The Stats For Rnd 1 Floggings

[rexy]

Looking at the last six years of Rnd 1 floggings (55 points +);

4/11 losers made the Top8. Two of those four who made the Top8 got eliminated. So based on these stats we are a 36% chance of making the Top8, an 18% (2/11) chance of qualifying for the semis and a 1% chance of making Top4 (only the Cats did in 04). No Flag chance.
Of the seven Rnd 1 floggees who didn't make the Top8, one got a spoon, one got 9th (guess who) and the rest were 12th & under. Last night made it three Rnd 1 floggings in the last 5 years for us. The next closest is one.

Alternatively of the winning clubs dishing out the Rnd 1 spankings, 73% (8/11) made the Top8 including three flags (all three flag winners had been in previous finals campaigns). All of these eight at least made the semi.'s. The three that didn't make the eight finished 10th, 10th, 12th.

Sydney & Geelong are the only two clubs who have administered two Rnd 1 floggings in that period.

The only team that finished higher than their floggers was Kangaroos last year. Geelong equalled Saints in 04 by making the prelim.

We're 11th favorite ($2.20) to make the eight with SportsBet. Not sure what we were yesterday but we should have been in the top eight.


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2003
Sydney (prel) 146 Carlton (15th) 72
Adelaide (semi) 145 Fremantle (qual) 89

2004
Kangaroos (10th) 149 Adelaide (12th) 74
St Kilda (prel) 122 Geelong (prel) 61
Power (flag) 158 Essendon (semi) 62

2005
Sydney (flag) 118 Hawthorn (14th) 55
Geelong (semi) 160 Richmond (12th) 98

2006
Geelong (10th) 115 Brisbane (13th) 38
Bulldogs (semi) 167 Richmond (9th) 52

2007
No Rnd 1 floggings

2008
Hawthorn (flag) 154 Melbourne (spoon) 50
Essendon (12th) 122 Kangaroos (qual) 67

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We're breaking the wrong sort of records. Too scared to look at the flogging stats from other rounds :nailbiting

But hey it's only stats....

 

[ronnit]

love ya hard work rosie but stats mean jack *smile* ( when it suits )

 

[rexy]

rosie?, finally that big promotion I've been waiting for :clap

 

[Rosy]

love ya hard work rosie but stats mean jack sh!t ( when it suits )

:headscratch

 

[geoffryprettyboy]

4/11 losers made the Top8. Two of those four who made the Top8 got eliminated. So based on these stats we are a 36% chance of making the Top8, an 18% (2/11) chance of qualifying for the semis and a 1% chance of making Top4 (only the Cats did in 04). No Flag chance.

Like one of my professors once said, stats never lie. Although in this equation it gives us diehard supporters hope, do we know how many of those teams had practically a non- existant ruck division?

 

[Skills]

Like one of my professors once said, stats never lie. Although in this equation it gives us diehard supporters hope, do we know how many of those teams had practically a non- existant ruck division?

No need to practice forensic science here, the scoreboard told the complete story with the examples provided.
But if you get enough time in front of the PC all day gpb, I'm sure the right side of your brain could initiate other angles which resutled the above outcomes.

 

[ronnit]

oopsy...sorry...i must be tired after the late night travelling home from the game last night...followed by a sleepless night because of major disappointment.....

nice work REXY

 

[rexy]

love ya hard work rosie but stats mean jack sh!t ( when it suits )

I know, I just started out testing a theory that round 1 floggings don't mean alot and was hoping to find a couple of finalists amongst them. I suppose 4/11 with one semi & one prelim. is some hope.

But those clubs that bounced back weren't dysfunctional. So yes, probably a waste of time anyway.

 

[rexy]

oopsy...sorry...i must be tired after the late night travelling home from the game last night...followed by a sleepless night because of major disappointment.....

nice work REXY

easily done. I'm sure the chemists around Richmond have been doing a roaring trade today :hihi