Top 50 Draft prospects 2018

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Almost ready to go here, I have some profiles lined up and will post them soon, up to pick 9 for the moment. The rest will go after Wednesday once the final medicals & athletic testing has been conducted. I look forward to some excellent discussion but If I could just ask one favour for now, and that is to keep this thread free of comments until all 50 profiles are posted. After that it's open for anyone to join the discussions.

Cheers BH

 

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1. Jack Lukosius

Woodville-West Torens/South Australia
Key Forward
Height: 195 cm Weight: 85 kg

Player Projection: Nick Riewoldt

If it’s difficult to split two highly skilled players then I always find it’s better to opt the player type that’s in short supply, in other words if in doubt always go tall. There’s been plenty of busts at the top end recently – Boyd, Schache, Patton & McCartin to name a few, but ultimately you have to roll the dice eventually otherwise you start getting desperate as we’ve seen with Freo & the Bulldogs. The thing that puts me at ease with this selection is Lukosious has performed at senior level, including finals, something which is generally an excellent barometer. The bar is set mighty high in this particular case but Jack is a hard worker & provided he lands at a professional club (eventually), rewards should come. As a worst case scenario I think you could bank on a Jack Gunston type contribution which is a reasonable floor when dealing with such a blue ribbon selection.

 

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2. Izak Rankine
West Adelaide/South Australia
Small Forward/Outside Midfielder
Height: 180 cm Weight: 76 kg

Player Projection: Robbie Gray

Rankine bleeds class, you could even make a case for him to go at pick 1, but pick 2 is still a fair acknowledgement of the skill he brings to the table. The fact that Champion Data have him perched at the top of draft the class speaks volumes and 120 points a game is a tidy return for a player who splits his time in the forward line. The risk with Rankine will be keeping the homesickness blues in check, I suspect all the clubs vying for his signature will be factoring this into their decision-making process . By my reckoning he will end up at Port, somehow, whether that be through trades or simply by scaring off the suitors. If that doesn’t come to fruition then it will be fascinating to see how this unfolds in two years. It could pave the way for a rock solid club culture or it could wind up as another kick to the nuts.

 

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3. Bailey Smith
Sandringham Dragons/Victoria Metro
Balanced Midfielder
Height: 183 cm Weight: 82 kg

Player Projection: Shaun Higgins

Now before people start darting for the Missy Higgins Greatest Hits collection hear me out, in my humble opinion Shaun Higgins has played some outstanding football the past two years & was rightly up there with the Brownlow favourites in 2018. That is essentially the level I think Bailey Smith can play at given he has exceptional kicking skills, can win his own ball & can also deploy his run and carry game to slice a game apart. In saying that I’d hope it lasts more than a season or two but for a benchmark I think the Higgins of late is a worthy tilt of the lid. The fact that Bailey has also taken professionalism to near obsessive proportions means you won’t be left wondering what’s left in the tank. His endurance is outstanding & he is a genuine threat from outside of the 50 metre arc. I realize it’s a big call to overlook Sam Walsh here but sometimes you just have to go with your instincts & plump for the guy who has a few more tricks up the sleeve.

 

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4. Sam Walsh
Geelong Falcons/Victoria Country
Balanced Midfielder
Height: 184 cm Weight: 74 kg

Player Projection: Bryce Gibbs

Walsh will be a gun, no doubts in mind, he will captain a team eventually and will consistently lead by example. I sort of see Walsh & Smith as a Hodge vs Judd type decision, the jury will be flip flopping on a weekly basis, that’s to be expected, and there may even be times where the leadership carries more weight than the on field exploits. It’s a bit like asking me whether I love Dusty more than Cotch, hard to say but I sure get a kick out of watching Dusty stiff arm his way to Brownlow glory. As for Walsh and his skill set, very Bryce Gibbs like, he won’t win as much contested ball as Smith & he won’t pull off too many sublime moments, but you’ll notice him at the end of the day when he knocks up 35 possessions. Bankable for sure, 200 games a near certainty.

