Agree, could go either way for her. To be honest, if she gets in, probably a fair result for QLD in terms of the demographic and social composition and how they vote. And hence it’s probably a good representation. Two right, two left, one far left, one far right.Bloody hell, you are right, Hanson is up for election.
However, not sure she will lose.
LNP have 2.2 quotas
ALP have 1.7 quotas
Greens have 0.9 quotas
So, you would think LNP 2 seats, ALP 2 seats, Greens 1 seat. That leaves 1 left and Hanson has 0.55 of a quota.
Very much depends on where the preferences go and the preference count in proportional rep is insanely complex. The left over quotas from tickets who have elected senators are allocated as partial votes, so, looking at the above, after using 2 quotas worth of votes the LNP preferences go through as one eleventh of a vote each (as the other 10 elevenths were used to elect their 2 senators. These are allocated before candidates are knocked out. When candidates are knocked out their preferences go through as full votes as the vote has not been used to elect any senators.
This will take time and they will need to wait for all the votes to come in, including postal and international votes. But Hanson has the highest proportion of the last quota as it stands at the moment.
Counting, yeah, tell me about it. I was employed to do senate re-count back before above the line voting, it was laborious but at least we didn't have to deal with exhausted votes with optional preferential.
DS
I’ve done a few State elections. Am on the employment register in my State’s Electoral Commission. I really enjoy it. Find the work fascinating. I’m a geography and demographics nerd, so it feeds into that general interest as to how geography and social demographics contribute into voting trends. I really value the system we have too. Cannot understate how crucial it is to have an independent electoral commission of the likes of the UK, Canada, NZ and Australia. We don’t have a perfect system but it *smile* all over the corruption of the US electoral system, that has no independent electoral commission. And is instead run by the parties themselves. So I feel it’s my way of caring about, contributing to and upholding the integrity of our democratic system. In saying this I am a disillusioned voter with no natural political home (my views are pretty divergent on various issues). But I can still care about the integrity of the electoral system itself and the crucial role it plays in the fabric of our society.
We have the Hare-Clarke system of preferential voting in our state elections down here, so it’s a similar kind of distribution process as the complex Senate distribution you talk about. I have been meaning to register with the AEC and do a Federal election to compare and contrast with State. Had intended to work this one. But am tied up with junior sports coaching for my little bloke and his friends this winter.
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