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Talking Politics
- Thread starter Legends of 2017
- Start date
Spoke to a Bulgarian friend last night who has family in Ukraine. He didn't seem too worried and expected it to be relatively bloodless after a few initial skirmishes. He suspects the Ukraine Army will quickly know what sort of a chance they have of keeping the Russians at bay.
The east of Ukraine is pretty much a Russian speaking region with a majority of ethnic Russians living there. There is a decent amount of support for Putin in Ukraine.
What he's more confused about is the whole geopolitical situation, especially China's position on this. He's betting China make a move on Taiwan soon with Russia not uttering a word about it.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. One thing for certain is that we'll get a few announcements from ScoMo, Dutton and Frydenberg, chests out, letting us know that with WWIII beckoning, we should change government.
The east of Ukraine is pretty much a Russian speaking region with a majority of ethnic Russians living there. There is a decent amount of support for Putin in Ukraine.
What he's more confused about is the whole geopolitical situation, especially China's position on this. He's betting China make a move on Taiwan soon with Russia not uttering a word about it.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. One thing for certain is that we'll get a few announcements from ScoMo, Dutton and Frydenberg, chests out, letting us know that with WWIII beckoning, we should change government.
It is not that hard to work out what Putin wants, he has said what he wants.
Putin, in a long Russian tradition, wants to control the smaller states around him. He definitely wants to prevent having Ukraine in NATO, right on his border. Russia has always been pretty paranoid about its borders, not surprising when you consider just how long a land border they have. Plus, Russia would be looking at the post-cold war world and an expanded NATO on his doorstep, while the East dismantled the Warsaw Pact, and wondering why they have to put up with a large military alliance on their doorstep even though the cold war ended decades ago.
Add to this some expansionist desires, some general paranoia, domestic political considerations etc and you end up with the sabre rattling by Putin.
The question really is, how far will Putin go? I can't really see any scenario where a full scale war actually benefits Putin or Russia. That's not to say he won't do it, but I wouldn't think that is the desired outcome. To some extent he painted himself into a corner by amassing troops on the border, what was he to do next? It was a case of either invade or withdraw or leave them there for no apparent reason. Recognising the break-away parts of Ukraine was a sly move and allowed him to invade without invading. I am not convinced he will go any further.
The problem now is that Putin has not got his way in terms of preventing Ukraine from possibly joining NATO and potentially being a bit of a pain the arse on his border. He wants a compliant Ukraine but the way to get that is not so clear. By putting troops into what he now considers to be not a part of Ukraine he has at least set up a way to save face by stating all he ever wanted was to protect the Russians in the East of Ukraine (peace keeping!). In any case, this is Europe, borders move around all the time, something easy to forget when you live on an island which is all one country.
We'll see but I might go looking for some non-western perspectives as it is always good to have more than one assessment of the situation.
DS
Putin, in a long Russian tradition, wants to control the smaller states around him. He definitely wants to prevent having Ukraine in NATO, right on his border. Russia has always been pretty paranoid about its borders, not surprising when you consider just how long a land border they have. Plus, Russia would be looking at the post-cold war world and an expanded NATO on his doorstep, while the East dismantled the Warsaw Pact, and wondering why they have to put up with a large military alliance on their doorstep even though the cold war ended decades ago.
Add to this some expansionist desires, some general paranoia, domestic political considerations etc and you end up with the sabre rattling by Putin.
The question really is, how far will Putin go? I can't really see any scenario where a full scale war actually benefits Putin or Russia. That's not to say he won't do it, but I wouldn't think that is the desired outcome. To some extent he painted himself into a corner by amassing troops on the border, what was he to do next? It was a case of either invade or withdraw or leave them there for no apparent reason. Recognising the break-away parts of Ukraine was a sly move and allowed him to invade without invading. I am not convinced he will go any further.
The problem now is that Putin has not got his way in terms of preventing Ukraine from possibly joining NATO and potentially being a bit of a pain the arse on his border. He wants a compliant Ukraine but the way to get that is not so clear. By putting troops into what he now considers to be not a part of Ukraine he has at least set up a way to save face by stating all he ever wanted was to protect the Russians in the East of Ukraine (peace keeping!). In any case, this is Europe, borders move around all the time, something easy to forget when you live on an island which is all one country.
We'll see but I might go looking for some non-western perspectives as it is always good to have more than one assessment of the situation.
DS
Or even why has Trump spent so long barking about Biden's son in the Ukraine?
Was it just point scoring?
