What would you give for one more premiership in this era/dynasty? | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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What would you give for one more premiership in this era/dynasty?

deedee

Tiger Matchwinner
Sep 12, 2011
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I don't think Omeara or Mitchell gets us our next flag, so draft kids, save the coin for when someone is available that will make a real difference.
 
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23.21.159

A Tiger in Denmark
Aug 9, 2003
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Last day of trade period.
I have been following all the discussion and banter about JOM and TMitchell.

But seriously, What would you give for one more premiership in this era/dynasty?
Let me put it this way, how big of premiership draught are you prepared to sacrifice for another flag?
How much sacrifice for another 2 flags???

For me, a 42yo / 27 year member, who knows full well of the 37years, I would nearly risk it all going for another flag.
If someone could guarantee another back-to-back (22 & 23) and therefore 5 flags in 7 years, I would happily fall off the cliff chasing it.

However there are no guarantees, that’s why some posters always have an eye for the future. And I get that.

What would you give for one more premiership in this era/dynasty?
Back to back 2022-23? That would be five flags in seven years. Gluttony!
Even Hawthorn in the 80s didn't do that. The shortest span in which they won five flags was the nine years from 1983-1991 - and that was in 12/14 team competitions.
Melbourne 1955-1960 is the only time anyone has done anything like it.
Five flags in seven years in an 18-team competition would establish a legacy that would last generations.

All things being equal, in the current structure, you can expect a flag every 18 years. Five would be 90 years' worth of premierships.
Even including the 37-year drought that would take us up to 2070.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,391
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. Five would be 90 years' worth of premierships.

thanks 23.

this enables me to make a data-driven decision on what I'll give.

I'll take a 90 years drought if we can go back2back 22/23.

I'm sure the grandkids can find joy somewhere else
 
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The Big Richo

Moderator
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Aug 19, 2010
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The home of Dusty
What would you give for one more premiership in this era/dynasty?

It's a great post and really interesting topic MC.

I think you do whatever it takes to win them whenever you can and you should err on the side of going too hard to win a flag, no matter what the price.

People will say no we can rebuild quickly with the wise heads at the club but it isn't as simple as that. What do you think they would have said in 1980 if you told them it would be 37 years of mostly misery before we won another? No chance, we are much too good a club for that.

Never goes down well on here when I say it, but so much of success is down to luck that it is impossible to tell when it will come around again. There are so many factors that have to overcome so many obstacles to perfectly align that it is like winning tattslotto in many ways.

Draft picks are just names on paper until they aren't and by then it is too late to do anything with them anyway. No-one knows which players are going to be booms or busts until they expose themselves so the notion of building list to contend again is fraught with risk.

The sun doesn't shine on you very often in AFL footy, when it does you have to soak up every last ray.
 
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Dont Argue

Tiger Champion
Jun 26, 2018
2,767
4,206
Very interesting subject.
From a supporters point of view, you’d go the Premiership every time.
Because we’re not responsible for anything.
From the club administration point of view they may see it very differently.
They say they exist for us but they’re the caretakers of the club and can’t afford to see the club down at the bottom for long periods of time.
I think on most metrics, Geelong is the most successful club because they consistently compete over a long period of time which builds stability. Stability breeds membership content. And they may have pinched one or two if it wasn’t for a freak of nature.
Clubs want to avoid chicken shyte being dumped on their doorstep
 
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TOT70

I'm just a suburban boy
Jul 27, 2004
9,406
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Melbourne
The 2017 Premiership 22 featured the following top 20 picks: Vlastuin, Prestia, Dusty, Ellis, Grigg, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Rioli, Rance and Caddy. Then we added another in Lynch. Edwards and Bolton were picked before 30. Even McIntosh was a pick 31. Astbury was pick 35. We also had plenty of players taken with late and rookie picks but more than half of our Premiership players were taken in the range of the six picks we currently hold in this draft.

