The Run Home - Final 8 - Tigers-Saints-Blues-North

[AstuteTiger]

Well after the dissapointing loss on saturday ive thought about the final 8 games for the 4 teams vying for that final 8 spot...

The run home ive put a W for win and a L for lose for my thoughts on the win loss ratio for us and the other 3 teams...Plus my final 8 standings for rich, saints, blues and kangas...

Richmond V
WC (Subi) Win
Ess (MCG) Win
Lions (TD) Win - I think
Geel (TD) Lose
Adel (AAMI) Lose
Hawks (MCG) Lose
Freo (MCG) Win
Dees (MCG) Win

Points 42 - (10 1/2 wins)

Carlton V
Saints (MCG) Win - I think
Sydney (TD) Lose
Bulldogs (TD) Lose
Adel (AAMI) Lose
Port (TD) Win
North (TD) Win - I think
Brisb (Gabba) Lose
Hawks (TD) Lose

Points 40 pts - (10 wins)

North V
Port (AAMI) Lose
Pies (TD) Lose - Could go either way...
Melb (MCG) Win
Lions (GC) Lose
Dogs (TD) Lose
Blues (TD) Lose - Could go either way...
Geel (SS) Lose
Port (MCG) Win

Points 34 - (8 1/2) wins) If they beat blues and pies max 42 points - (10 1/2 wins)

Saints V
Carl (MCG) Lose - Could go either way...
Hawks (TD) Lose
WC (Subi) Win
Port (TD) Win
Pies (MCG) Lose
Freo (Subi) Win
Adel (TD) Lose
Ess (TD) Win - Could go either way...

Points 44...That last match V ess could get them to 44 pts and a place in the 8, lose and they'll likely finish on 40 pts (10 wins) and out of the 8...

So after 22 rounds, i have the saints just sneaking into the 8, richmond 9th unless we sneak a win against either geel, hawks or crows and make the 8, unlikely though considering the form of the cats, hawks and crows, yes theres always a chance and i hope we do make it...
I have carlton in 10th spot and North 11th, north could jump into 9th spot, if they win 2 games i have for them as could go "either way"...

If it happens to be that the saints finish 8th (44 pts) - Tigers 9th (42 pts) - Blues 10th (40 pts) and North 11th (34 pts) with a ? mark, could go to 42 pts!
The draw we had with the dogs and the saints loss are 6 points all up that we would love to have to lift us into the final 8...

As they say only time will tell, but im happy to my neck on the line and predict what i think will happen after 22 rounds....

 

[Charlie A]

Great post!
Agree. Think the Saints will make it with Richmond/North coming the dreaded 9th position. Losses against Adelaide, St K, Carlton and WB games which we really should have won has made it very hard to make the 8.
CA

 

[mb64]

Forget about finals,if we win 8-10 games we've had a reasonable year.We should beat WC,Ess,Freo & Melb.Lions is a possibilty.

 

[silver]

As mick Molloy said

2008 will be our best ninth ever!

 

[wayno]

You may want to have a look at Essendon's Run Home as well.

Not alot of hard games there.

I know they havent beaten much they dont play anyone really tough.

 

[GoodOne]

Essendon are basically 3 game out with their shocking percentage. Still have to play West Bulldogs, Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane. I give them next to no chance of making the 8.

Collingwood are interesting; Sydney twice, Adelaide and Hawthorn could all be difficult for them and St Kilda and North both vying for their position. Next game is critical for them against Swans. We could be looking at fighting for 7th and 8th here. A win for the Tigers was very important though. against Carlton. We are also now almost effectively 3 games outside the 8 so see it diffcult for u to make it.

Could easily see North and Saints for 7th and 8th knocking out Collingwood. Gee I wouldn't mind seeing that.

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Well after the dissapointing loss on saturday ive thought about the final 8 games for the 4 teams vying for that final 8 spot...

The run home ive put a W for win and a L for lose for my thoughts on the win loss ratio for us and the other 3 teams...Plus my final 8 standings for rich, saints, blues and kangas...

Richmond V
WC (Subi) Win
Ess (MCG) Win
Lions (TD) Win - I think
Geel (TD) Lose
Adel (AAMI) Lose
Hawks (MCG) Lose
Freo (MCG) Win
Dees (MCG) Win

Points 42 - (10 1/2 wins)

We won't win all of those games.

 

[TOT70]

The interesting team in this equation is Port Adelaide.

I think they have turned up their toes and have no intention of winning any more games. They don't have any room for anything other than "honourable losses" now and I think they will just wear a run of near misses. Nobody bothers to watch them anyway unless they are contending for finals so it is not as if they have to try to protect some home games to add a few dollars to the bottom line.

That means two gift wins for North and one each for Collingwood, Carlton and StKilda.

It also means a win each for Freo and Melbourne, but they will be able to absorb them easily under the Tanking Exchange Program as long as WC comes to the party and beats them both. Of course, they will not be able to beat anyone else!

It follows that there is no chance Tigers or Dons for finals and a very close tussle between Collingwood, Carlton, NM and Saints for the last two spots.

It also means there could quite easily be FOUR priority picks after the first round of the next draft.

 

[Rosy]

Like my friend Forest Gump said Richmond is like a box of chocolates...or at least I think he meant that.

I'd tick win for every game but nothing surprises me. We're just as likely to put in an outstanding performance when we're massive underdogs and lay down when we're odds on favourites.

For the sake of my sanity I'll just take it one week at a time.

 

[wayne]

Richmond V
WC (Subi) Win - The Eagles will be delighted Melbourne won and just need to lose another 4-5% and they have pick 1.
Ess (MCG) 50/50 - The Bombers are a different side to the one we manhandled in the first half of the round 9 match. They are up and about at the moment.
Lions (TD) 50/50 - We play well against the Lions in Melbourne, and this one is not out of the question.
Geel (TD) Lose - No chance
Adel (AAMI) 50/50 - It all depends on the situation. If the Crows are settled in the 8, then they might be ripe for the picking, it'll depend on which team needs the win more at the time.
Hawks (MCG) Lose - No chance
Freo (MCG) Win - They'll be happy with pick 3 in the draft, Pavlich, Sandliands and Palmer will all be out having clean ups at the surgeons.
Dees (MCG) Win - The Dees will be happy with pick 2.

 

[RemoteTiger]

We have not beaten a team above us on the ladder - on that form we are no chance against the Lions, Cats, Crows and Hawks.

Of the remainder
West Coast in Perth - leave me alone - we will have trouble getting over them there
Bombers are on the rise - we are on the decline - line ball
Freo at the G - we would have to be a chance
Dees are getting better with each game and we are not - line ball

If we win both the line ball games that is 3 out of 4 which would give us 8 and 1/2 wins

9 and 1/2 if we cause one surprise

Forget about finals at this stage and take the season one at a time - we have a large number of young players. Young players tend to tapper off as the season gets longer - do not be surprised if we lose to teams we beat earlier in the year - as the last match against Carlton showed we are sore and tired and it is only going to get harder from here. In a nutshell our kids are not ready for a full long hard AFL 22 round season.

Finals not a chance IMO........RT

 

[clown]

We have made the finals twice in 26 years, on that record we have a slim chance of making finals in the next 10 years.

 

[mb64]

We have made the finals twice in 26 years, on that record we have a slim chance of making finals in the next 10 years.

We should next year

 

[RemoteTiger]

We should next year

Yeah and the Pigs are fed and ready to fly...........

 

[AstuteTiger]

We won't win all of those games.

like i said time will tell, it was a prediction i didnt say it was set in stone...But i am some what confident in most of the games i said we would win...