Uneven draw

[lamb22]

I think most punters feel we ended up in about our rightful spot. We had the measure of the bottom 8 clubs (nine wins out of 10) and off the pace with the big boys ( 2 wins from 12).

I also have no problem with seven of the clubs finishing above us. I do have a significant problem however with Collingwood eventually finishing fifth on the back of a loaded draw. For the record Collinwood finished with an 11 out of 13 record against bottom 8 sides and 3 out of 9 against top 8 sides and two of those wins were against Doggies and Coasters when in a bit of a form slump and injury hit. Collingwood travelled only 4 times and only once to WA.

Reminiscent of 2002 when they snatched 4th on the back of an even easier draw with only 3 interstate games. Fremantle finished one game behind having lost their only encounter against the maggies in Melbourne. I think that year Freo were unbeaten in WA and if that match would have been played in WA freo most likely would have finished top 4.

Its just not good enough for finishing positions to be determined by the vagaries of the draw and it is unbelievable that some clubs should get a leg up for commercial or other reasons.

Collingwood is a fringe top 8 side if that, similar to the tiges. In finals however it is all basically about momentum and a fair splash of luck. So even a fringe side can achieve some success like Maggies in 2002 and Crows in 98 and Carlton in 99 (luckily that old final 8 system was ditched).

Had tiges being given 3 more games against bottom 8 sides such as North, Port at the G and Maggies again in lieu of our 100 pointers against Sydney, Doggies and Saints fans might have a different view (probably wong view) of Richmond's standing. With a Collingwood type draw then we would have won 13 or 14 games and ended up with a % above 100.

Time to scrap the NAB cup and play 30 rounds (and maybe change the finals to final 4) so that the best teams actually play in finals and hopefully the best becomes premier. I would also place greater significance on the minor premiership as the team who finishes top at the end of a fair home and away series is the best team for mine

 

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

The problem with a 30-round draw is that the season is already over for some clubs by round 15. Many players are also spent by that time, so you'd need to increase lists (although crowd and TV revenue could increase in proportion with the number of games to cover this).

We'll be stuck with an uneven draw until two clubs fold or merge, leaving 14 teams, 26 rounds and no pre-season.

 

[Liverpool]

The problem with a 30-round draw is that the season is already over for some clubs by round 15. Many players are also spent by that time, so you'd need to increase lists (although crowd and TV revenue could increase in proportion with the number of games to cover this).

We'll be stuck with an uneven draw until two clubs fold or merge, leaving 14 teams, 26 rounds and no pre-season.

It happens in every soccer league around the world....."home and away" means exactly that....you play a team at home, and then later in the season, you play them away.
Its the only way you'll get a fair draw.

The only other way you could get around it, is like in American sports, where you split it into conferences.

 

[meltiger]

(and maybe change the finals to final 4)

Agree with most of your post mate except this.

Tried to logon to ticketmaster this morning and the site was jammed ... 5th V 8th is going to have a crowd of 80k plus.


There is no way the AFL will be giving up that revenue stream.

 

[Richmond United]

Agree Lamby......biggest inequity in the game is the draw.

Some interesting discussion on this topic in the thread below......for those interested.

http://www.puntroadend.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=11754.0

 

[shawry]

Even home games arent at home though, Telstra Dome against Saints for example which is their home ground. I guess later in the year it wwas at the G for a saints home game but how does all that work,. Sitll wouldnt be totally even then, but would make it fairer re palying against interstate clubs.

 

[Darren]

The problem with a 30-round draw is that the season is already over for some clubs by round 15. Many players are also spent by that time, so you'd need to increase lists (although crowd and TV revenue could increase in proportion with the number of games to cover this).

We'll be stuck with an uneven draw until two clubs fold or merge, leaving 14 teams, 26 rounds and no pre-season.

of course, two teams merging would mean 15 clubs competing. maybe 4 clubs merge? can't see that happening for a while.
definitely get rid of the pre season cup and play a 30 round season. So what if your season is shot by round 15. the players will still be playing for their careers and will have to bust their guts till the end.
As a second choice, I don't mind the conference idea either. You could have West conference (most western teams in Australia) with West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port, Geelong, Bulldogs, Essendon and Roos. The East conference would be Tiges, Pies, Blues, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. I believe previous models bandied about would have you playing each conference team twice and the other conference teams once for a 24 game season. Top 4 teams from each conference to play off in the finals.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

The problem with a 30-round draw is that the season is already over for some clubs by round 15. Many players are also spent by that time, so you'd need to increase lists (although crowd and TV revenue could increase in proportion with the number of games to cover this).

We'll be stuck with an uneven draw until two clubs fold or merge, leaving 14 teams, 26 rounds and no pre-season.

of course, two teams merging would mean 15 clubs competing. maybe 4 clubs merge? can't see that happening for a while.
definitely get rid of the pre season cup and play a 30 round season. So what if your season is shot by round 15. the players will still be playing for their careers and will have to bust their guts till the end.
As a second choice, I don't mind the conference idea either. You could have West conference (most western teams in Australia) with West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port, Geelong, Bulldogs, Essendon and Roos. The East conference would be Tiges, Pies, Blues, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. I believe previous models bandied about would have you playing each conference team twice and the other conference teams once for a 24 game season. Top 4 teams from each conference to play off in the finals.

