EBT - When there is a material and real risk of draft picks at selection 19 not making it (as demonstrated by Tiger 17) the factor of taking the easy option just doesn't come into play. I look at this problem the way the same way as when I need to hire someone. Hiring from within is preferable to hiring externally as there are too many unknowns with external hiring.
If we were to take the philosophy of only accepting the very best, we would limit ourselves to 1 or 2 selections each year. IMO - once you get past the very few superstars in early in the first round of the ND, all players selected afterwards have a relatively equal chance of making it - and by default an equal chance of not making it (someone will probably have data to refute this).