Talking Politics | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Talking Politics

Panthera Tigris

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Apr 27, 2010
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Yes. I stated similar in an earlier post. It was the best bang for buck, effective solution. Don’t get me wrong. Not an enormous amount of love for Abbott. But he pretty much had the deal done until Poodle Pyne and friends revolted at the lack of SA content.
IMO should have gone with the Japanese from the start.


Japanese off the shelf option for proven, well performed subs estimated to be $20bn for 12 vessels vs $80bn for the highly speculative French venture. And the subs would have started rolling off the production line nearly by now.

Sure, they don’t give the range to be able to get to Taiwan. But do we really need that capability? If the focus is your core business - denial of access to Australian sea lanes and landmass. The range of the Japanese subs was perfectly adequate.

And as I have seen Hugh White and other analysts infer. The Japanese option may have been 12 in the initial order. But if strategic circumstances warranted it, at that pricing point, we could have afforded to grow the fleet of Soryu subs to two dozen or even low 30s.

Regarding range. I have heard it discussed that on the western seaboard there probably should be a forward operating base at Exmouth in WA (tying in with the already existing forward operating RAAF Learmonth - a so called, ‘bare base’ - 35km away). And on the Eastern seaboard I have seen the port of Bundaberg suggested as a potential forward operating Naval base. There are reasons why Perth and Sydney are used as our primary bases. But you do give up some potential capabilities by doing so.
 
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Al Bundy

Premiers 2017, 2019, 2020 ...2021?
Aug 27, 2003
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Im just speaking from a hunch,

but I reckon we were getting completely bent over by the French.

an Australian senator (cant recall who) was devoting themselves just to get a look at the contract,

and Australian and French lawyers devoted themselves, probably at $5k/hr,

to not letting him see it.

costs went from $50b to $90b before they even discussed the style of bathroom taps and periscope finish.

screams super-dodgy.

without speaking to the new deal,

I think we might have dodged a torpedo on this one.
Quite interesting the way its being reported. Taking the French pissed off point of view like they didnt know and were blindsided.
Then on some reports (not all) they do finally mention that Scomo had clearly warned Marcron during a dinner in June?(roughly) that this submarine contract was being reviewed and it was a distinct possibility it could get cancelled as they were weighing up options. So France was warned & not blindsided.
 

Al Bundy

Premiers 2017, 2019, 2020 ...2021?
Aug 27, 2003
7,141
616
Melbourne
Japanese off the shelf option for proven, well performed subs estimated to be $20bn for 12 vessels vs $80bn for the highly speculative French venture. And the subs would have started rolling off the production line nearly by now.

Sure, they don’t give the range to be able to get to Taiwan. But do we really need that capability? If the focus is your core business - denial of access to Australian sea lanes and landmass. The range of the Japanese subs was perfectly adequate.

And as I have seen Hugh White and other analysts infer. The Japanese option may have been 12 in the initial order. But if strategic circumstances warranted it, at that pricing point, we could have afforded to grow the fleet of Soryu subs to two dozen or even low 30s.
Maybe we can still order a few too to patrol around Aust coastline as well. get a mixture of subs type. These sound good
 
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craig

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Aug 19, 2004
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Submarines are not defensive weapons they are offensive.

No point having limited ranges on subs which require refueling constantly and that cant deliver longer range offensive capability.

In our modern world, offensive capability is the defensive deterrent.
 
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craig

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Aug 19, 2004
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Melbourne
Dutton is defence minister now isn't he? He would have had a big say in this. No surprise it's been handled with no diplomatic grace.

As for the French, *smile* em. Still haven't forgiven them for their nuclear tests on Mururoa Atoll
One of the early big News Items I recall from my childhood years along with the Moscow Olympics, The Gordon Franklin Dam fight, the Iran Iraq War and the Falklands War, in the early to mid 80's the atoll testing from the Pacific.

Culminating in the Rainbow Warrior getting hit by either the French or associated Covert Agency if I remember correctly.
 

Panthera Tigris

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2010
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Submarines are not defensive weapons they are offensive.

No point having limited ranges on subs which require refueling constantly and that cant deliver longer range offensive capability.

In our modern world, offensive capability is the defensive deterrent.
True. Although the Soryu class range is not like they are just piddling about in river mouths. And by combining it with northern forward operating bases, you still create a significant capability.

On that note (of offensive deterrents). I did read about a year ago an article about the history of nuclear testing in Australia.

When the British were testing nuclear weapons in Australia in the 1950s. There was a school of thought, that as a quid pro quo, it would be a joint venture where Australia got our own modest sized independent nuclear deterrent.

