Talking Politics

[Panthera Tigris]

Are you more like the Pug of Punt Road?

Something pretty conservative like that, yes. It's really not as glamorous and wanky as the cliches people have come into their head, when I explain to friends of friends what I do for work.

Thank goodness you didn't tar me with "The Poodle of Punt Road" though.

 

[Baloo]

Something pretty conservative like that, yes. It's really not as glamorous and wanky as the clichespeople have come into their head, when I explain to friends of friends what I do for work.

Thank goodness you didn't tar me with "The Poodle of Punt Road" though.

When supporting the trading floor in the mid 90s, the Government Bonds desk was the desk you went to for some peace and quiet. But they had the most boring parties on the floor.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

When supporting the trading floor in the mid 90s, the Government Bonds desk was the desk you went to for some peace and quiet. But they had the most boring parties on the floor.

Yeah in the early 2000s I worked for a bank in a support role for these types of financial instruments (perhaps similar to you in the 90s), so know exactly what you are saying. But now I work on the other side of the ledger, perhaps even duller .

 

[Baloo]

perhaps even duller .

Not sure that's possible

Trading floors aren't what they used to be. It's nearly all done with technology these days and the floors are no longer floors. Shame really, the parties the traders would throw, almost daily, were stuff of legends.

 

[eZyT]

Not sure that's possible

Trading floors aren't what they used to be. It's nearly all done with technology these days and the floors are no longer floors. Shame really, the parties the traders would throw, almost daily, were stuff of legends.

by all accounts @caesar used to be an animal on the floor.

A sauce told me his signature move after a big win, was he'd dump a big bag of coke on the ground and walk through it in his prototype Yeezys, bust a full blown 80's street hiphop helicopter backspin, and all his colleagues would stand down wind, their noses up in the clouds chanting funky hot medina

He grabbed some icing sugar from the kitchen at The London one night and showed us

I'd never seen anything quite like it.

 

[shad]

So more "Libs better at economy than ALP" narrative to be expected in 2025 ?

I'm not quite convinced that this is going to be a good election to win.

 

[K3]

Its only gonna get worse, for the foreseeable future I fear.

Saw petrol for $2.23 on the way home tonight...

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Saw petrol for $2.23 on the way home tonight...

Was watching a commodities analyst interviewed on the ABC News channel. She was saying how at this stage it’s actually only a section of the world placing an embargo on Russian oil (and other energy commodities). And even with that, the price of petroleum has gone above $2.20, as we have witnessed. If it goes beyond this kind of token embargo and becomes more wide spread. Petroleum prices will go well beyond $3.00 per litre. If it was a genuine global embargo (unlikely, given China, India and others probably would never participate, plus enforcing an embargo on the entire Russian frontier would be impossible), her modelling had oil going beyond $300 per barrel.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Was watching a commodities analyst interviewed on the ABC News channel. She was saying how at this stage it’s actually only a section of the world placing an embargo on Russian oil (and other energy commodities). And even with that, the price of oil has gone above $2.20, as we have witnessed. If it goes beyond this kind of token embargo and becomes more wide spread. Petroleum prices will go well beyond $3.00 per litre. If it was a genuine global embargo (unlikely, given China, India and others probably would never participate, plus enforcing an embargo in the entire Russian frontier would be impossible), her modelling had oil going beyond $300 per barrel.

Great time to be an oil producing nation. Certain countries cutting back their production to save the world. Other countries simply not ramping up their production to cover for the short fall. Half the world pretending their going to ban Russian oil and gas usage n all of a sudden the price of crude goes through the roof. Old mate numpty at the bowser trying to get enough fuel to get to work each day n visit friends or rello's on the weekend just needs to bend over a little bit further again.

 

[TigerForce]

Saw petrol for $2.23 on the way home tonight...

Same here K3. Lucky I filled up 2 days ago at 189.9

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Great time to be an oil producing nation. Certain countries cutting back their production to save the world. Other countries simply not ramping up their production to cover for the short fall. Half the world pretending their going to ban Russian oil and gas usage n all of a sudden the price of crude goes through the roof. Old mate numpty at the bowser trying to get enough fuel to get to work each day n visit friends or rello's on the weekend just needs to bend over a little bit further again.

And of course all of that ironically means that the embargo in its current form doesn’t really hurt Russia. They benefit from selling at the high price to the countries still purchasing from them. That’s not to say a raft of other sanctions aren’t hurting.

 

[Baloo]

And of course all of that ironically means that the embargo in its current form doesn’t really hurt Russia. They benefit from selling at the high price to the countries still purchasing from them. That’s not to say a raft of other sanctions aren’t hurting.

Wait till the Oligarchs have to be chauffeured around in Ladas

 

[Panthera Tigris]

And of course all of that ironically means that the embargo in its current form doesn’t really hurt Russia. They benefit from selling at the high price to the countries still purchasing from them. That’s not to say a raft of other sanctions aren’t hurting.

The other thing I was thinking today. The commodity trading vultures….uhem…..I mean firms. The likes of Glencore, Trafigura, Vitol, Cargil etc. They would be loving the dynamics at present. It’s the perfect storm for them to exploit and make obscene profits.

The volatility allows them to take speculative positions. The geopolitical upheaval with embargoes - they tend to concoct all sorts of creative and innovative ways to purchase forbidden merchandise, mix it up with other stock they own and on sell with no one being the wiser as to where the products really originated from. Of course, they will take the forbidden merchandise at a price that reflects the risk, to then sell it at market rates.

