's new clothes.
 
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Panthera Tigris

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2010
3,140
1,119
The fundamental problem with Bitcoin & other cryto is it's a currency. A currency that's barely been accepted as usable in a mainstream environment.
Way too volatile to be taken seriously. I dipped in a while back so I could understand what it's all about & I haven't been very impressed at all.
It really is a case of the Emperor's new clothes.
It wasn't that long ago that it was being talked up as an electronic version of gold. Sharing the same characteristics that makes physical gold a safe haven. Always seemed like rubbish to me. Could not see it myself. It had nothing at all in common as to why physical gold is a traditional safe haven.

I was doing a course (for work) last week where the facilitator showed a gold price movement graph, overlaid a Bitcoin (among some other cryptocurrencies) price movement graph over a period of 5 years. Gold is relatively volatile as it is, looked at in isolation by itself. But when overlaid with crypto price graphs, the price movement line for gold barely looked to have moved.
 
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tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
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a couple of weeks ago I read one crypto coin, as an example of the wider crypto crash that was on, went from $110-odd dollars to 0.5 of a cent in one morning.
 
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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
13,458
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a couple of weeks ago I read one crypto coin, as an example of the wider crypto crash that was on, went from $110-odd dollars to 0.5 of a cent in one morning.

This is the thing for me. All markets (whether that be stock or crypto) are manipulated somewhat. In the stock market its all around charting. Someone somewhere, created a whole playbook around charting, whereby a "stock market pattern" can be created (with many of the patterns able to be read in 2 ways, either for growth or decline - a lot of grey, sort of the AFL's playbook), the big boys take their position earlier, but the amount of short term traders will then take their position. Its essentially a self fulfilling prophecy for the big boys and 1 of the major reasons why many traders don't make money. There will be enough people that make money with the movement, that they continue to trade, and will tell others about this great method to make money from the stock market.

Crypto - and it was seen with devastatingly big impacts a few weeks - is under the control of only a few people. From those that can "create" additional bitcoins or whatever, only a small number essentially control the supply, and then when they choose to can push the markets up and down at will, even when they lose control of a coin, they can devastate the value.

For the above reasons, its why I'm a see company buy company type of guy. I don't short, I don't sweat the market. I just take positions in companies that I think are undervalued. Its doing well for me now, and time has shown for me that the above reasons show that small cap investing is very hit and miss. I fell into this trap in the first few years of trading and lost a fair amount of money, but a focus on undervalued mid caps is the sweet spot for me, coupled with larger holdings in bigger cap stocks that are safer but have strong dividend yields.
 
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