Thoroughbred racing

[kb7882]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Cox Plate final field and barriers:

Number Horse Barrier
1 GREYS INN 2
2 LAD OF THE MANOR 7
3 SUPER KID 5
4 CONFECTIONER 12
5 DESERT WAR 1
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH 10
7 TOSEN DANDY 9
8 XCELLENT 13
9 OUTBACK PRINCE 6
10 MAKYBE DIVA 4
11 SKY CUDDLE 3
12 LOTTERIA 8
13 GOD'S OWN 14
14 HOTEL GRAND 11


All aboard the Diva train ! Toot Toot

 

[Blood_17]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

I'm a bit puzzled because this morning on radio it seems they regard Hotel Grand as a better colt than God's Own. They've both drawn wide in the Cox Plate, so I guess luck may play a part in deciding it. My fingers will be crossed that nothing goes wrong with Makybe Diva and she adds this to her trophy tally.

 

[Tiger44]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Surprisingly big field for Cox Plate may make it a bit more difficult for those that drop out e.g. Makybe Diva and Xcellent to go around the field. I give Lad of the Manor a big chance, loves the Valley, will race just off the pace just a query with the last 100 metres, with the great mare chasing him down. Can't wait!

 

[frahlee]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Fully agree Blood 17. Our boys grow up on these tracks and probably know them better than their own backyards. IMO, when in Rome etc. etc. A single stroll around a track race day or just prior is surely not enough to guage real bias, and with the rails getting shunted in and out willy nilly, it does become difficult even for the locals. Very brave effort by the Japanese horse, average ride - but in his defence, sitting 400 wide does keep you out of trouble - just ask the cowboy, Shane Dye. He is the crucifixion king and he's a local (well, not anymore).

 

[Blood_17]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Eye Popper reminds me a lot of that gallant British stayer Persian Punch. Big, tough as nails, stays forever. Given a good ride, he could win any marathon I think.

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Howdy, I was after some thoughts from the experts, here are my amatuer thoughts:

Makebe Diva, undisputed super-champ, one of the best ever, but isn't the Cox Plate a bit short and fast-paced for her? I know she doesn't have a lot weight but still. If the race was 2 and a half miles I'd pencil her in.

Confectioner, I do not understand the hype surrounding this horse, I only really get into racing at this time of year so I've probably missed something. I'm never betting on this horse ever again.

Gods Own, this is my pick, limited exposure but has the makings of a super horse thats hard to upset in the rough stuff, which counts for a lot at the Valley, and fast finisher.

Also having a saver on Desert War, cos he's done alright by me so far. And I have a bit of a hunch he'll do alright.

Thoughts?

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Howdy, I was after some thoughts from the experts, here are my amatuer thoughts:

Makebe Diva, undisputed super-champ, one of the best ever, but isn't the Cox Plate a bit short and fast-paced for her?  I know she doesn't have a lot weight but still.  If the race was 2 and a half miles I'd pencil her in.

Confectioner, I do not understand the hype surrounding this horse, I only really get into racing at this time of year so I've probably missed something.  I'm never betting on this horse ever again.

Gods Own, this is my pick, limited exposure but has the makings of a super horse thats hard to upset in the rough stuff, which counts for a lot at the Valley, and fast finisher.

Also having a saver on Desert War, cos he's done alright by me so far.  And I have a bit of a hunch he'll do alright.

Thoughts?

Cox Plates are very rarely won by horses from behind. It's a leaders' course because of the pace, usually they get a breather in front on a track with a 170m straight.

Lad of the Manor beat MD at a mile. You CAN finish at a mile. Stayers are suited to the mile. Her recent win over 2000m was the Australian Cup where they went berserk in front at spacious Flemington. (The blistering pace suits her. It's a SLOW pace that doesn't.) MD is most unlikely to get a pace like in this Cox Plate and the odds are very much stacked against her.

Both 3yos are chances IMO. I have my doubts about God's Own in a slow race.

I can see why you might like Desert War but Gai doesn't produce many in this town. She may be about to find form again. Good luck with it, ts. Might be the one.

Confectioner has handy form. Ho hum.

I'll be happy if MD kicks their heads in. With the exception of the 3yos (unknown) they are all mongrels and have it coming. But she is most unsuited at the course and is massive unders.

 

[Blood_17]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Apparently jockey Paul Harvey's wife has stated Plastered wasn't fully fit for the Caulfield Cup and is a bit doubtful for the Melbourne Cup now. Plastered pulled up with a slight heart irregulatity after the Caulfield race. That doesn't sound like a Melbourne Cup chance to me.