Bombers might have some issues with reduced crowds in their division. ;D

 

[Ian4]

lamb22, i emailed the SEN soapbox and WLF with this same issue about 3 weeks ago

 

[Scoop]

Have a look at the Swans draw this year and compare it past premiers.

Just staggering when you look closely.

There was no way there was going to be a premiership hangover in Sydney this year.

Andy D was not going to let that happen in this biggest untapped domestic market.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Have a look at the Swans draw this year and compare it past premiers.

Just staggering when you look closely.   

There was no way there was going to be a premiership hangover in Sydney this year.

Andy D was not going to let that happen in this biggest untapped domestic market.

They used new sports software from the US to configure this year's fixture. They can set all sorts of constraints regarding venues, days between matches, club requests etc and the software spits out the draw. Wouldn't surprise if they put some pro-Swans criteria into the system.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Rough measure of draw difficulty since 1998:

Club Raw HvH HvI IS N Diff
Ri 1737 1020 123 315 35 384 38 18 2 1802
WB 1690 942 119 254 28 454 46 40 5 1778
Co 1720 1007 124 346 38 354 35 13 1 1774
St 1700 900 115 325 34 358 39 117 10 1757
Me 1672 910 116 298 34 441 46 23 2 1752
Ge 1694 932 118 357 37 367 40 38 3 1750
Ha 1677 920 118 266 27 396 41 95 12 1749
Ca 1679 990 126 335 34 351 37 3 1 1733
Ka 1652 790 107 254 26 420 41 188 24 1732
Es 1651 952 124 350 37 349 37 0 0 1703
Ad 1721 198 18 719 90 773 85 31 5 1655
Fr 1712 170 18 767 90 715 83 60 7 1630
Br 1690 0 0 895 106 781 91 14 1 1589
PA 1659 180 18 718 90 661 79 100 11 1582
WC 1642 92 18 783 90 711 83 56 7 1557
Sy 1654 0 0 946 109 666 84 42 5 1531

Figures are based on rank of opponents at R22 of the previous season, e.g. Adelaide 1st in 2005, so in 2006 playing Adelaide is worth 16 points; Carlton 16th so playing Carlton in 2006 is worth 1 point etc.

Raw - total rank of opponents
HvH - playing in home state against another club from that state
HvI - playing in home state against a club from another state
IS - interstate games in the opponent's home state
N - neutral; interstate games not in the opponent's home state
Diff - difficulty based on the following:
- HvH, no adjustment
- HvI, Vic clubs multiplied by 0.9, interstate clubs multiplied by 0.8
- IS, Vic clubs multiplied by 1.25, interstate clubs multiplied by 1.1
- N, no adjustment

Columns with no headings are the total matched played in each category.

Modifiers are based on the records of the six interstate clubs playing in other states - they all rank above the 10 Victorian clubs. Stats are from 1998 because 1997 was the first year that the current 16 clubs operated and therefore the first year that ladder positions could be used to rate the following year's draw.

The Difficulty figure is subjective and there are quite a few outside factors that influence the fixture but there's no doubt based on the Raw column that Richmond has been drawn to play better-performed opponents than other clubs over the last 9 years.

 

[poppa x]

But we've been cr*p for most of the past 9 years - so most opponents are going to be better than us.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

But we've been cr*p for most of the past 9 years - so most opponents are going to be better than us.

Good point, top teams don't play themselves and vice versa for bottom teams. Revised figures, with one ranking point deducted for opponents placed higher the previous year, giving all opponents a rank from 1-15:

Cb Raw HvH # HvI # IS # N # Diff
Ca 1554 914 126 312 34 325 37 3 1 1752
Co 1589 932 124 319 38 326 35 12 1 1726
St 1593 847 115 303 34 333 39 110 10 1679
Ha 1547 850 118 248 27 363 41 86 12 1659
Ka 1580 757 107 243 26 401 41 179 24 1649
WB 1589 884 119 241 28 428 46 36 5 1646
Ri 1598 938 123 289 35 354 38 17 2 1644
Ge 1596 878 118 337 37 346 40 35 3 1623
Me 1569 852 116 281 34 414 46 22 2 1613
Es 1574 916 124 329 37 329 35 0 0 1604
Ad 1637 188 18 684 90 735 85 30 5 1574
Br 1624 0 0 860 106 751 91 13 1 1527
PA 1590 170 18 691 90 633 79 96 11 1515
Fr 1566 156 18 702 90 653 83 55 7 1491
WC 1556 88 18 741 90 673 83 54 7 1475
Sy 1582 0 0 902 109 639 84 41 5 1466