Talking Politics

[AngryAnt]

I can't speak for Baloo, but i despise the Greens for their refusal to support Rudd's Emission Trading Scheme. When the proposed legislation was ready to be voted on, the next election was not far away. So even though an ETS was what they wanted they voted against it, they voted with the Libs!!!!

They reckon they voted with the Libs because it didn't go far enough :rofl

The real reason was because they thought that they would clean up at the next election. They played dirty, grubby politics which has had a massive impact politically on the Labor party and environmentally.

Agree 100% with this. If this had gone through emissions would already be significantly down. Business was happy with the certainty and the economy would have adjusted. Abbott's great big tax on everything election win might not have happened.

This was one of the all time great *smile*-ups.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Rather than get overly emotional about politics. I tend to find demographic trends fascinating. I watch elections more from an amateur Antony Green perspective. I was an election and Geography nerd at school.

One theme he and several other commentators picked up on was a strange kind of cultural shift emerging. Where wealthy blue riband Liberal seats are moving left - with the Coalition vote trending down and moving across to Green, ALP or left leaning independent candidates. Whereas formerly blue riband working class ALP seats are moving to the right. Either straight to the Coalition, or going to One Nation and eventually flowing back to the Coalition as preferences.

On One Nation, something that really surprised me was the amount of One Nation presence at polling booths. I'm in Tasmania and it seems to have popped up out of nowhere. Sure, they have had quite a presence in QLD, WA and regional NSW for some years. But until now, even though they were on the ballot, I've never ever seen them particularly active. But this election, they seemed to have as many volunteers and as much signage around the polling stations as the Greens, who have always had quite a presence in Tasmania in my voting life. Really surprised me. Tasmania has been quite a strongly voting Green state for some years, but One Nation are now polling not terribly below them. One of the five Tasmanian electorates, One Nation were actually polling much stronger than the Greens. As I say, I found that very surprising given One Nation made absolute fools of themselves in the lead up to the Federal election, and it was tipped their vote would collapse even in their heartland, let alone in areas that aren't strongholds of their's.

 

[AngryAnt]

yes, times are a changing PT.

Primary vote for the ALP is around, what, 36%. The LNP not that much higher. Class divides aren't so strong - and I think social media and savvy campaigning means that people are actually more easily influenced by FUD and doom than ever before - and you only need 1-3% to sway the election result. Palmer didn't get in but he certainly helped the LNP in QLD - I wonder if there will be a payoff there.

Even if you disagree with ALP policies (fair enough) it's just hard to see why a dysfunctional government like this should be returned - but they were. The other aspect is that the days of parties honestly presenting a policy platform and campaigning on that are clearly over. You can't win doing this, particularly if the other side doesn't play along. This to me is the saddest take-home message.

As for me, a tough weekend. I see it as a big opportunity lost particularly for tax reform and meaningful climate change/energy policy. Will be interesting to see whether ScoMo is content to just drift along with minimal reforms or he goes full on Trump, winding back environmental and labour laws.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

yes, times are a changing PT.

Primary vote for the ALP is around, what, 36%. The LNP not that much higher. Class divides aren't so strong - and I think social media and savvy campaigning means that people are actually more easily influenced by FUD and doom than ever before - and you only need 1-3% to sway the election result. Palmer didn't get in but he certainly helped the LNP in QLD - I wonder if there will be a payoff there.

Even if you disagree with ALP policies (fair enough) it's just hard to see why a dysfunctional government like this should be returned - but they were. The other aspect is that the days of parties honestly presenting a policy platform and campaigning on that are clearly over. You can't win doing this, particularly if the other side doesn't play along. This to me is the saddest take-home message.

As for me, a tough weekend. I see it as a big opportunity lost particularly for tax reform and meaningful climate change/energy policy. Will be interesting to see whether ScoMo is content to just drift along with minimal reforms or he goes full on Trump, winding back environmental and labour laws.

I'll add to my comments by saying, despite the stronger One Nation support, it doesn't appear to have translated into more seats......yet.

But here's the thing. It may well do in future. As you point out, the L-NP, ALP vote combined continues to trend down, meaning we are at all time lows in primary votes combined, going to major parties (only around 62-65% and trending down). Our preferential voting system continues to shield them for now. But if this trend continues, will we see this splintering of the vote actually translating into more political representation of these minor parties? Perhaps.

