Pick 29: Shai Bolton

[Carter]

In terms of a Freo scenario, let’s say they finish 5th and Collingwood finishes 12th.

So pick 7 and pick 14 (for simplicity let’s ignore potential priority picks and other complications)

If Freo also offered a future first the package might be 7, 14 and 16 over two years.

Slightly unders but I’d still be ok with it as I think we need those picks before Tassie rolls in.

These are three picks for midfielders who can run, hunt and dispose neatly. All at similar age and developing in our excellent nursery alongside McAuliffe, Campbell, etc.

 

[tiger76]

Again I'll ask you, who will have the currency to trade for him? No point saying we need to trade him but not give any way we could trade him. I wouldn't trade him personally, partly due to not wanting to trade for him and partly due to getting nowhere near his value. Ultimately those that would really want him won't be having top 5 draft picks, the likelihood of teams with top 5 draft picks would be West Coast, Hawks, North, us and 1 of Adelaide, Essendon, Bulldogs etc, so where are you getting this fantasy currency for him from? You've already mentioned we wouldn't trade him for a few teens picks so who do we trade him to so that we can get that seriously good talent at the top end.

Draft Guru (which may not be accurate), has Fremantle’s first 3 provisional pics at 5, 14 & 18.

If they came knocking?

* I’m not suggesting shipping him around but do feel that his trade for a good deal could work for both parties.

 

[mrposhman]

How are we getting 7 and 14?

Baker I had a trade for 14 and Treacy - think thats about right, possibly might have needed to throw something back at Freo but would be disappointed if it was much.

7 was from GC (the Dogs pick). Swap for picks 23 (our 2nd), 40 ( WC 3rd), 59 (our 4th), 70 (Ports 4th) and 30 (which I traded from Carlton for 41 (our 3rd), 51 (Freos 3rd) and 69 (Collingwoods 4th). Maybe we wouldn't need the carlton trade, we could just deal with GC, and potentially somehow get their Pick 9 too (their 1st) as I think they will plan to trade both down, but not sure what we have to trade for that pick, we would need to include future picks in some way.

 

[mrposhman]

Draft Guru (which may not be accurate), has Fremantle’s first 3 provisional pics at 5, 14 & 18.

If they came knocking?

* I’m not suggesting shipping him around but do feel that his trade for a good deal could work for both parties.

The low one is Collingwoods. I still expect them to make finals. I did a full season ladder predictor to build out a full ladder rather than just taking now.

 

[mrposhman]

In terms of a Freo scenario, let’s say they finish 5th and Collingwood finishes 12th.

So pick 7 and pick 14 (for simplicity let’s ignore potential priority picks and other complications)

If Freo also offered a future first the package might be 7, 14 and 16 over two years.

Slightly unders but I’d still be ok with it as I think we need those picks before Tassie rolls in.

These are three picks for midfielders who can run, hunt and dispose neatly. All at similar age and developing in our excellent nursery alongside McAuliffe, Campbell, etc.

I still expect Collingwood to make finals, so Freos picks will all be in the teens.

 

[Carter]

The low one is Collingwoods. I still expect them to make finals. I did a full season ladder predictor to build out a full ladder rather than just taking now.

Collingwood is falling off a cliff. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are cooked.

 

[Carter]

Baker I had a trade for 14 and Treacy - think thats about right, possibly might have needed to throw something back at Freo but would be disappointed if it was much.

7 was from GC (the Dogs pick). Swap for picks 23 (our 2nd), 40 ( WC 3rd), 59 (our 4th), 70 (Ports 4th) and 30 (which I traded from Carlton for 41 (our 3rd), 51 (Freos 3rd) and 69 (Collingwoods 4th). Maybe we wouldn't need the carlton trade, we could just deal with GC, and potentially somehow get their Pick 9 too (their 1st) as I think they will plan to trade both down, but not sure what we have to trade for that pick, we would need to include future picks in some way.

I think the GC scenario is unlikely and even the Baker one smacks a little of banditry.

 

[Coburgtiger]

A couple of holes in the various arguments put forward lately:

1) you can’t say that drafting is a “mystery box” and that it’s a “lottery you can’t depend on” and then in the same breath position “top five pick” in future predicted sides like it’s some shining proof of future success. At least with my proposal we have much more chance of getting the future midfield we need, and before Tassie joins the comp.

2) Folks can nit-pick that 2017 midfield all they like, the fact remains that we had seven reliable, very good midfielders by the time that grand final rolled around. Pinning our hopes on the likes of Dow and Ross reaching the heights of Lambert and Grigg is fanciful at best.

Where is our future success going to come from?

Ross isn’t premiership standard at the end of the day, we all know that deep down.

Dow is getting games purely because we have no one else.

