Greens won’t get anymore than 10% of the vote.Latest Newspoll remains steady at 53/47 TPP, but the Liberals primary vote is down.
Even Resolve Strategic (the dodgy pollster who has close links to Scott Morrison) has TPP at 54/46.
One thing that’s interesting to note (but not getting any media) is that the Greens primary vote, which usually hovers around the 8-10% mark has been consistently getting around the 14-15% mark in all of these polls.
i got $2.65 for an independent to win Kooyong 2 months ago and $2.20 for Goldstein. Now its $2.10 for an independent to win both Kooyong and Goldstein.
I'm not sure why you think Josh has any chance to retain Kooyong. Monique Ryan internal polling from 2 weeks ago had her at 59/41 TPP. Of course, it’s easy to be sceptical of internal polling of yourself, but even if its out by 5-6%. She’s still comfortably ahead.
The massive Herald Scum puff piece yesterday is all the evidence you need to know how screwed they think he is.
An interesting sidenote to this is Ted Baillieu’s son is heavily campaigning for Dr Ryan.
I think there are voters who tell the internal polls they are going to vote Greens and then vote the Libs. Hence the silent majority talk.
I know someone who done this before. His reasoning was to shine more on the Greens full policy so that swinging voters get scared and vote Libs on polling day.
For example how many people know that horse racing will be banned under Green’s policy?


