2023 Draft Thread. | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2023 Draft Thread.

It's a fine line, Bailey Smith was seen as too committed to the point of putting undue stress on his body and mind. It reminds me a bit of Cameron Bancroft, Gideon Haigh described him as being obsessive about playing for Australia, the events that followed not the least bit surprising, some professional sports stars will go to extraordinary lengths to achieve their goals.
Afl football is a tough game,the expectations to perform each week is high,and maintaining a healthy body and mind ,and home life.
Luckily clubs are so much advanced these days in handling mental health ,recovery ,even lifestyle.
 
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Afl football is a tough game,the expectations to perform each week is high,and maintaining a healthy body and mind ,and home life.
Luckily clubs are so much advanced these days in handling mental health ,recovery ,even lifestyle.
So true, Richmond has been exemplary when dealing with external matters, even when things go off the rails and the media throng are waiting to pounce. I tip my lid to the handling of Pickett, Stack, chopstickgate, Dimma's marriage breakdown, Yarran's personal issues etc. They are people after all, young ones at that, in a world where every move is being monitored by a general public armed with cameras. It's a tough game both on and off the field.
 
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Wasn't sure where to post, not really related to this drafts, but one of the provisions under the new CBA is 3 year contracts for first round picks. When you consider the success rate of top 4 compared to 5-10 compared to 11-18, Those top picks will become even more valuable.
 
A player l totally forgot about Sam Frangalas from the Dandenong Stingrays 187cm 85kg.
I reckon this boy could be a good rookie pick up,He doesn't mind the contested stuff,good in the air ,pace is quite good,kicking is indifferent ,thats were he needs to work on .

I found this footage from a game earlier in the season,l think he might have been injured during the season and missed a few games,but not entirely sure.
 
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Wasn't sure where to post, not really related to this drafts, but one of the provisions under the new CBA is 3 year contracts for first round picks. When you consider the success rate of top 4 compared to 5-10 compared to 11-18, Those top picks will become even more valuable.
Interesting that you have top 4 and not top 5, I reckon with Buddy, Rozee, Cerra, Parish, De Goey, Cunnington, Hurley, Boak & Pendlebury you can safely assume top 5 will land a good one. The busts have mainly been outside types, Polec (not quite a bust), Kade Kolodjashnij & Setterfield.
 
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A player l totally forgot about Sam Frangalas from the Dandenong Stingrays 187cm 85kg.
I reckon this boy could be a good rookie pick up,He doesn't mind the contested stuff,good in the air ,pace is quite good,kicking is indifferent ,thats were he needs to work on .

I found this footage from a game earlier in the season,l think he might have been injured during the season and missed a few games,but not entirely sure.
Son of ex tiger legend Gary. Only 83 games short of nabbing him as a F/s!
 
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Son of ex tiger legend Gary. Only 83 games short of nabbing him as a F/s!
That was my next question, Gary was a pretty good player, excellent overhead and played much taller than his height would suggest. I had a chat to Gary on FB and we had a chuckle about his only BOG which was at Kardinia a few decades ago. Played a blinder in a losing side.
 
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I'm really liking Charlie Edwards. Quick, clean, skillful 190cm mid who makes good decisions and rarely wastes it. A runner who can win his own ball.

 
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Its pretty silly and strange how they exclude the Northern academies. McKercher winning it with just 8 games exposes it as more silly. A gun like Walter could possibly win it in 6 games. How do they do the votes when Suns Academy play Geelong Falcons? Just pick the best 3 Falcons players? Walter, Read and Rogers all would have claims to the side of the year from their 5 or 6 games or whatever they play.

I don't begrudge these kids getting some recognition, but I just think its very silly and unnecessary to exclude the Northern Academies who also participate. A pretty irrefuteable example of the Melbourne centric culture.
 
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Compare the pair:

Logan Morris, 192cm fwd (Coates Team of the Year FF)
Coates league: 11.7d 4.8m (2c), 3g (10 games)
u18 champs: 12d 5.3m (1.3c), 1g

Heath Ollington 190cm fwd
Coates league: 15.6d 5.4m (1,5c), 2g (13 games)
u18 champs; 17.5d 5.5m (2c), 1g

HO gets up the ground a lot, more than Morris I'd say based on the champs but I haven't seen his Coates games. Knowing what a good mark Morris is, I was a bit surprised how well HO's stats compared marking-wise, and I was already a big fan.
 