 

[kb7882]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Confectioner = sacked.
Tosen Dandy = What the ?
Outback Prince, Sky Cuddle, Desert War = not good enough.
God's Own, Hotel Grand = horrendous barriers. Can't go back and beat MD from behind, can't race forward, can't slot in behind the pace unless they sit wide. No.
Xcellent will have to drop right out, and can't give MD a start and beat her.

That leaves Lad of the Manor, FOO, and Lotteria on pace. Super Kid midfield in front of MD. Greys Inn the wildcard at this stage.

If it's a muddling sit/sprint, MD will have to go from a long way out. Can she outsprint FOO, LOM, Super Kid, or Lotteria ?

Where does Greys Inn fit in ? Need your help here, Dyer'ere (or anyone else).

 

[Blood_17]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

My great friend in Hong Kong, a leading racing journalist, tells me Super Kid and Greys Inn may find the Cox Plate just too hard. I agree with your summing up, just about 100%. The ones I think are the only chances are:

Makybe Diva
Lad Of The Manor
Xcellent
Fields Of Omagh
God's Own
Hotel Grand

That's it. I hope Makybe Diva can add it to her tally.

 

[kb7882]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

My great friend in Hong Kong, a leading racing journalist, tells me Super Kid and Greys Inn may find the Cox Plate just too hard. I agree with your summing up, just about 100%. The ones I think are the only chances are:

Makybe Diva
Lad Of The Manor
Xcellent
Fields Of Omagh
God's Own
Hotel Grand

That's it. I hope Makybe Diva can add it to her tally.

Excellent ! (pun intended ;D)

I already have MD and FOO loaded-up in Cox -> Cup/Derby doubles, so by a process of elimination I have a saver on the 'Lad'.
And an easy trifecta.

Thanks, mainlandy.

PS. Any idea where Greys Inn will settle in the run ??

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Confectioner = sacked.
Tosen Dandy = What the ?
Outback Prince, Sky Cuddle, Desert War = not good enough.
God's Own, Hotel Grand = horrendous barriers. Can't go back and beat MD from behind, can't race forward, can't slot in behind the pace unless they sit wide. No.
Xcellent will have to drop right out, and can't give MD a start and beat her.

That leaves Lad of the Manor, FOO, and Lotteria on pace. Super Kid midfield in front of MD. Greys Inn the wildcard at this stage.

If it's a muddling sit/sprint, MD will have to go from a long way out. Can she outsprint FOO, LOM, Super Kid, or Lotteria ?

Where does Greys Inn fit in ? Need your help here, Dyer'ere (or anyone else).

I hear ya HB, but a lot of people who know a lot more than me told me in past years Fileds of Omagh and Dane Ripper had no hope, backed DR on a hunch at 40-1, only time I've ever backed a CP winner.  Fluke I Know, but you get the point.  I still reckon MD is not a Cox plate horse, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if she wins being who she is. She's brilliant.

If its a muddling sprint HB, as it often is, Gods Own for me.  He gets knocked down, and he gets up again and wins a G1, enough evidence for me.

Also Dyer'ere I agree re Gai, but this year Sydney form is paramount so far, as Cogs said.  I notice 2 out of 3 tipsters in the SMH picked Railings last week, while nobody even had him for a place in the Age.

 

[kb7882]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Go for it, snakey. Good odds available after the draw. Just reckon he's not gonna get the cushy run that Savacat got last year. Mind you, he may be a good deal better than Savacat.

Good luck

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Howdy lads, been away from a pc for a few days,

went OK on saturday, unloaded on Activation, for $2.70 on betfair absolutley free money.....

unfortunately also had a whack as plastered, geez the jury's out on him at the mo.

also went pretty hard on my ol fav Johans toy in belle of turf at gosford on sunday.
I have never in my life seen a horse as unlucky as this one..........anyone else that saw the race will back me up................O'Hara should be sacked immediately, when your on clearly the best horse in the race from barrier 2 on a tight track, & your only possible danger is a natural leader.....& you then jump well from the stalls...........YOU DO NOT pull your mount up to settle midfield....YOU sit behind your danger then beat them in the run home.

After she yanked the reins to settle, poor little Johans reefed & pulled the whole race & still had the audacity to fly for seond.

Thats my rant over guys.....................but one day.....one day I swear I'm gunna clean up on this horse..... ;D
Hopefully Walter will still bring her to Cup carnival for the group 1 mares race.............& hopefully emply a senior rider.

On the Cox,        by geez I reckon & hope you've just about got it dead right Balmey.

I'm going to put some cox/cup doubles on this week with Lad of Manor, FOO & Greys Inn or super Kid (depending on track conditions) into a few melb cup chances.