It could be a situation in future that we end up with quite a sizable cross bench of left leaning independents and Greens in combination with One Nation (I doubt Fraser Anning's National White Supremicists will ever win any political representation - these are the types of people even One Nation looks at and thinks to themselves, "*smile*ing hell! Those guys are out there!").

If anyone's interested in demographic trends such as this. Do some reading on what happened in Joel Fitzgibbon's Hunter electorate in the Newcastle hinterland. One of the most staunchly ALP working class seats in NSW, if not, the country. It's not inconceivable that this could go to One Nation in future years. There was a 21% swing against the ALP and it didn't go to the Coalition (they were down about 0.4%). It went entirely to One Nation! I have extended family up there (forgive me, I'm not that close to them) who are life long ALP voters and switched to One Nation this election.

 

[HR]

Another one trick pony gone.
For all the far rights that have been sent packing , of which Abbott is not one, I am glad to see some of the confused left being dealt with too.

 

[easy_tiger]

It will probably happen with a reversal of the decision refusing him to build a rail line to carry his coal in the Galilee Basin, it will be the best $80 million Mud Guts has ever spent easy.

think you may be right there Than.

Agree 100% with this. If this had gone through emissions would already be significantly down. Business was happy with the certainty and the economy would have adjusted. Abbott's great big tax on everything election win might not have happened.

This was one of the all time great *smile*-ups.

I missed that, and yeah certainly sounds monumental.

But does it explain the vitriol towards De Natale?

I mean, people who don't like the greens, wouldn't have wanted an ETS anyway would they?

disappointed Plibersek hasn't got the bottle to lead.

Its going to be Albonese V ScoMo, which is like being forced to watch Carlton V North Melbourne for 3 years

 

[Baloo]

Please read no antagonism into this question Baloo,

just genuinely curiousity.

Can you explain how you view De Natale as equally nasty and destructive as Abbott and Dutton?

I get why people don't vote greens, I rarely do in the HOR,

but I just don't get the hatred and vitriole towards them.

I detest anyone with extreme views, one way or another. Nothing good comes from extremists and what's more scary is that the extremist's supporters don't see them as extreme.

 

[easy_tiger]

I detest anyone with extreme views, one way or another. Nothing good comes from extremists and what's more scary is that the extremist's supporters don't see them as extreme.

Fair enough.

But you really can't differentiate between lock up little kids indefinitely until they go irretrievably PTSD extreme, and ban coal extreme?

Could you point out the extreme stuff De Natalie has done to warrant hatred and vitriol?

I really want to understand this.

 

[Baloo]

Can I not detest them both?

 

[easy_tiger]

Can I not detest them both?

totally.

I detest most politicians.

Im just trying to understand the Green hatred.

by way of reciprocity, Im happy to detail the reasons, irrational and otherwise, for my hatred of any politician.

 

[Baloo]

totally.

I detest most politicians.

Im just trying to understand the Green hatred.

by way of reciprocity, Im happy to detail the reasons, irrational and otherwise, for my hatred of any politician.

Pretty sure I've said why I detest anyone with extreme views. I'm not in any way interested in having a debate of which extremist is less palatable than the other, they are both extremes and both in the same bucket from where I sit in the unrepresented confused centre.

 

[easy_tiger]

Pretty sure I've said why I detest anyone with extreme views. I'm not in any way interested in having a debate of which extremist is less palatable than the other, they are both extremes and both in the same bucket from where I sit in the unrepresented confused centre.

fair enough

I rarely seek shelter under the fat bit of the bell curve.

but we are all different.

 

[AngryAnt]

I'll add to my comments by saying, despite the stronger One Nation support, it doesn't appear to have translated into more seats......yet.

No, not yet... hard for them to get enough primaries and preferences to win, at least at the present time. Compare to the UK's first past the post system - UKIP/Brexit/Lib Dems and smaller parties can win with this system but harder here. Although with PHON etc becoming more popular i guess it becomes more likely in certain seats if they have preference deals with libs/nats.

