What are the odds of Richmond Football Club playing in the 2008 Grand Final?

[Tigers of Old]

Send me the dollar now ToO

I think I'll wait until the end of the season before doing that.

A grand final appearance would be extremely unlikely but anything is possible.

No way I would have predicted a Port-Geelong Grannie at the beginning of last year or a Kangas top 4 finish.

Hope that you are good for the 100k. ;D

 

[TigerForce]

Can we recycle this thread?

 

[the claw]

OK Claw. I'll do you a good deal...even money. How much do you want? $100?

I reckon this board would light up if you were prepared to take an even money bet on this.

done the winnings go to this site ie running costs player sponsorship..rosmerta is not happy with me atm a bit of bribery may go a long way. :hihi do you agree.

 

[Willo]

well if you are that well connected can you make Carlton an offer they can't refuse to pass on Kreuzer?

You're up late Col, any reply from Skunky on your question

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I get an average return of $432.67 for $15 which is still pretty tight. 27.8 / 1.

Not the correct way to calculate odds, as not all combinations have an equal probablility of occurring. Calculating an average return is misleading, e.g.

4 horse field with runners priced at $2, $2, $34, $34
'average return' is $18, but you are not likely to get that return on average. One of the even money chances is almost certain to win.

To calculate the odds in this case it's
(1 / ((1/310) + (1/225) + ... + (1/740))) - 1
= 16.86 - 1
= 15.86/1

This method is correct, I have the losses to prove it.

 

[SkunkDen]

well if you are that well connected can you make Carlton an offer they can't refuse to pass on Kreuzer?

id prefer actually prefer to make WC release big cox to us with my connections, and jono brown from brisbane for that matter but if its kreuzer ya really want, i'll c what tony says

 

[Col.E.Kurtz]

You're up late Col, any reply from Skunky on your question

Where I live is 3 hours behind PRE time so not up quite so late

Skunk is probably out slingin' caine, or taking a chainsaw to some crazy Colombians

EDIT: or writing a reply right now

 

[chislop]

i might start a realistic thread up. what are the odds of the rfc winning the wooden spoon. odds on at this moment in time.

You could start up a petition on PRE Claw, demanding that the club finish bottom of the ladder. With the tanking supporters on the Tanking 2008 thread, you might get some signatures and lobby the club with some success. Greg Miller might help you, 'cause he'll be out of a job following your last petition. Then as the 2008 season finishes, you can again say, "...................duds...I told ya so."

So, get on yer bike and get on to that new petition.....

 

[SkunkDen]

Where I live is 3 hours behind PRE time so not up quite so late

Skunk is probably out slingin' caine, or taking a chainsaw to some crazy Colombians

EDIT: or writing a reply right now

thats an awesome reply, LMAO at that one :rofl

 

[TigerForce]

Not the correct way to calculate odds, as not all combinations have an equal probablility of occurring. Calculating an average return is misleading, e.g.

4 horse field with runners priced at $2, $2, $34, $34
'average return' is $18, but you are not likely to get that return on average. One of the even money chances is almost certain to win.

To calculate the odds in this case it's
(1 / ((1/310) + (1/225) + ... + (1/740))) - 1
= 16.86 - 1
= 15.86/1

This method is correct, I have the losses to prove it.

Where do you get the denominators from ?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Where do you get the denominators from ?

They're the odds posted by Sportsbet for Richmond & each other side to make the GF: (v Adelaide $310 Brisbane $440 Carlton $550 Collingwood $225 Essendon $740 Fremantle $205 Geelong $65 Hawthorn $230 Kangaroos $740 Melbourne $1300 Port $185 St.Kilda $250 Sydney $335 West Coast $175 Western Bulldogs $740). Edit: apologies, formula should have read (1/310 ) + (1/440) etc.

Of course if they put up $16.86 for Richmond to make the GF they wouldn't get many takers (though they would get some - witness the bets taken on the Brownlow late each season on players who haven't played a game all year!). By spreading the market 15 ways and posting odds that are seemingly huge, some of the combinations appear to be 'over the odds'. It's very difficult if not impossible for punters to distinguish between e.g. a 200/1 chance and a 300/1 chance in their heads.

 

[TigerForce]

Sorry I thought the denominators you typed were for that horse race example. ;D

 

[Willo]

Do people really think we're odd? I can only speak for myself, I am :hihi
10/1 no 14/1 maybe a bit higher ;D

 

[Mr Brightside]

Nothing to do with our chances but I think next year outside of the Cats there is no real strong team at this stage(things can Change) so the oppurtunity for any of the other 15 teams to make an impact

 

[boysfromtheG]

Nothing to do with our chances but I think next year outside of the Cats there is no real strong team at this stage(things can Change) so the oppurtunity for any of the other 15 teams to make an impact

Spot on, even the Cats are "cats".