It's stupid. They're stupid. Stupid people doing stupid because they're stupid. The Tories and the Murdochs bank on them, and why wouldn't they. Stupid people are the most predictable. And the easiest to manipulate. Reds under the bed! The Yellow Peril! Terrorism! Children Overboard! Electric cars will kill the weekend! The Liberal Party is good at the economy! Climate change is a hoax! I made this curry! We're for you! etc.
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Talking Politics
- Thread starter Legends of 2017
- Start date
The Leigh Sales interview last night with Morrison was so tepid it just gave weight to those saying she is biased.
I voted the other day and I found to my horror that I could only put the Redneck Redhead *smile* Racist Party third-last! THIRD-last!!! That's how *smile* bad things are that there are two worse options than Dumb *smile* R Us. Cos you gotta put Fatty McCoalfucker below them, cos he's just an evil Jabba the *smile* incarnate. And you have to put the Liberals last, beacuse they are the absolute WORST. Seriously, if there were a party called The Pedophilic Kitten Murderers, I would put them above the Liberals.
I can only console myself with the thought it'll be over in a few days, Scuntmo and his mob are almost certainly for the plank, and hopefully more than a couple go to prison.
I can only console myself with the thought it'll be over in a few days, Scuntmo and his mob are almost certainly for the plank, and hopefully more than a couple go to prison.
I prevoted today too. Sorting one nation, LNP and Palmer was a new experience for me you summed up well. I’ve definitely voted liberal in the past but the corruption and incompetence has me completely done.
Yep.
leigh went one election too long.
Kerry Obrian did too.
They're human.
Sara Ferguson is a great replacement.
It wont be pretty for the spivs, suckholes and snakes
shes like a white shark in a meat pool
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OMG
Nothing else to say really.
Living in a very safe seat (Libs won on primaries last election), normally the election for the lower house is a non event. Barely anything in the letterbox, very few signs around, not much happening. But, no more, independents to the rescue.
It is astounding what is going on now in Goldstein. Today we got yet another leaflet dropped in the letter box from the Libs, must say it was a terrible leaflet. It was a scratchy where you scratch the answers to leading questions. Crap, you don't make people work to get your message, 99% won't bother and the other 1% are politically engaged so likely have already got fairly set opinions. But, on top of the terrible leaflet, I got, in the mail, a personally addressed letter from John Howard (no, not the actor, the former PM). It was sent through the mail so not so cheap. Interestingly it was sent to me and my partner hasn't got one (anyone still wondering why the LNP have an issue with women, is she going to get a letter from Mr Howard or not?). Plus, a Robocall from Tim Wilson this evening. This is simply astounding, nothing from Phantom Wilson for all his years "representing" us, and now a veritable avalanche, even a letter from a former PM.
I ride to work so get a bit of an impression of the area. Now, I ride through Brighton and the number of Zoe Daniels signs is multiplying. If the support can be measured by the number of signs on houses there is some sort of groundswell happening to elect her and dump the right wing IPA Lib. This is not the area where the ALP win a few booths like Bentleigh or the like, this is Liberal heartland, Brighton, where the Lib vote in most booths is well over 50%.
If Goldstein is under this level of threat then I reckon Kooyong may well be gone for the Libs. They must be very very worried about losing Goldstein, the amount of hassling we are getting to vote Wilson back in is huge, I've never seen anything like it.
I am enjoying this, they are having to use considerable resources to try and win a seat they normally take for granted, so much fun to watch this happening.
DS
Nothing else to say really.
Living in a very safe seat (Libs won on primaries last election), normally the election for the lower house is a non event. Barely anything in the letterbox, very few signs around, not much happening. But, no more, independents to the rescue.
It is astounding what is going on now in Goldstein. Today we got yet another leaflet dropped in the letter box from the Libs, must say it was a terrible leaflet. It was a scratchy where you scratch the answers to leading questions. Crap, you don't make people work to get your message, 99% won't bother and the other 1% are politically engaged so likely have already got fairly set opinions. But, on top of the terrible leaflet, I got, in the mail, a personally addressed letter from John Howard (no, not the actor, the former PM). It was sent through the mail so not so cheap. Interestingly it was sent to me and my partner hasn't got one (anyone still wondering why the LNP have an issue with women, is she going to get a letter from Mr Howard or not?). Plus, a Robocall from Tim Wilson this evening. This is simply astounding, nothing from Phantom Wilson for all his years "representing" us, and now a veritable avalanche, even a letter from a former PM.
