The Blair "Which?" Project

[seven]

Depends how good pick 1 is I guess! If it's a Harley Reid level player then I think it's pretty alright

Kind of between a Reid and McMahon type

​

 

[tigersnake]

If he asks to leave, what sort of deal do you think we do then? I can't think of much more, they won't be trading a No. 1 draft pick without getting a top 10 back.

Yes, out of contract and wants to go to WA is a deal changer. The Jeremy Cameron deal is informative. Out of contract and nominated Geelong. Got him for 50-60% of his "real" value. Real value being what he would fetch at an auction. The same thing will happen with Bakes. What would he get at auction? 6 or 7? We'll likely get 12-14. Could snag 10 in certain circumstances.

 

[btoz_01]

If WestCoke finish bottom 2
Trade should be Bakes and our second rounder for their first pick and 3rd rounder

 

[Willo]

No way…a robust Shiraz preferably something from McLaren Vale.
Oh and a top 10 pick minimum for Bakes

Or a nice Lagrein from Serafino’s.
Agreed

 

[momentai]

I reckon they could be quite active. The human Kenn doll from the Dogs, Baker and Graham backing up their midfield of Kelly, Yeo and Reid, if they can get Sheed, Ryan and Allen back for next year, then they could potentially rebound quite quickly. If they got those 3 and all the draft capital they gave up was Pick 1 and 21 and got back Pick 4, then I think they'd feel they'd done very well.

Are you suggesting we trade Baker, Graham and Pick 4 for picks 1 and 21?

 

[mrposhman]

Are you suggesting we trade Baker, Graham and Pick 4 for picks 1 and 21?

No, Graham is a free agent, so doesn't cost anything to West Coast which is what I was meaning. We would receive a compo pick for him if he leaves. Personally I don't see him going west but can see why they'd target him. More likely Adelaide will come in for him and he would obviously prefer to go to Adelaide especially if he and his partner might look to start a family, much easier with both their families around them

 

[K3]

Yes, out of contract and wants to go to WA is a deal changer. The Jeremy Cameron deal is informative. Out of contract and nominated Geelong. Got him for 50-60% of his "real" value. Real value being what he would fetch at an auction. The same thing will happen with Bakes. What would he get at auction? 6 or 7? We'll likely get 12-14. Could snag 10 in certain circumstances.

Is it that Baker intrinsically wants to go, or that the offer Wet Coke is putting up is too much to knock back?

IMO they are two different things, but I don't know if they translate differently to the pack of tossers at AFL.

 

[toothless]

Would worst coached trade out their first pick in a straight swap for Bakes? We should push for that.

 

[momentai]

No, Graham is a free agent, so doesn't cost anything to West Coast which is what I was meaning. We would receive a compo pick for him if he leaves. Personally I don't see him going west but can see why they'd target him. More likely Adelaide will come in for him and he would obviously prefer to go to Adelaide especially if he and his partner might look to start a family, much easier with both their families around them

I think popular opinion supports the notion that this years no 1 pick, possibly
Jagger Smith, (or whoever), is not in the same class as recent no 1 picks, Horne-Francis or Reid. The point is that pick 1 has no intrinsic value. It's value is only measured by looking at the footballer it may buy.
I think we know Baker is a high value player.
While pick 1 looks pretty, not so sure that I'd be giving up pick 4 and Baker, to get that deal over the line.

On the other hand Baker and pick 4 for Reid might work... Two boys allowed to go home.

 

[RoarEmotion]

If WestCoke finish bottom 2
Trade should be Bakes and our second rounder for their first pick and 3rd rounder

Imagine they would roll the dice and get him to nominate. Or at least threaten that’s what they will do forcing us into a deal with freo.

 

[mrposhman]

I think popular opinion supports the notion that this years no 1 pick, possibly
Jagger Smith, (or whoever), is not in the same class as recent no 1 picks, Horne-Francis or Reid. The point is that pick 1 has no intrinsic value. It's value is only measured by looking at the footballer it may buy.
I think we know Baker is a high value player.
While pick 1 looks pretty, not so sure that I'd be giving up pick 4 and Baker, to get that deal over the line.