Compare the pair:

Logan Morris, 192cm fwd (Coates Team of the Year FF)
Coates league: 11.7d 4.8m (2c), 3g (10 games)
u18 champs: 12d 5.3m (1.3c), 1g

Heath Ollington 190cm fwd
Coates league: 15.6d 5.4m (1,5c), 2g (13 games)
u18 champs; 17.5d 5.5m (2c), 1g

HO gets up the ground a lot, more than Morris I'd say based on the champs but I haven't seen his Coates games. Knowing what a good mark Morris is, I was a bit surprised how well HO's stats compared marking-wise, and I was already a big fan.
190cm versus 192 makes a huge difference. There's already question on Morris and his height. Tell me what role he plays. Tell me the type in the AFL he becomes. Would want to perform at a draft combine very well. At 190cm you need midfield capabilities. Need to be an elite runner.
 
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190cm versus 192 makes a huge difference. There's already question on Morris and his height. Tell me what role he plays. Tell me the type in the AFL he becomes. Would want to perform at a draft combine very well. At 190cm you need midfield capabilities. Need to be an elite runner.
Agree with all that. One of the main reasons I like him is clearing every hurdle easily so far, and he will be available at our pick. And the fact I saw him play a blinder live v VM. After I saw that game, I looked him up and there is no info, barely any mention, so I thought probably just a flash in the pan, a day out. But I started following him and he keeps getting in the best for the Devils, the best side, consistently, and the trajectory is up.

Played mid last season, and covers a lot of ground. Different to Morris in that LM plays more like a traditional KF, which is why I'm sceptical of him due to his height. I'd describe HO as a very physical wide roaming HFF. Like a j caddy I guess but quicker to my eye.
 
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Interesting that you have top 4 and not top 5, I reckon with Buddy, Rozee, Cerra, Parish, De Goey, Cunnington, Hurley, Boak & Pendlebury you can safely assume top 5 will land a good one. The busts have mainly been outside types, Polec (not quite a bust), Kade Kolodjashnij & Setterfield.
I posted this in the 2022 draft thread:

As I've always said, its a numbers game, there are first rounders and first rounders, picks 1 and 2 is very different to 5 and 6 is very different to 17 and 18. This is stark and interesting reading, picks 1 and 2 are the closest thing to bankers, (guaranteed 100 gamer, 70% chance 200 gamer). pretty good odds 3 to 5. fair drop 6 to 20, then another fair drop beyond 20. Interesting, there isn't much difference in odds off success as measured by likelihood of drafting a 100 or 200 gamer in the 21-30 (35% and 13%) and 31-50 ranges (33% and 15%). This analysis was done for all drafts since 93. It was a raffle early years, I'd like to see 2000 onwards.

odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:

Pick 1-2: 69 per cent

Pick 3-5: 38 per cent

Pick 6-10: 28 per cent

Pick 11-20: 27 per cent

Pick 21-30: 13 per cent

Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
 
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I posted this in the 2022 draft thread:

As I've always said, its a numbers game, there are first rounders and first rounders, picks 1 and 2 is very different to 5 and 6 is very different to 17 and 18. This is stark and interesting reading, picks 1 and 2 are the closest thing to bankers, (guaranteed 100 gamer, 70% chance 200 gamer). pretty good odds 3 to 5. fair drop 6 to 20, then another fair drop beyond 20. Interesting, there isn't much difference in odds off success as measured by likelihood of drafting a 100 or 200 gamer in the 21-30 (35% and 13%) and 31-50 ranges (33% and 15%). This analysis was done for all drafts since 93. It was a raffle early years, I'd like to see 2000 onwards.
I agree with most of this, my groupings are 1-5, 6-15, 16-30. Taking out pick 5 and lumping it in the 6-15 bracket probably underselling the importance of that pick, I think one can be distracted by the Polecs & Setterfields when it really comes down to targeting the right types and minimising the bust potential. Even at pick 4 there's been some shocking howlers, Tambling over Buddy, Toumpas over Wines/Macrae, Morton over Dangerfield/Rioli, Morabito over Cunnington etc.

The main observable change over the past decade has been the increased likelihood of landing an A grade forward in the 6-15 bracket, I think that is a better reflection of the bust potential. There was a time when clubs would make some big reaches, the Doggies spent big on Jarrod Grant & Tom Williams who would probably have gone late first round if drafted this decade.
 
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