But here's the thing. It may well do in future. As you point out, the L-NP, ALP vote combined continues to trend down, meaning we are at all time lows in primary votes combined, going to major parties (only around 62-65% and trending down). Our preferential voting system continues to shield them for now. But if this trend continues, will we see this splintering of the vote actually translating into more political representation of these minor parties? Perhaps.

It could be a situation in future that we end up with quite a sizable cross bench of left leaning independents and Greens in combination with One Nation

This is a definite possibility I reckon

 

[AngryAnt]

It will probably happen with a reversal of the decision refusing him to build a rail line to carry his coal in the Galilee Basin, it will be the best $80 million Mud Guts has ever spent easy.

Yeah. This was all he wanted.

The easiest way to get rich in Australia is to buy resource rich land and then get it rezoned so you can exploit it. This is how Clive made his money.

 

[Baloo]

fair enough

I rarely seek shelter under the fat bit of the bell curve.

but we are all different.

And there we go, the condescension from the left. Just one of the reasons the left helped vote ScoMo back in.

 

[tigerman]

Yeah. This was all he wanted.

The easiest way to get rich in Australia is to buy resource rich land and then get it rezoned so you can exploit it. This is how Clive made his money.

Even though he will probably still get what he wants, i'm so glad he didn't win a seat in the senate.

 

[easy_tiger]

And there we go, the condescension from the left. Just one of the reasons the left helped vote ScoMo back in.

wasn't condescending at all.

you do know how a bell curve works?

you legitimately said you don't like a low ceilings at the two ends.

I don't mind ducking a bit at one end.

where is the condescension?

I basically said 95% of people agree with you and Im weird :headscratch

but believe me when I say,

I didnt help vote ScoMo back in

 

[HR]

The greens are divisive and myopic in their approach to their influence.

They are not "green" anymore.

If you want support you need to earn it. Dont burn the people you need support from. The big users in the cities across the country, the miners, the gas fields, mum and dad on a Monday getting cheaper fuel than on a Tuesday.

Be prepared to offer timelines that are achievable and be consultative with the stakeholders who require support to see the change happen without making their lives worse off. Considering it is a largely uncontrollable action on a personal level.

Di Natale speaks for a minority, a minority of hypocritical "do gooders". No amount of speak will make the lives better for those that currently require the energy we use today.

A green supporter who travels a 5 hour Flight or drives a 13 hour ride in a car to protest climate change is nothing more than a hypocrite. Their life will not be affected like the small country town boy or girl who cannot get a job. These so called activists are so far removed from reality they are hated in the plaaces they think they are protecting. Country people chastise these people because they live in a world with all the benefits that are created from what they choose to destroy.

The greens need to return to what made them appealing, have a look at Zali Steggall. She has tried to unit people on a change without the rhetoric of the greens. It worked for her and it will work for others. In fact she is probably more green than the greens!

The market is here now for a green party but the current mob do themselves no favour.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

No, not yet... hard for them to get enough primaries and preferences to win, at least at the present time. Compare to the UK's first past the post system - UKIP/Brexit/Lib Dems and smaller parties can win with this system but harder here. Although with PHON etc becoming more popular i guess it becomes more likely in certain seats if they have preference deals with libs/nats.


This is a definite possibility I reckon

The thing with One Nation. In NSW they are probably a slightly different beast to QLD. With Mark Latham joining and winning a State seat, and hence, being the face of their party in NSW. It perhaps goes some way to legitimising the party to a decent chunk of NSW, blue collar, traditionally ALP voters. And strengthens their position. If Mark Latham sticks it out as part of One Nation, I could conceivably see something like them pensioning Pauline Hanson off and recruiting Jacquie Lambie to their fold as part of their evolution to try an make themselves a similar sized force to the Greens.

 

[tigersnake]

And there we go, the condescension from the left. Just one of the reasons the left helped vote ScoMo back in.

and preciousness and glass jaws from the right? I think reason and sense get mistaken for or miss labelled as condescension when people don't like the message, but deep down they know its right. EG climate change. People know we can't keep building massive coal mines with global impacts for the sake of a few local jobs. But they don't like being told that or don't want to admit it, or both. Its understandable. I hate when my ute beeps to tell me to put my seatbelt on, sometimes I just click it in behind my back.