The Race for the 8 - Last 4 Games for the Contenders | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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The Race for the 8 - Last 4 Games for the Contenders

Feb 25, 2007
12,536
6,135
Well, this is it, teams falling over around the top 8 to cement a place. Can we make it?
The draw looks favourable when compared to other teams remaining games. I think we'll sneak in.

I've highlighted the games that matter, Richmond, West Coast, GWS, Essendon, Fremantle and St.Kilda.
Dimma says Prestia will play next week. Vlustuin is 50/50 but I reckon he'll play the following week along with Macintosh V North
That leaves Balta, Broad and Houli to come back before finals if we make it. Dusty as we know out for the season.


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Columbo

Tiger Matchwinner
Oct 4, 2007
600
216
There’s only 6 games that matter.
Our four (we obviously have to win all, which knocks out GWS), then ESS have to lose to either Syd or Bulldogs.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
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I gave the ladder prediction a go, of course, I gave the tigers the 4 wins on the run home.

RD 23 (Ladder Predictor)


Ladder Prediction_RD23.jpg
 

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
29,896
12,166
We,re not going to win all 4. Maybe 2. North and Hawthorn aren’t easybeats.
 
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seven

Super Tiger
Apr 20, 2004
26,339
12,215
I had us winning against GC and collingwobbles.
Obviously we lost both of them.
No idea how we’ll go from here.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
12,536
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So we could win all 4 and still miss?

No, win all 4 and we'll make it. We could almost still drop a game and make it with 11 wins. Our % ain't too bad when compared to the others only Ess have more with eagles similar to us, but Bombers & GWS run home tougher than ours.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
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7. West Coast
40 points (10 wins, eight losses), 98.6 per cent

The Eagles strengthened their grip on a top-eight spot and proved they were "up for the fight" with a gritty eight-point win against St Kilda, importantly seeing off one of their competitors for the last two finals spots. Liam Ryan's hamstring injury is a blow for a team that is having soft tissue setbacks almost weekly. The Eagles will be favoured to beat Collingwood next week, but their low percentage right now means the job of securing a finals spot won't feel completely done if they win. Difficult games loom against Melbourne and Brisbane and the round 22 Western Derby shapes as a high stakes clash for both clubs with finals spots on the line. - Nathan Schmook

The run home
R20: Collingwood @ MCG
R21: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R22: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R23: Brisbane @ Gabba


8. Greater Western Sydney
34 points (eight wins, nine losses, one draw), 96.6 per cent

The Giants now have their finals destiny in their own hands, with their gritty 13-point victory over the Bombers on Sunday catapulting them inside the top eight. The bad news is they have a difficult run over the next fortnight, with matches against premiership fancies Port Adelaide and Geelong sure to test their September credentials. The good news is that they face winnable matches against Richmond and Carlton over the final two rounds, which loom as decisive for Leon Cameron's side. - Jonathan Healy

The run home
R20: Port Adelaide @ TBC
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Richmond @ TBC
R23: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium


9. Essendon
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 103.7 per cent

The Bombers missed a massive chance to strengthen their finals claims when they lost to the Giants on Sunday night and now face the prospect of a difficult run home and another year without September football. The Dons will probably need to snag an upset victory over the next fortnight against premiership fancies the Western Bulldogs and Sydney, while they have winnable matches in the final two rounds against Gold Coast and Collingwood. - Jonathan Healy

The run home
R20: Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R23: Collingwood @ MCG


10. Richmond
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 98.2 per cent

Richmond's finals chances are hanging by a thread. However, in better news for the reigning premiers, a rather soft run home lies in wait. The club won't face another top-six side for the remainder of the year, though will endure two difficult road trips against Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney. If it can split those – and beat the lowly North Melbourne and Hawthorn on its home deck at the MCG – the Tigers will still be a fighting chance to make September. Never rule them out. - Riley Beveridge

The run home
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21: North Melbourne @ MCG
R22: GWS Giants @ TBC
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG


11. Fremantle
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 90.3 per cent

The Dockers were unable to capitalise on their strong start against the Swans and, with a second consecutive loss and injuries to Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters, now look unlikely to finish in the top eight. A round 10 win over the Swans is still the only time the Dockers have beaten a team now sitting in the eight but to reignite their finals hopes they will have to find that sort of form against Richmond, Brisbane and West Coast in the coming weeks. Even if the Dockers win those three matches, their poor percentage means they will probably also need to beat St Kilda in round 23 to extend their season. - Martin Pegan

The run home
R20: Richmond @ Optus Stadium
R21: Brisbane @ Optus Stadium
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium


12. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 86.9 per cent

Saturday's eight-point loss to West Coast was a hammer blow to the Saints' finals chances after a month-long run of good form. With the worst percentage of the teams still contending, they have left themselves with too much work to do, probably needing to win all four remaining games to make it. They'll be favoured to beat Carlton next week, but Sydney and Geelong back-to-back are significant challenges before a clash against a Fremantle team that could be playing for a finals spot itself. Rowan Marshall's return will be a massive boost and the Saints can't be discounted in any match with Max King in brilliant form. - Nathan Schmook

The run home
R20: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Sydney @ TBC
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium


 

Ridley

Tiger Legend
Jul 21, 2003
17,755
15,433
He says we have a soft run home. We've already been beaten by 3 teams that won't make the finals since the bye.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
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He says we have a soft run home. We've already been beaten by 3 teams that won't make the finals since the bye.

Yes but we also beat the Lions last week. Prestia will be back V Freo (Dockers lose both Fyfe and Walters), Macintosh and Vlustuin back V North RD 21
 

zippadeee

Tiger Legend
Oct 8, 2004
39,639
15,415
The way where looking someone needs to do a ladder predictor for the bottom 6.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
12,536
6,135
Can we play all our games at Metricon?

haha wouldn't mind, haven't been beaten at Metricon since 2017, 11 game winning streak.

The game against GWS is looking likely to be at Metricon as covid cases are still high (141 today) in NSW. Or AFL could have it here at MCG/Marvel
 

year of the tiger

Tiger Legend
Mar 26, 2008
9,445
6,513
Tasmania
It’s in our hands - win all 4 and we leap over GWS and into the 8.

We could even lose one and still make it but if we choose the GWS game to lose, I can’t see us getting there - the gods are smiling maybe as that game won’t be played in Sydney - where would the Giants want it moved to as I don’t think Canberra are putting their hand up yet.

First time for awhile, but we are actually playing a team this week that has been hit with more injuries than us - maybe the gods are feeling sorry for us.

If we can’t win the last 4 we don’t deserve to be there and honestly when was the last time a team won 8 in a row to win the flag, hmmm, I know, it’s was a while ago now - 2019 I think?
 
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TOT70

I'm just a suburban boy
Jul 27, 2004
9,734
3,802
Melbourne
Simple equation. Tigers have to win eight games in a row. Everything else is irrelevant.
 
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