Secret documents released since, suggest that the US embassy talked cabinet out of this option. By keeping us under their security guarantee and nuclear umbrella, they effectively coerced us into ceding a degree of autonomy on foreign policy.
 
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craig

Tiger Legend
Aug 19, 2004
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True. Although the Soryu class range is not like they are just piddling about in river mouths. And by combining it with northern forward operating bases, you still create a significant capability.

On that note (of offensive deterrents). I did read about a year ago an article about the history of nuclear testing in Australia.

When the British were testing nuclear weapons in Australia in the 1950s. There was a school of thought, that as a quid pro quo, it would be a joint venture where Australia got our own modest sized independent nuclear deterrent.

Secret documents released since, suggest that the US embassy talked cabinet out of this option. By keeping us under their security guarantee and nuclear umbrella, they effectively coerced us into ceding a degree of autonomy on foreign policy.
Agree on the Jap Boats PT the Soryu were the obvious choice when looking for a proven non nuclear Sub.

The deal with the French didnt make sense to me at the time.

The Japs can certainly build a ship and have one of the better and larger fleets going around.

The Soryu I initially thought would walk it in when the tender process was announced.
 
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Panthera Tigris

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2010
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Agree on the Jap Boats PT the Soryu were the obvious choice when looking for a proven non nuclear Sub.

The deal with the French didnt make sense to me at the time.

The Japs can certainly build a ship and have one of the better and larger fleets going around.

The Soryu I initially thought would walk it in when the tender process was announced.
One issue seems to be that we handicap ourselves somewhat by operating out of Perth and Sydney.

For years there has been talk of establishing a more significant RAN forward operating base at Exmouth in WA and on the Eastern seaboard, options like Bundaberg or Gladstone in QLD have been mentioned. This would give greater strategic capability and flexibility.

However there are reasons for Perth and Sydney. Contrary to common perception the main motivation isn’t being further from harm’s way. Bundaberg or Exmouth are not as far north as say Darwin, Broome or Cairns. It’s more to do with personnel retention. Both uniformed and civilian technical contractors.
 
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craig

Tiger Legend
Aug 19, 2004
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One issue seems to be that we handicap ourselves somewhat by operating out of Perth and Sydney.

For years there has been talk of establishing a more significant RAN forward operating base at Exmouth in WA and on the Eastern seaboard, options like Bundaberg or Gladstone in QLD have been mentioned. This would give greater strategic capability and flexibility.

However there are reasons for Perth and Sydney. Contrary to common perception the main motivation isn’t being further from harm’s way. Bundaberg or Exmouth are not as far north as say Darwin, Broome or Cairns. It’s more to do with personnel retention. Both uniformed and civilian technical contractors.
Some very salient points there mate.

Good stuff.
 
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tigerman

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Mar 17, 2003
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Have never been able to work out the logic of our Submarines operating out of Wa, but maintained in South Australia.
 

22nd Man

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Dutton is defence minister now isn't he? He would have had a big say in this. No surprise it's been handled with no diplomatic grace.

As for the French, *smile* em. Still haven't forgiven them for their nuclear tests on Mururoa Atoll
According to AbC the process had begun before Dutton got the Defence job.
 

artball

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Jul 30, 2013
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The Libs have been standing on a few toes lately.

Diplomacy is not one Morrison's strong suits, you'd think with his marketing background he'd be pretty good at getting on the phone.
clumsiest Govt of all time

re: Scotty - what, to say "where the bloody hell are ya?" .... he's a F Wit of the highest order, and a god fearing puppet ..
 
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Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
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Pretty clear from the French reaction and Birmingham on Insiders this morning that we were not upfront about this with them at all.
Apparently the first they heard of it was the night before the announcement when Dutton called his French counterpart.
 

artball

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Apparently the first they heard of it was the night before the announcement when Dutton called his French counterpart.
this Govt are a combination of stupid, entitled and clumsy.
which is quite possibly a very dangerous brew
 
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TT33

Yellow & Black Member
Feb 17, 2004
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this Govt are a combination of stupid, entitled and clumsy.
which is quite possibly a very dangerous brew

You've missed a few arty, add these to the list, corrupt, incompetent, sneaky, corrupt, liars, corrupt, misogynistic, corrupt, shameless & did I mention they're corrupt.
 
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tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
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You've missed a few arty, add these to the list, corrupt, incompetent, sneaky, corrupt, liars, corrupt, misogynistic, corrupt, shameless & did I mention they're corrupt.
And that’s their good points TT33
 
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