 

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5. Nick Blakey
Sydney Swans Academy/Allies
Key Forward/Medium Forward
Height: 194 cm Weight: 77 kg

Player Projection: Jack Riewoldt

I have just committed the ultimate act of sacrilege & I will go to confession once the creeps clear out but I digress, Nick Blakey is the closest thing to Jack I’ve seen since Jack, and that’s to not say he will ever be Jack but he has enough tricks up the sleeve to at least learn from the master. It hasn’t quite been the full operatic masterpiece that we’ve become accustomed to but there’s been the occasional shimmy or kick over the shoulder that hints at something special. As to whether he has the complete Copperfield remains to be seen, but he will be a very handy player for a team needing a new Buddy system.

 

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6. Max King
Sandringham Dragons/Victoria Metro
Key Forward
Height: 202 cm Weight: 87 kg

Player Projection: Joe Daniher

Max is already a much better kick that Joe, he can have the yips but not so bad that you think your’re at an Auskick clinic for the blind. I think for aerial ability they share many similar qualities, so I suppose you could say Max projects as a better version of Daniher. Of course there is a downside here and it comes in the form of a dickie knee. Just how well King recovers from his ACL will determine his value & given he needs to hit the weight room there is always the chance of re-injury. Daniher took a good 3 years to fill out so I expect a similar time frame, patience the order of the day.

 

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7. Conner Rozee
North Adelaide/South Australia
Medium Utility
Height: 185 cm Weight: 71 kg

Player Projection: Elliott Yeo

Things weren’t always Rozee at pick 7, Tarryn Thomas has been tempting me like a double shot of Bailey’s but in the end I’ve plumped for the versatile guy over the tinsel wrapped midfielder. That’s not to say Rozee doesn’t have his own trick bag, he is capable of slicing through the field Elliot Yeo style and much like the premiership star he can play forward, back & in the engine room. Critical to this decision was also accounting for Rozee’s performances at SANFL level, he looked so at ease that I’ve already booked him in for round one, irrespective of where he lands on draft night.

 

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8. Tarryn Thomas
North Launceston/Tasmania
Balanced Midfielder
Height: 189 cm Weight: 76 kg

Player Projection: Daniel Wells

North clearly get at steal at pick 8, it shouldn’t be this easy to land such a classy onballer but they have managed to grab a player who I predict will be one of the finest midfielders that Tasmania has produced over the past 20 years. Whilst we haven’t seen a whole lot given Thomas comes from the Apple Isle, I can assure you he moves just like Wells, perhaps not with the same blistering pace but the cat like lateral movement is there, as is the desire to bounce his way downfield. At 189cm he also has the height to match it with the big boys so don’t be shocked if he starts clunking some eye catching pack parks. #LoLNorf gets one back here, doesn’t seem right but dems the breaks.

 

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9. Ben King
Sandringham Dragons/Victoria Metro
Key Forward/Key Defender
Height: 202 cm Weight: 83 kg

Player Projection: Jake Carlisle

Ben has had a bit of a steep learning curve this year due to his brother’s unlucky break after just one TAC match, whilst he hasn’t disgraced himself as a permanent forward he hasn’t quite set the world alight apart from a couple of 5 goal hauls against some mediocre opposition. In saying that, getting a taste of forward life can only help in the long run, there will be times when his team will need to bolster attack & much like Jake Carlisle he’ll need to be flexible. I think Ben’s true strength lies in his reading of the play & once he fills out he stands a good chance of becoming an A grade interceptor. As we’ve seen with Jacob Weitering nothing can be guaranteed but Ben strikes me as a fast learner.

 

[tigerdell]

deleted

 

[zippadeee]

Please, Rankine is more like Toompass and the king brothers more like Griffens & Elton

 

[zippadeee]

The only ones in that list that will become players are Smith, Blakey and Walsh

 

[BrisTiger24]

If I could just ask one favour for now, and that is to keep this thread free of comments until all 50 profiles are posted. After that it's open for anyone to join the discussions.

Guys - STFU, per Bully's request.

And, yes, I do acknowledge the irony of me commenting to tell you to STFU.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

The only ones in that list that will become players are Smith, Blakey and Walsh

Rankine will be a player and a very very special player

 

[Tigermad2005]

Can people delete their posts.

