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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
Can’t remember the circumstances really. He definitely went home but I think he was out of contract anyway?
Of course he is back in Melbourne now at the demons
FWIW, I'm enjoying Carter's desire to stimulate discussion.
This sort of malarkey is the point of forums like this.
I think your point is rock solid. Wilson, Conca, Annear, I don't think we tried to move heaven and earth to keep them. Wilson and Pitura biggest Tiger fizzers?
So am I. He is a stubborn bastard!!
Good him for sticking to his guns.
Don’t agree with it but makes the forum much more interesting.
Agreed. I appreciate the big play idea of Carter, and he may be right, but he hasn't convinced me. But absolutely, have an opinion and argue your case, thats the point.
OK. I think I need a cleaner source of crack. Having just read the previous posts of Jack and Carts I feel that there is too much bleach being poured into the mixing saucepan. 'Cos I must be on a different planet.
You guys and your posts make no sense at all.
You guys and your posts make no sense at all.
Ok had half an hour free so had a look at whats possible with some of the things we know and might suspect could happen in the trade / draft period.
So this assumes finishing positions that I worked out based upon a ladder predictor I did but with the aim to show that we don't need to trade someone like Bolton to regenerate quickly. I've tried to be fair with trading.
Assumptions we finish 16th. With the other assumptions with finishing positions we'd start with Picks 3, 23, 33, 40 ,41, 51, 59, 68, 70
Trades I've assumed
Trade 1 - Graham leaves to go to Adelaide as a FA, Adelaide pay him enough for Band 3 compo, 2nd round pick so we get Pick 24 too
All other trades use original pick numbers to keep it easy to read
Trade 2 - Gold Coast, We receive Pick 9, they receive our future 2nd, 40, 41, 59 and 70
Trade 3 - Brisbane, We receive Pick 11 and their future 2nd, they receive Short, 23, 51 and 68
Trade 4 - West Coast, We receive Pick 1 and 21, they receive Baker and Pick 9 (what we got from Gold Coast)
Trade 5 - North, We receive Philips, they receive Pick 33
So this would leave us taking Picks 1, 3, 11, 21 and 24 to the draft. We lose Baker, Short and Graham but gain Philips.
Taking a look at what that does for our Best 22 next year, assuming Grimes, Prestia and Dusty all retire. Dow would be delisted IMO.
B Broad, Miller, Vlastuin
HB DRioli, Gibcus, Brown
C Ross, Hopper, ???
HF Bolton, Balta, MRJ
F Mansell, Lynch, Lefau
R Nank, Taranto, Philips
I/C Campbell, McAuliffe, ???, ????, ????
I've left the question marks there for who fills those positions, but we'd have a list of players that could fill those spots but who have question marks around them for various reasons, Kmac, Pickett, Young, Koschitzke, Naismith, Ryan, Cumberland, Coulthard, HRS, Bauer, Tresize. Sonsie, Banks. Clarke, Green, Smith, , Fawcett, Pick 1, Pick 3, Pick 11, Pick 21 and Pick 24
Reckon that doesn't look as weak as some think. That best 23 can still be dangerous IMO and with plenty of upside that we've seen in a bunch of younger players.
So again, not sure what the purpose is to consider trading Bolton, especially as we wouldn't receive a trade anywhere near his value.
So this assumes finishing positions that I worked out based upon a ladder predictor I did but with the aim to show that we don't need to trade someone like Bolton to regenerate quickly. I've tried to be fair with trading.
Assumptions we finish 16th. With the other assumptions with finishing positions we'd start with Picks 3, 23, 33, 40 ,41, 51, 59, 68, 70
Trades I've assumed
Trade 1 - Graham leaves to go to Adelaide as a FA, Adelaide pay him enough for Band 3 compo, 2nd round pick so we get Pick 24 too
All other trades use original pick numbers to keep it easy to read
Trade 2 - Gold Coast, We receive Pick 9, they receive our future 2nd, 40, 41, 59 and 70
Trade 3 - Brisbane, We receive Pick 11 and their future 2nd, they receive Short, 23, 51 and 68
Trade 4 - West Coast, We receive Pick 1 and 21, they receive Baker and Pick 9 (what we got from Gold Coast)
Trade 5 - North, We receive Philips, they receive Pick 33
So this would leave us taking Picks 1, 3, 11, 21 and 24 to the draft. We lose Baker, Short and Graham but gain Philips.
Taking a look at what that does for our Best 22 next year, assuming Grimes, Prestia and Dusty all retire. Dow would be delisted IMO.