Melbourne‘s all-conquering team this year has a similar profile. Oliver, Petracca, Jackson, Bradshaw, Salem, Lever, just off the top of my head, we’re all top 10. I just think that Premiership teams need that sort of class and we are slowly losing it. In my opinion, talk of another flag is fanciful unless we can get the profile of the team back to that 2017 standard.

The best way to get another flag is to hit the pointy end of the draft over the next two years.
 
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Total Tiger

Tiger Champion
Apr 13, 2009
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It'd be nice to shut the Geelong supporters up but it's not worth investing so hard that we're a laughing stock for the subsequent 10 years like they have.
 

The_General

It's been a very hard working from home
Staff member
May 4, 2004
9,145
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What would I give?
My ex-partners body for medical research.
They can also arrange the transition from the living realm to the afterlife
 
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123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
2,535
2,355
While I am at it, I read something really interesting in the media this week about Melbourne’s recruiting strategy in the last few seasons. They have traded away their future first round pick for several seasons now and used it to boost their draft hand at the current draft. The first thing they do is trade back into the first round during the following trade week. It is the equivalent of going to the draft with resources borrowed from yourself in the future and borrowing again to replace them when the time comes. If they keep doing it forever, they will never repay it.

Now that is a smart strategy. I can’t remember where I read this but I am tipping it was not in the Herald Sun.

I think we’ve been equally smart from a more difficult position.

Melbourne and us have both been quick to implement future trading strategies compared to other clubs. But we’ve come from the top and they’ve come from the bottom.

My read of the situation is Melbourne won’t kick the can down the road forever because they’ll get less value on their way back down the ladder.

If a club is rising up the ladder, they’ll get added value by trading away future picks.

If a club is falling down the ladder, they’ll get added value by putting savings aside for later.

Future trading strategies need to be closely linked to expectations of future performance. Humans are bad at this. Melbourne‘s strategy was consistent with their change in ladder position (moving up). That’s the key. But our strategy was consistent with our ladder position change too. It’s easy to expect future performance to improve. It’s harder to be smart on the way down, as it goes against human nature.

Until we see Melbourne being smart in an unnatural position, I’ll expect us to silently end up the smarter of the two clubs in the long run.

As an interesting side note - our premiership in 2017 was won with a future 1st + 3rd round pick and salary cap space waiting in the bank, which put us at a disadvantage, contrasted to Melbourne’s advantage gained from the above strategy. This means we held 2 additional first round picks compared to Melbourne’s current position moving forward. Something to look at as they try to stay on top while in debt.

As for this year’s draft, if other clubs superficially follow Melbourne‘s strategy, it would cause a decrease in value of future picks. This would benefit our current approach to trade in future picks. This could help us with live trading in this year’s draft...
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,391
15,346
What would I give?
My ex-partners body for medical research.
They can also arrange the transition from the living realm to the afterlife

ok,

I'll throw in Gina Rhinehart dunked in molasses, rolled in desiccated coconut, and thrown into the boar pen
 
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The_General

It's been a very hard working from home
Staff member
May 4, 2004
9,145
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ok,

I'll throw in Gina Rhinehart dunked in molasses, rolled in desiccated coconut, and thrown into the boar pen
team america vomit GIF
 
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TOT70

I'm just a suburban boy
Jul 27, 2004
9,406
2,310
Melbourne
I think we’ve been equally smart from a more difficult position.

Melbourne and us have both been quick to implement future trading strategies compared to other clubs. But we’ve come from the top and they’ve come from the bottom.

My read of the situation is Melbourne won’t kick the can down the road forever because they’ll get less value on their way back down the ladder.

If a club is rising up the ladder, they’ll get added value by trading away future picks.

If a club is falling down the ladder, they’ll get added value by putting savings aside for later.

Future trading strategies need to be closely linked to expectations of future performance. Humans are bad at this. Melbourne‘s strategy was consistent with their change in ladder position (moving up). That’s the key. But our strategy was consistent with our ladder position change too. It’s easy to expect future performance to improve. It’s harder to be smart on the way down, as it goes against human nature.