 

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10. Jye Caldwell
Bendigo Pioneers/Victoria Country
Balanced Midfielder
Height: 186 cm Weight: 82 kg

Player Projection: Dylan Shiel


On talent this is a fairly easy pick, Caldwell has the three key ingredients needed to cut it as an A-Grader, he has an excellent three step burst so can escape congestion, he works hard on the spread & he can drift forward and chime in with the occasional goal. 2018 has been fairly unkind but I think Caldwell has built up plenty of credits the past 3 years & was set to captain Vic Country before injury hit. The big risk of course is his dodgy hamstrings & I think it needs to be emphasized that both his legs are susceptible. Another Nathan Freeman perhaps? Having waited for the green light from the doctors at official testing I’m buying in, just hopefully not into another ‘revolutionary clinic’ run by Sigmund Fraud.

 

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11. Bailey Williams
Dandenong Stingrays/Victoria Country
Key Forward/Ruckman
Height: 198 cm Weight: 95 kg

Player Projection: Ben Brown

At pick 11 I’m investing in a bit of ginger power and plumping for the guy who nobody loves (and yes gingers do it better). Having followed Williams closely for 2 years I think the likes of Twomey are taking the proverbial by suggesting he’ll go at pick 53. The whispers concerning attitude have been completely overblown in my opinion and when it counted most Bailey stood up in the TAC Grand Final taking 4 crucial contested marks (and 38 for the season). Throughout the year he also averaged 4 shots on goal but due to some errant kicking his conversion dipped below 40%. That’s pretty much the knock & is the reason some recruiters have dealt him the hammer blow in final assessments. I’m a lot more bullish about his prospects because I don’t detect any technical issues with his ball drop & preparation, sometimes players just lose their mojo, much like a golfer who can’t sink a putt. When I think back to Buddy in his early days he was also a bit wayward, I think it took him 2 seasons to finally work out how to use his hook to maximum advantage.

Williams also has some tantalizing physical qualities, his running vertical leap is elite, that makes him a safe option as a back-up ruck option, and with the ruck rules changing his value can only go up. Then there’s the speed factor, Williams was the 6th fastest player at the combine, his 2.94sec/20m places him in rare company for a player his size. So all things considered I think he can make it, as a forward Ben Brown is the yardstick but he may also become more of a ruck depending on list requirements.

 

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12. Chayce Jones
Launceston/Tasmania
Balanced Midfielder
Height: 180 cm Weight: 74 kg

Player Projection: Callan Ward

It’s Mr Safe now at 12, thought about Jordan Clark, thought about Valente but ultimately it was Jones who appealed most because he doesn’t really present any significant downside. Not sure he will ever win a Brownlow but neither will Callan Ward who plays a very similar game to Jones, both players aren’t towering monoliths either. Jones is competent on both sides with his disposal generally being clean, sometimes he lacks that wow factor but I guess that’s why he isn’t a top 5 pick. As for his athleticism, everything checks out with endurance elite, leap elite, agility very good & pace above average. Leadership also a tick. If people are wondering how I split Valente & Jones it basically came down to perceived downside & choosing the player I felt could contribute best in other positions on the ground. With Jones being the more athletic of the two the decision wasn’t overly torturous.

 

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13. Jordan Clark
Claremont/Western Australia
Defender
Height: 182cm Weight: 78kg

Player Projection: Kade Simpson

Pick 13 is the right time to start picking off the elite rebounders, especially given there’s some question marks arising with the remaining players left on the board. For my money Clark is the clear standout for this role & whilst he doesn’t have elite pace, his kicking more than makes up for the lack of zip. In a race between a Jordan Clark punt & Usain Bolt there can only ever be one winner, that’s the argument in a nutshell & when I look at the competition’s elite such as Kade Simpson, Rory Laird & Jake Lloyd, Clark falls safely into the green zone. Endurance nothing to worry about & on that count improvement could even be expected given he hasn’t had a full preseason.

*In light of the recent news regarding glandular fever I reserve the right to downgrade this selection if the prognosis is particularly dire.