B Broad, Miller, Vlastuin
HB DRioli, Gibcus, Brown
C Ross, Hopper, ???
HF Bolton, Balta, MRJ
F Mansell, Lynch, Lefau
R Nank, Taranto, Philips
I/C Campbell, McAuliffe, ???, ????, ????
I've left the question marks there for who fills those positions, but we'd have a list of players that could fill those spots but who have question marks around them for various reasons, Kmac, Pickett, Young, Koschitzke, Naismith, Ryan, Cumberland, Coulthard, HRS, Bauer, Tresize. Sonsie, Banks. Clarke, Green, Smith, , Fawcett, Pick 1, Pick 3, Pick 11, Pick 21 and Pick 24
Reckon that doesn't look as weak as some think. That best 23 can still be dangerous IMO and with plenty of upside that we've seen in a bunch of younger players.
So again, not sure what the purpose is to consider trading Bolton, especially as we wouldn't receive a trade anywhere near his value.
14.6 so far for the year in front of goal.
That is a fantastic improvement.
Has Yze unlocked the one thing missing that was holding Shai back from being one of the absolute premium players in the comp?
That is a fantastic improvement.
Has Yze unlocked the one thing missing that was holding Shai back from being one of the absolute premium players in the comp?
Appreciate the work done here but you’ve absolutely maxed out those scenarios for us, they are very favourable.
Then you say we won’t get full value for Bolton, even though Freo will have two first rounders and will bend over backwards to improve their starting picks using some of the same methods you describe above. They will look at tradeable players and future picks also.
Once again, with Bolton we have the upper hand, we decide who to deal with.
Conversely, there is zero guarantee Brisbane or GC will deal with us.
Maxed out? The Gold Coast trade delivers them nearly 400 points gained on the 1 trade which is similar to many of the trades they did in 2023, they also get to move a pick into 2025 which I expect them to do with some of their picks.
The Graham one, I think Adelaide will play ball to ensure that we don't match. He's restricted afterall, so I think if they went for him, they'd pay enough to get a band 3 compo pick. There's a big difference from a pick 24 to a pick 38 or 39.
The Brisbane one, in terms of points they give us something like 1900 points, get back about 1150 and Short, value is somewhere around 750 which is around pick 25, perhaps weighted slightly in our favour but certainly not maxed out.
The Baker one, they are reported to be paying him $1m a year and I was told in other threads that Pick 1 and 21 for Baker and Pick 4 is not enough, I push that pick back 5 spots and now I'm maxing it out!! Ok then.
Philips - How much have other top 5 picks that aren't best 22 after 4 years in the system gone for?
Again, you ridicule this alternative options of how to do what you say we need to, as it doesn't fit your point that we must trade Bolton.
Also - who said there was a guarantee that either Brisbane or Gold Coast would deal with us? Why do you think theres a guarantee that Shai would want to go elsewhere? Doesn't stop your hypothetical.
I find it interesting that folks on this thread are at pains to say we should never follow Hawthorn's example of clearing out senior players, no no no.
And then happily cart Short, Rioli, Graham and Baker off to other clubs.
All in order to say there, you can achieve the same draft haul as you would've got from ONE senior player in Bolton.
I happen to think the severe Hawthorn clearance method is detrimental to the age spread you need to maintain. Aside from Shai, if Baker goes, he goes. I'd like to keep Shorty and Rioli as one-club elder statesmen as our next crop of youngsters come through.
And then happily cart Short, Rioli, Graham and Baker off to other clubs.
All in order to say there, you can achieve the same draft haul as you would've got from ONE senior player in Bolton.
I happen to think the severe Hawthorn clearance method is detrimental to the age spread you need to maintain. Aside from Shai, if Baker goes, he goes. I'd like to keep Shorty and Rioli as one-club elder statesmen as our next crop of youngsters come through.
no, this is wrong. we are talking about the probability of trades once we get to the table.
the starting points here are
1) bolton is available
2) GC's first rounder is available
and I am saying it is far more likely that we end up doing a deal for Bolton because we are the one vs many in that trade negotiation.
conversely, in seeking GC's first rounder, we are part of the 'many' suitors dealing with GC.
therefore, we are far more likely to miss out of the GC pick than we are of not getting a bolton trade done.
But they're older. So less likely to be in our next premiership. So if Bolton has no value, they have even less. Right?
Plus, if it makes us worse, then we get better picks in the next years draft, so even better value... Right?