Have been a Lad of manor fan all spring but starting to really think Fields of Omagh is way overs as well.
they're both genuine, tough horses that will race on pace & love the track, like HB i just have question marks over a lot of the other horses

obviously you cant leave the great mare out & leysy has made some good $$ out of her this campaign but she's no value on a track that she's gunna need a bit of luck in.

by the way guys we are forecast rain a fair bit over the next 3 days so the rail could be off by the time the cox is on.

dont worry about the distance for Makybe TS, she will run her last 600 in 33 seconds flat which no other horse in the race can do, she is not the one paced stayer she used to be either.

As i said the distance is not gunna be a problem for the great mare.............
but the track just might

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Thanks for the tip on the MD sectional, I think you're right, she's not the grinder she used to be, I still reckon Gods Own will fly home though. Track is the big factor yes.

Anyone whose interested, Dads horse Elenula will probably get a run at Colac Sunday. Find out Thurs. If she does, the connections are extremely confident, and for what its worth, they usually aren't. Ran well last start at Werribee, good natural speed but got caught wide.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Thanks for the field, HB. It's started the central spring debate (which is rhynming slang for the Cox Plate ;D)

There's no doubt in my mind that at least one of the 3yo's will go forward. 75% likely that both will. With the light weight the 3yos show early speed. And plenty of it at a low cost.

As has been documented, you can't win the race on a normal pace from further back than third in the run. MD is good enough to rewrite history. But let's not lose sight of just HOW good she'll need to be and how ill suited to 2000m she's been in the past.

It's not just the last 600m sectional that's critical in ALL 2000m races. It's that each sectional from the 1000 (depending) increases or holds. Perfect leader's tempo.

That's why stayers usually struggle at 2000m and do well at a mile. Totally different pattern.

Makybe Diva can run her last 600m in 33. No doubt. The trouble is that in the usual pattern they've dropped her at the 800 and she's too far off them. They will run that last 1000m in under 59. Maybe under 58. If the latter MD's in a lot of trouble.

The 3yo's hold the key. They MUST go forward. And they must ease for a soft tempo 2nd and 3rd behind Lotteria (or maybe a surprise leader)... They then have to build the clip from the 1000m mark.

The barrier is simply a non-issue for the 3yo's IMO. Anyone inside them will be terrified of their lightweight speed and all the front runners have an interest in the usual tempo. If anything the 3yo's are more vulnerable from inside draws. They can get cut for the early lead or squeezed up. Drawn wide is a plus.

The jockeys are far more important. What's Ms K.O'Hara riding? :shoot

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 GREYS INN (USA) Mike De Kock W Marwing 2 58 (117)
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 7 58 (114)
3 SUPER KID (NZ) John Moore N Rawiller 5 58 (115)
4 CONFECTIONER David Hayes C Williams 12 58 (110)
5 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 1 58 (112)
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH David Hayes Steven King 10 58 (116)
7 TOSEN DANDY (JPN) Hideyuki Mori M Yoshida 9 58 (105)
8 XCELLENT (NZ) Michael Moroney M T Coleman 13 56.5 (114)
9 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings D Beadman 6 56.5 (104)
10 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 4 55.5 (121)
11 SKY CUDDLE Peter G Moody G Childs 3 55.5 (107)
12 LOTTERIA Gai Waterhouse C Munce 8 54 (110)
13 GOD'S OWN Bart Cummings S Baster 14 48.5 (107)
14 HOTEL GRAND Anthony Cummings J Ford 11 48.5 (104)

http://www.ozracing.net.au/cgi-bin/rsb/public/al_format_wgt_rtg.cgi/2210M_V_.DFA?State=V

Anthony Cummings has two runners. Gee, just as well there's a rule against team riding. ;D

 

[Rosy]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

God's Own has the best colours.

 

[crackertiger]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Any tips for Geelong Cup day?

I will be enjoying a nice day at the Geelong races tomorrow and would like some help with the form guide.

Thanks!

 

[Coughlan24]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Any tips for Geelong Cup day?

I will be enjoying a nice day at the Geelong races tomorrow and would like some help with the form guide.

Thanks!

In the Cup, R8 No.3 Swift Tango it was dead last time when it went out $2.20 somehow no one thought the price was good enough. In the Geelong Classic which is R7 No.4 Shotgun Saxon is a real up & comer and maybe a chance in the Derby.

In the Cox Plate the speed will come from Tosen Dandy, Lotteria and Hotel Grand, for Hotel Grand to be in it he has to slot across from gate 11. Look for Grey's Inn, Super Kid and Fields of Omagh to be parked just off them. Fields of Omagh will look the winner at one point. I fancy Confectioner myself just something about him makes me think he will click and apart from Makybe this isn't a great WFA field. Mark my word God's Own CANNOT win, his last start was what he was set for and he busted a gut in winning it.