Now anything Biden does to support Ukraine/prevent war the Republicans will claim its to protect his son's (supposed) corrupt activity.
He's caught up
That's it.....it's WAR!!
The Shovel having a field day:
Morrison offers to help Ukraine by sending in elite special photo ops team
"They can be dropped into any location and have an operation up and running in minutes"
www.theshovel.com.au
Australia sends Tony Abbott to have man-to-man with Putin — The Shovel
"Let's see if we can't sort this out over a beer and a few onions"
www.theshovel.com.au
Ukraine turns down Australian cyber support: “We’re a bit past dial-up”
"Being at war with Russia is bad enough"
www.theshovel.com.au
So, the U.S. stood outside Russia's house with a baseball bat and kebab in hand.
Russia said buggar off.
The U.S. took a bite out of their kebab and waited.
Russia says okay, well I'm just going to setup a tent on the nature strip. Independent peacekeepers.
U.S. shouts out Russia's aggressive tactics for the neighbours to hear.
Neighbourhood tapes up Russia's mailbox and hands out eggs to children gathered around to watch.
China stands with the neighbourhood, but doesn't take an egg. Looks nervously across the road at their own mailbox.
Russia shoots self in foot, house drops in value, and neighbours establish new deals when Russia isn't checking their mail.
The U.S. pops open a 77yo bottle of whiskey.
Russia said buggar off.
The U.S. took a bite out of their kebab and waited.
Russia says okay, well I'm just going to setup a tent on the nature strip. Independent peacekeepers.
U.S. shouts out Russia's aggressive tactics for the neighbours to hear.
Neighbourhood tapes up Russia's mailbox and hands out eggs to children gathered around to watch.
China stands with the neighbourhood, but doesn't take an egg. Looks nervously across the road at their own mailbox.
Russia shoots self in foot, house drops in value, and neighbours establish new deals when Russia isn't checking their mail.
The U.S. pops open a 77yo bottle of whiskey.
I don't think that China will invade Taiwan. China would be a lot more suseptable to sanctions than Russia. When was the last time you bought something made in Russia that wasn't Vodka?
I preferred it when he was welding. Was kinda hoping he'd fry his eyes a little bit when lifting his mask to try n see where to put his little hot tip.
That's one school of thought. The other is that he realised his photo op wasn't going to be as expected with his face covered.
The Shovel having a field day:
Morrison offers to help Ukraine by sending in elite special photo ops team
"They can be dropped into any location and have an operation up and running in minutes"
Australia sends Tony Abbott to have man-to-man with Putin — The Shovel
"Let's see if we can't sort this out over a beer and a few onions"
Ukraine turns down Australian cyber support: “We’re a bit past dial-up”
"Being at war with Russia is bad enough"
Wow, priceless, the photo ops and the NBN just really nailed it.
I saw a news item tonight on the ABC, they were reporting Biden's statement and how he didn't deliver it very well. All true, but, the really pertinent question is, what should the USA do?
The USA is committed (uncommitted?) to not sending troops in to support Ukraine. This is a consensus in the USA as far as I can tell. So, apart from sanctions, what else is there? They have put in limited sanctions as Russia have done a limited invasion. If they put in full sanctions now they would have nowhere to go and Russia has no disincentive to going all the way to Kiev.
But, maybe they could militarily support Ukraine. Russia has threatened to invade but has not done so yet - US troops on the border? Ok, that would likely work and the US could handle that, they would be defending a border not trying to topple a regime, something they have stuffed up a few times. So, ignoring the fact this won't happen and the Republicans would have a field day if it did, is this really viable? Well, not really. Yes the US could get troops over there, but where do they get them from? The USA is way more worried about China, which is reasonable as China is the only challenge to US hegemony, so they really don't want to be over-committing to putting resources into Europe and leave Asia less defended. Putin and Xi met recently, you reckon they weren't interested in sorting out some mutually beneficial scenarios?
Maybe the US could bomb the Russian troops and tanks. Hmm, yeah, this isn't the former Yugoslavia, the Russians are a far bigger military problem than a civil war. There would be reprisals.
You have to hand it to Putin, he wants Ukraine, or at least a compliant regime in Ukraine. He knows it is a far bigger concern for him than anyone else apart from the Ukraneians. So, he knows he can push the envelope a very long way before he faces any serious repercussions.
Difficult situation. Of course NATO could defend Ukraine's border . . . oh . . . wait a minute, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Almost makes the point for Putin and why he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO and sit on his border.
All in all this is not a simple situation.
We'll see how it develops.
DS