Until we see Melbourne being smart in an unnatural position, I’ll expect us to silently end up the smarter of the two clubs in the long run.

As an interesting side note - our premiership in 2017 was won with a future 1st + 3rd round pick and salary cap space waiting in the bank, which put us at a disadvantage, contrasted to Melbourne’s advantage gained from the above strategy. This means we held 2 additional first round picks compared to Melbourne’s current position moving forward. Something to look at as they try to stay on top while in debt.

As for this year’s draft, if other clubs superficially follow Melbourne‘s strategy, it would cause a decrease in value of future picks. This would benefit our current approach to trade in future picks. This could help us with live trading in this year’s draft...
Agree. RFC are clearly following a strategy of pushing trades into the future. Any strategy is better than no strategy. But it makes sense anyway. We will need a major rebuild at some point. Extra picks will come in handy then, even if they are just used to move up the order to better picks. Because of future trading, a club can turbocharge a particular draft with a bit of clever forward planning.
 
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kiwitiger

Go the AllBlacks, the Storm , and the Tigers.
Jul 28, 2004
2,970
1,548
Difficult question ,

hypothetical ,

A short sharp rebuild where you can see the progress I could handle no probs

Not sure id ever want to see another long sustained period of misery like the 30 plus years before the dynasty , even for an extra premiership as a sweetner
 
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ceehook2

Tiger Rookie
Feb 11, 2021
190
249
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Defense - lose Astbury gain Tarrant , also find Dan Rioli & Stack can play down back ok - sorted

Ruck - Nank back ok - Soldo on the path to return , lost CCJ & Chol , coming thru are Sampson Ryan and Mate - we're ok

Mids - key here , we are hoping more offseason recovery time will assist Cotchin , Prestia , Dusty , Lambert & Edwards , pretty sure we had all 5 out for one of our early losses RCD , P Dow and Hugo are progressing , Ross is a worry , hopefully these last four names can provide more depth than 2021
the likes of JOM & Mitchell might have just been too expensive ... and someone like Dunstan from Saints not good enough

Forwards - Lynch was down , this could also be a function of mids being out of form , there's no reason why he cant bounce back , Jack , we can see the end coming but he is such a competitor I think he'll still give us value in '22 , the cupboard is bare for tall forwards - risk

our small forwards weren't looking good (Aarts & George) in the back half of the season but much of the side was stinking it up

we have MJR coming , Caddy getting a clean run at a season and a new assistant coach who is supposed to be good with attacking strategies , Teague

I think there is enough there to have a real crack at a flag

and in doing so we aren't in a Geelong like state , i see that as a super bonus
last year Geelong go we'll have Cameron and Smith and have probably bankrupted their future in doing so
we could have gone chips all in for Cera and one of Mitchell/JOM
I couldn't see that move guarenting a GF birth let alone a flag
but it would erode the club culture

if we can go top 4 in 22 and premiership in 23 , 4 flags , 2 prelims in 7 years - thats a dynasty
 

Hayfever

Tiger Champion
Apr 12, 2005
4,688
59
I still see our tall forward options as a definite worry. Especially after losing both CCJ and Chol.

CCJ potentially covered full-forward and ruck. The latter position less crucial if Soldo comes back better than ever. Anyway he’s gone and there’s little to be gained from a post-mortem as to why that happened.

Chol showed plenty of positive signs but I could never see him as either a key position player or ruckman. He had his chances though and may prove me wrong.

Which leads me to thinking a big gamble may well be worth taking..... and that is taking Mac Andrew with our first pick. Yes sure, I can hear the naysayers screaming NO.

Here’s my thinking:-
MA, based on footage and reports I’ve seen, is like a much more coordinated Chol at the same age, with a very impressive basic skill set. Physically needs to fill out and harden up more but that’s a given anyway. I believe he has the potential to become a key position player and share rucking duties around the ground.... if allowed to develop in the same way we tried with Chol. Except I believe he could advance much quicker than Chol was able to.

In the meantime we still have JR8, Tom L, Toby & big Ivan to help him develop his all-round skills set.