And then of course we have the desperation in both energy and food commodities coming from poorer nations that they tend to exploit.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Wait till the Oligarchs have to be chauffeured around in Ladas

Hopefully at that point they decide to contract a bullet to Tsar Vlad’s head.

 

[shad]

My understanding is that other oil producing countries will increase production as soon as they can because there is a sweet spot for the oil price in relation to the uptake of electric vehicles. Current prices will act to massively accelerate the shift to EVs-which the major oil produces obviously don't want. They're playing the long game on this.

 

[TigerMasochist]

My understanding is that other oil producing countries will increase production as soon as they can

It's crude they're pumping out of the ground, can't take that long to turn the pumps up from go really slow to go just a bit faster, or perhaps turn all the pumps on instead of just a couple.

Minimize supply = maximize $ plus there's the added benefit of keeping some in the ground for later while also pretending to save the planet's greenliness by rationing supply.

 

[MB78]

A sudden death throws Labor's plans in the air, but both parties have a troubled path to the election

Kimberley Kitching fought as hard as the boys. She knew how to land a political blow, even if it was on her own side of politics. Her death might have prompted some to decry back room political tactics, but don't expect that to change how the parties operate any time soon, writes political...

www.abc.net.au

Very unfortunate death this. Seems to be some blame at the stress caused by ALP socialist left. Albo is copping it in with some from the right in the ALP.

 

[spook]

A sudden death throws Labor's plans in the air, but both parties have a troubled path to the election

Kimberley Kitching fought as hard as the boys. She knew how to land a political blow, even if it was on her own side of politics. Her death might have prompted some to decry back room political tactics, but don't expect that to change how the parties operate any time soon, writes political...

www.abc.net.au

Very unfortunate death this. Seems to be some blame at the stress caused by ALP socialist left. Albo is copping it in with some from the right in the ALP.

From the article:

In 2019, the ABC revealed Kitching was the victim of an attack from a senior member of the Left faction, who said: "If you had children, you might understand why there is a climate emergency".

Uh, Brett, that's not an attack.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

My understanding is that other oil producing countries will increase production as soon as they can because there is a sweet spot for the oil price in relation to the uptake of electric vehicles. Current prices will act to massively accelerate the shift to EVs-which the major oil produces obviously don't want. They're playing the long game on this.

Really interesting points made on this in the same interview with the commodities and energy analyst, that I spoke about earlier.

She said that yes the acceleration of EV take up was a definite possibility and she made clear from a personal point of view, that she saw that as a silver lining, as she personally wants to see the transition for environmental reasons.

However she did have a warning to those jumping up and down with glee at the prospect.

The discussion was based around how an extra point often made is that we must get away from fossil fuels for strategic energy security reasons. As in, get away from our vulnerability to Middle Eastern and Eastern European geopolitics. But switching to renewables is not quite the panacea on this front that popular perception seems to believe. The reason being because the vast majority of the components needed to harness renewable energy are manufactured in China. So the vulnerabilities then just switch from one set of geopolitical issues, to another. That’s of course, unless manufacturing capacity is ramped up from virtually scratch in western countries to fulfil their own needs.

Something that would take many years to establish (if even possible without the required scale) and would mean at significantly greater cost. Not that it’s totally inconceivable that this could be achieved - in theory. But people need to understand the consequences of paying much higher prices to harness renewable energy via domestic reliance. Plus it wasn’t just the manufacturing element. Chinese interests own many of the raw material deposits required to manufacture renewable energy technology too. Both in China itself, and abroad - in Africa and Latin America.

 

[MD Jazz]

Really interesting points made on this in the same interview with the commodities and energy analyst, that I spoke about earlier.

She said that yes the acceleration of EV take up was a definite possibility and she made clear from a personal point of view, that she saw that as a silver lining, as she personally wants to see the transition for environmental reasons.

However she did have a warning to those jumping up and down with glee at the prospect.

The discussion was based around how an extra point often made is that we must get away from fossil fuels for strategic energy security reasons. As in, get away from our vulnerability to Middle Eastern and Eastern European geopolitics. But switching to renewables is not quite the panacea on this front that popular perception seems to believe. The reason being because the vast majority of the components needed to harness renewable energy are manufactured in China. So the vulnerabilities then just switch from one set of geopolitical issues, to another. That’s of course, unless manufacturing capacity is ramped up from virtually scratch in western countries to fulfil their own needs.

Something that would take many years to establish (if even possible without the required scale) and would mean at significantly greater cost. Not that it’s totally inconceivable that this could be achieved - in theory. But people need to understand the consequences of paying much higher prices to harness renewable energy via domestic reliance. Plus it wasn’t just the manufacturing element. Chinese interests own many of the raw material deposits required to manufacture renewable energy technology too. Both in China itself, and abroad - in Africa and Latin America.

Yeh, China is the biggest infrastructure investor in Africa, even before the Belt and Road initiative.

I imagine as less people are required in the manufacturing process the cost advantages of operating in low wage environments are significantly reduced. Perhaps local manufacturing will make some sort of comeback in Aust in the next decade?

With importing costs at all time highs, and unlikely to reduce anytime soon, it does incentivise businesses to look local.