Graham is increasingly injury prone and getting slower.

Hopper can’t get out on the park.

Prestia is done. Martin will be done soon and plays forward.

So who?

Taranto will lead our midfield.

Bolton is a superstar and also roams forward. No evidence yet he will assume full time duties at the coal face. It’s a tough gig and we haven’t seen him full time in there.

We have McAuliffe, who I rate.

A Campbell or someone could upgrade themselves, I will allow for this possibility.

So, being somewhat generous, that’s four midfielders.

Where do the other three quality midfielders come from?

Our only pick in the top ten this year?

But Coburg told me it was a mystery box and we’d only get a Lennon?

Can’t have it both ways. Fact is our projected midfield is dire. FA might help, but we also need a KPF or two as they’re harder to nail in the draft.

Bolton isn’t in our next window. Not with the limited draft / trade assistance we get if he stays. The rebuild will be too slow and that’s what folks don’t get.

Forget about trading Bolton for a moment - with the desperately thin midfield stocks we currently have, and our wingers on the edge of a cliff, we aren’t contending anytime soon.

It’ll take longer than many are hoping.

But at least we’ll be able to watch Bolton, like we got to watch Richo.

Carts.

The straw man is getting bigger and bushier.

None of this is relevant to your central contention, that we should trade Bolton.

Yes, there are holes in our list. Made much more dire by half the list being injured. Yes, we need to address them through draft, trade and free agency.

But.

You don't improve anything by trading Bolton.

He is simply too good. And we do not get his value in a trade. No matter where we go.

You have said you want to trade him so that we can contend again in 3/4/5 years.

Best case (and unlikely because who can) we get two top 10 picks for Bolton this year.

It is so, so, so unlikely that you will get a player of Bolton's quality with two top ten picks that will help us contend in the next 4-5 years. Top 10 picks have a failure rate too. Even with the world's best drafting. And there are so few top ten picks that would be anywhere near Bolton's level. For every Horne-Francis and Reid there's a Jack Watts and Andy McGrath. Best case scenario, you end up with another Bolton.

So, what you're suggesting is that we need to be looking 8 plus years in the future. No?

 

[mrposhman]

I think the GC scenario is unlikely and even the Baker one smacks a little of banditry.

Why is the GC scenario unlikely. They will either trade up or down. They way Lombard looks, he will be a top 10 draft pick, so you'd expect them to try and derive more value out of those draft picks. I personally think they will trade 1 pick back and 1 into next year.

 

[Carter]

Draft Guru (which may not be accurate), has Fremantle’s first 3 provisional pics at 5, 14 & 18.

If they came knocking?

* I’m not suggesting shipping him around but do feel that his trade for a good deal could work for both parties.

Freo are desperate to make hay with their skipper, serong, Brayshaw etc

If they finish 5th or thereabouts they will absolutely think they are a Bolton Shai of their first flag.

5 14 18 works for me, I’d take it and rebuild our *smile* midfield.

 

[Carter]

Carts.

The straw man is getting bigger and bushier.

None of this is relevant to your central contention, that we should trade Bolton.

Yes, there are holes in our list. Made much more dire by half the list being injured. Yes, we need to address them through draft, trade and free agency.

But.

You don't improve anything by trading Bolton.

He is simply too good. And we do not get his value in a trade. No matter where we go.

You have said you want to trade him so that we can contend again in 3/4/5 years.

Best case (and unlikely because who can) we get two top 10 picks for Bolton this year.

It is so, so, so unlikely that you will get a player of Bolton's quality with two top ten picks that will help us contend in the next 4-5 years. Top 10 picks have a failure rate too. Even with the world's best drafting. And there are so few top ten picks that would be anywhere near Bolton's level. For every Horne-Francis and Reid there's a Jack Watts and Andy McGrath. Best case scenario, you end up with another Bolton.

So, what you're suggesting is that we need to be looking 8 plus years in the future. No?

Sorry but this is ridiculous. I don’t know why drafting is suddenly so difficult in your eyes!

I am not looking for another player exactly like Bolton, I am looking for 2-3 midfielders who will play 200 games, rack up good numbers and dispose neatly.

Freo will offer us three first rounders and I would take them.

Why is it difficult to understand that we would be trading one player halfway through his career for three players at the start of their careers?

It’s just good business.

 

[Carter]

Yes, there are holes in our list. Made much more dire by half the list being injured. Yes, we need to address them through draft, trade and free agency.

This is the interesting part. If we don’t trade Bolton, who else aside from Baker has solid, realistic currency?

You say we need to “fill our holes” but cannot identify a suitable trade plan.

And if the draft is so hard to get right, what happens then when we inevitably pick Jack Watts’ idiot half brother at pick 5?