On the other hand Baker and pick 4 for Reid might work... Two boys allowed to go home.

But the point is, he's out of contract. IF he asks to leave then it doesn't put us in the strongest spot especially with the potential threat of the PSD, though I don't think Bakes would ever allow that. Its going to be hard for him to turn down the offer. Over 5 years its probably close to $0.5m AFTER tax that he'd be better off.

As he's out of contract I don't think we can expect overs or potentially even fair value and have to look at what West Coast have to trade.
Pick 1 - they won't do that without probably a top 5 pick or close to it coming back
2nd round pick - 21 - that won't be enough

So there are probably 3 scenarios.

A similar trade to what I have suggested
Their 2nd this year and their 2nd next year
Potentially their 1st next year.

I get that Pick 1 might not be a stand out raving favourite, but if he decides to leave we need to be realistic which you aren't being.

No chance they give us Harley Reid for Bakes and Pick 4 for exactly the reasons why you don't want to trade for Pick 1 this year.

 

[tigersnake]

But the point is, he's out of contract. IF he asks to leave then it doesn't put us in the strongest spot especially with the potential threat of the PSD, though I don't think Bakes would ever allow that. Its going to be hard for him to turn down the offer. Over 5 years its probably close to $0.5m AFTER tax that he'd be better off.

As he's out of contract I don't think we can expect overs or potentially even fair value and have to look at what West Coast have to trade.
Pick 1 - they won't do that without probably a top 5 pick or close to it coming back
2nd round pick - 21 - that won't be enough

So there are probably 3 scenarios.

A similar trade to what I have suggested
Their 2nd this year and their 2nd next year
Potentially their 1st next year.

I get that Pick 1 might not be a stand out raving favourite, but if he decides to leave we need to be realistic which you aren't being.

No chance they give us Harley Reid for Bakes and Pick 4 for exactly the reasons why you don't want to trade for Pick 1 this year.

how about Reid for Bakes and our first?

edit, sorry my bad.

 

[wayne]

Wet Toast will be hoping for a couple of priority picks to help get the Baker deal done.

 

[Leysy Days]

how about Reid for Bakes and our first?

edit, sorry my bad.

Given what they knocked back for him last year plus how is starting to roll plus the adulation towards him by everyone (including media).

We'd need to throw in Bolton on top to get Reid out of West Coast.

Even then doubtful.

 

[tigersnake]

Given what they knocked back for him last year plus how is starting to roll plus the adulation towards him by everyone (including media).

We'd need to throw in Bolton on top to get Reid out of West Coast.

Even then doubtful.

I agree and you're probably right, but chances are Reid will do a Judd/ Danger/ Lynch and want to come home after serving some time. Could do a Boyd. Never say never, I'd say you're right, but it would be interesting.

Reid for Bakes and Shai if Reid is in for the long haul, I'd think about it then say no.
Reid for Bakes and Shai if you think Reid stays for 4 or 5 years? Hmmm.

 

[The_General]

No way…a robust Shiraz preferably something from McLaren Vale.
Oh and a top 10 pick minimum for Bakes

Beer kills steak imo.

i want a Red.
.
Australia is blessed with lots of great Shiraz. Heathcote. Grampians. McLaren Vale. Barossa
A Rhone Valley Syrah too if you want elegant wines, rather than a big oaky punch in the face you get with Australian Shiraz.

Definitely a top 10 for Baker.

 

[Redford]

Beer kills steak imo.

You’re out of your mind.

 

[The_General]

You’re out of your mind.

But not off my taste buds

 

[TheCan]

im happy send bolton and baker over for harley reid and second rounder back?

 

[Redford]

But not off my taste buds

Beer is carbonated so it cleans taste buds better than wine.