I ride to work so get a bit of an impression of the area. Now, I ride through Brighton and the number of Zoe Daniels signs is multiplying. If the support can be measured by the number of signs on houses there is some sort of groundswell happening to elect her and dump the right wing IPA Lib. This is not the area where the ALP win a few booths like Bentleigh or the like, this is Liberal heartland, Brighton, where the Lib vote in most booths is well over 50%.
If Goldstein is under this level of threat then I reckon Kooyong may well be gone for the Libs. They must be very very worried about losing Goldstein, the amount of hassling we are getting to vote Wilson back in is huge, I've never seen anything like it.
I am enjoying this, they are having to use considerable resources to try and win a seat they normally take for granted, so much fun to watch this happening.
DS
Agree, number them in preference of who you want elected. I will be putting the Libs ahead of the UAP and One Fascist Nation, for all that I can't stand the Libs at least they're not nutcases and racists.
In the House of Reps this won't matter because the lunatic fringe won't be anywhere near the last few candidates still in the race when preferences are distributed.
In the Senate this may actually matter and, like the last election, I will likely preference down to the LNP, I'll hold my nose and do this because if it comes down to the last few votes in the Senate election for the last seat, I would prefer an LNP candidate win than some idiots like One Fascist Nation or the Coal Miner's Party. Have a think about this folks, it may matter.
DS
I think it's only fair that Howard is being brought pout to campaign in the former Lib stronghold seats that are now looking at risk. There would be no one more experienced at losing a safe seat than John Howard. It's only just that he imparts some of that wisdom onto the soon to be ex-elected representatives.
Did my pre-vote ballot thingy on the ABC website the other day, and know exactly how you’re feeling
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polls are tightening and it is making me nervous. Roy Morgan 53/47 TPP and Resolve Strategic 51/49 TPP. Resolve Strategic is not a reliable source (they predicted a Liberal win in the SA State Election), but its still 3 points different to last week (Roy Morgan has a 1.5% difference compared to last week).
Despite the tightening of the polls, I still cannot see a way for the Liberals to win when you look at the individual seats.
Take Victoria for example. Labor will win the new seat of Hawke (they need a 10% swing against to lose). Labor will win Chisholm and have a shot of taking Casey, Deakin and La Trobe. Labor or the Greens are a shot at Higgins and the Teals will probably win Kooyong, Goldstein and have a shot at Flinders. So the Liberals will lose at least 4 seats, but it could lose as many as 8.
But then you look at what seats the Liberals can take back in Victoria Corangamite maybe? That’s it. They are targeting McEwen, but won’t get the 5.3% swing the require. They are lookling at a net loss of 3-7 seats in VIC alone.
On another note, Roy Morgan has a 6% swing against the Liberals in Dickson. Peter Dutton looks gone.
Despite the tightening of the polls, I still cannot see a way for the Liberals to win when you look at the individual seats.
Take Victoria for example. Labor will win the new seat of Hawke (they need a 10% swing against to lose). Labor will win Chisholm and have a shot of taking Casey, Deakin and La Trobe. Labor or the Greens are a shot at Higgins and the Teals will probably win Kooyong, Goldstein and have a shot at Flinders. So the Liberals will lose at least 4 seats, but it could lose as many as 8.
But then you look at what seats the Liberals can take back in Victoria Corangamite maybe? That’s it. They are targeting McEwen, but won’t get the 5.3% swing the require. They are lookling at a net loss of 3-7 seats in VIC alone.
On another note, Roy Morgan has a 6% swing against the Liberals in Dickson. Peter Dutton looks gone.
It's a worry for sure about the latest polls. I think we are definitely moving into a 'post-polls' era and it's going to take a while for us to adjust. The pollsters are changing their techniques but I think the fundamental problem is that people are lying in their responses.
I used to work as a political analyst and I have a pretty good strike rate with calling election results. I called both Trump and Morrison correctly. I am still very confidnet of a Labour win this time-but that's not to say that I am not feeling nervous like you.
The government paid Resolve Strategic (one person, James Reed) $554,675 to assess its Covid communications (contract signed 28/5/2020, report submitted 5/6/2020, amendments made over next 2 months). He's a Liberal Party operative. Refuses to join the polling company association thingy.
Yeah. Labor government still $1.50 favourite though. Main shift is from majority ALP to minority. Sportsbet has wound ALP majority out to $2.50 but 365 has it $1.90 - and 365 has until now given better odds on Labor than Sportsbet has. About even money for the ALP to win majority on Betfair so could arbitrage for a free bet using Sportsbet.
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