Our only first round pick this year because we haven’t traded into the pointy end?

How many years in the wilderness do we endure?

We could just enjoy watching Bolton take screamers and give away 50s, we’ll always have that.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Sorry but this is ridiculous. I don’t know why drafting is suddenly so difficult in your eyes!

I am not looking for another player exactly like Bolton, I am looking for 2-3 midfielders who will play 200 games, rack up good numbers and dispose neatly.

Freo will offer us three first rounders and I would take them.

Why is it difficult to understand that we would be trading one player halfway through his career for three players at the start of their careers?

It’s just good business.

With all due respect Carts its horrible business.

Trading players like Bolton are the reason why we have the Norfs of the world.

You build clubs around players like Bolton. I would also add Baker to the mix. They are the glue within the organisation. Culture and standard setters. Take them away and you are left with an emptiness that can’t be replaced. You end up 37 years in the wilderness. Remember those days?

 

[mrposhman]

This is the interesting part. If we don’t trade Bolton, who else aside from Baker has solid, realistic currency?

You say we need to “fill our holes” but cannot identify a suitable trade plan.

And if the draft is so hard to get right, what happens then when we inevitably pick Jack Watts’ idiot half brother at pick 5?

Our only first round pick this year because we haven’t traded into the pointy end?

How many years in the wilderness do we endure?

We could just enjoy watching Bolton take screamers and give away 50s, we’ll always have that.

I've already shown you a way to get 3 firsts this year (2 in the top 10), and there was logic behind all the trades. You have tried to undermine those trades as it doesn't suit your narrative.

 

[Carter]

Why is the GC scenario unlikely. They will either trade up or down. They way Lombard looks, he will be a top 10 draft pick, so you'd expect them to try and derive more value out of those draft picks. I personally think they will trade 1 pick back and 1 into next year.

I’d like to see that GC scenario but feel it’s unlikely

 

[Carter]

With all due respect Carts is horrible business.

Trading players like Bolton are the reason why we have the Norfs of the world.

You build clubs around players like Bolton.

No, you don’t Aces. Not Bolton.

You build around Petracca, Bontempelli, Martin, Cotchin, Dangerfield. Players that can will themselves to an elite level week in week out, no matter the calibre of their team mates.

Bolton belongs in a side that is already contending. He’s cream and it is crystal clear we ain’t contending in the near future.

 

[mrposhman]

I’d like to see that GC scenario but feel it’s unlikely

Why? They have always traded when they have top 10 draft picks to get the best value out of the system. Lombard will be a top 10 draft pick this year so why would they hold for example picks 7 and 9?

BTW Brisbane will also be looking for value for their Pick 11 or so, as Ashcroft will also likely be a top 10. Not sure on Adelaide, depends where they fall. I have them 6th last so don't reckon they would trade that as I don't think Welch goes in the top 6 but then they may trade something from next year into this years draft so could become involved with pick trading.

 

[Carter]

I've already shown you a way to get 3 firsts this year (2 in the top 10), and there was logic behind all the trades. You have tried to undermine those trades as it doesn't suit your narrative.

They’re a bit fanciful is all. I can’t see them happening. Every club will be squeezing GC for those picks. Why do they roll over for us? Bolton is ours and we control his trade destiny.

 

[Smoking Aces]

No, you don’t Aces. Not Bolton.

You build around Petracca, Bontempelli, Martin, Cotchin, Dangerfield. Players that can will themselves to an elite level week in week out, no matter the calibre of their team mates.

Bolton belongs in a side that is already contending. He’s cream and it is crystal clear we ain’t contending in the near future.

You are seriously disrespecting Bolton here.

Have you not watched any of the games this season??

 

[Coburgtiger]

Sorry but this is ridiculous. I don’t know why drafting is suddenly so difficult in your eyes!



I am not looking for another player exactly like Bolton, I am looking for 2-3 midfielders who will play 200 games, rack up good numbers and dispose neatly.



Freo will offer us three first rounders and I would take them.



Why is it difficult to understand that we would be trading one player halfway through his career for three players at the start of their careers?



It’s just good business.

For a start, no, Freo will not be giving us three first rounders for Bolton.



Again, this is not about the difficulty of drafting. There is always a stack of failures in the first round of the draft. And a stack of mediumly good players. Look at our 2021 pick 9 and 17. Similar to 2 of the 3 we could get from Freo (And more likely what we would get). Gibcus and Brown.



They were good picks!



But no Bolton.



But also, trading a great older players for a bigger number of potentially good younger players, does make a lot of 'business' sense. But then we should also trade Balta. Daniel Rioli. Gibcus. Baker. End of year we might even be able to trade McAuliffe for a higher pick than we got for him. That's good business sense.