More wild/inane speculation on my behalf on the shape of our list in the middle future – this time 2008.
Let’s pretend for a minute that after this year’s draft we strike it lucky with our list and that the players we will have - plus a few extras - are good enough to hold their positions in the top 22 for the next 3 years. Even manage to crawl up the ladder in years 2006/07 – so that by the end of the year 2008 we will be in a good position to have a real dip in the finals.
So at the end of 2008 we could have a list that has played for 3 years together and really bonded – but will they be experienced enough (apart from good enough) to be a serious threat? Let’s have a look at the numbers.
The numbers after each player represent games played to the end of 2008 home-and-away season (but not the finals) – assuming an average of 18 games per year (a tad optimistic no doubt) and two finals games (06/07). The players chosen are those I think will go the distance from the current list plus those that I hope we will recruit this year. Those marked * are completely unknown players that will be picked up in subsequent years and are not part of the calculation – they could be youngsters or experienced players – but let’s assume overall that they conform statistically.
FB Hartigan 83 Thursfield 62 *
HB Jackson 72 Mills 56 Newman 132
C Tambling 68 Coughlan 127 Meyer 62
HF Brown 223 Schulz 81 *
FF Rodan 116 Dowler 56 Simmonds 182
R Pattison 58 Deledio 78 Tuck 81
Int Polo 56 Bowden 248 Foley 62 *
The average games played per player will be almost exactly 100. This figure, however, will be distorted somewhat by the presence of Brown and Bowden. Take the numbers out for these two players and the average drops back to 84. Perhaps a little too young overall to challenge for the flag – but 2009 should be interesting.
Let’s pretend for a minute that after this year’s draft we strike it lucky with our list and that the players we will have - plus a few extras - are good enough to hold their positions in the top 22 for the next 3 years. Even manage to crawl up the ladder in years 2006/07 – so that by the end of the year 2008 we will be in a good position to have a real dip in the finals.
So at the end of 2008 we could have a list that has played for 3 years together and really bonded – but will they be experienced enough (apart from good enough) to be a serious threat? Let’s have a look at the numbers.
The numbers after each player represent games played to the end of 2008 home-and-away season (but not the finals) – assuming an average of 18 games per year (a tad optimistic no doubt) and two finals games (06/07). The players chosen are those I think will go the distance from the current list plus those that I hope we will recruit this year. Those marked * are completely unknown players that will be picked up in subsequent years and are not part of the calculation – they could be youngsters or experienced players – but let’s assume overall that they conform statistically.
FB Hartigan 83 Thursfield 62 *
HB Jackson 72 Mills 56 Newman 132
C Tambling 68 Coughlan 127 Meyer 62
HF Brown 223 Schulz 81 *
FF Rodan 116 Dowler 56 Simmonds 182
R Pattison 58 Deledio 78 Tuck 81
Int Polo 56 Bowden 248 Foley 62 *
The average games played per player will be almost exactly 100. This figure, however, will be distorted somewhat by the presence of Brown and Bowden. Take the numbers out for these two players and the average drops back to 84. Perhaps a little too young overall to challenge for the flag – but 2009 should be interesting.
;D
