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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
But the point of the argument is whether you trade one 26 y.o. mercurial talent for the maximum value you can possibly get to restructure your list for the future, plus keep maximum possible picks for other improvement deals.
Against ripping four core senior players in the 26 y.o. to 28 y.o. bracket plus a bunch of picks out of the side for similar value in kids.
Rip to big a hole in your list balance and there's bugger all senior players left to guide and develop the youngsters when the old players retire over the next two seasons.
Dunno about very favourable. Favourable sure, but in the ball park, all those trades are a good chance of happening (excepts Posh's pet Phillips one) and none of them in isolation are a stretch. But even if you make them unfavourable, for arguments sake, reduce the net benefit by 25% say, we still end up with an excellent draft hand and don't need to trade Shai. Again, like a stuck record, 'need' is the key word here. You'd be at pains to trade him if you needed to, but we don't need to.
This is a straw man. In my case I criticised the Hawks for punting, in different ways, Hodge, Lewis and Roughy. The equivalent would be like us punting Cotch, Shed and Jack. Totally different. And in the case of Bakes, he's being poached, not punted, and I don't think many, if any, are happy about it.
You still need instruction and on-field leadership.
My proposal is one player, the counter proposal is a most Hawthorn-esque clean sweep.
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It is a double standard.
Now all of a sudden it’s ok to let Baker, Rioli etc go, all hopes of a quick bounce up the ladder forgotten.
I know exactly what you meant, but it has to be apples and apples. I'm sure the Hawks fans were more comfortable with Birchall, Smith and Gunston leaving than Hodge, Lewis and Roughy.
Its not a double standard. I don't think anyone is OK with Dan and Bakes going, but if they want to we move on, and none of that is mutually exclusive with said ladder bounce, which may or may not happen.
I've not seen anyone say Rioli should go. Most of us are looking at Baker because of the media reports, I go back to your previous point around probabilities, he's more likely to go than most others (I have never heard Boltons name in the media so balance of probabilities suggest there is no chance he leaves) as we just won't match the size of some of the potential amounts being thrown around. Short is just one thrown out that could potentially go but no-ones pushing him out and is probably 1 of those that is less likely to be moved on, which at that point we go after Brisbanes pick with an accumulation of picks, again they will sell it to the highest bidder. Carlton's 1st is another option that will likely be sold to the highest bidder unless its a top 10 pick.
Again, nobody has said we are happy for any of these players to go, but IMO using your balance of probabilities argument, IF players were to leave I'd guess Baker and Graham are 2 more likely than others to go, hence why they have been included in my possible scenario.
Not at all, if you go back to my post that showed the scenario we could look at, I think our best 22 wouldn't look any worse next year with the trades.
The 3 players I've spoken about:
Baker - obviously would be a loss but I reckon we would get a good trade for him to offset him, but sure a short term loss
Graham - I like Graham but he can make our midfield a bit slow, I think Will Philips could provide similar defensive output with an improved ball winning output
Short - A big part of our defence but this is a position we could lose someone out of. We could use Brown off half back, and play Tresize. We could use 1 of our new drafted mids as a half back in the same way North used Sheezel and the Pies used Daicos off half back. Its an entry point into the system, and then we also have Smith.
i don't want to lose any players who are likely to be in next years best 22.
Broad and Graham still have value and might be targets particularly in their home states. Both out of contract and likely to attract end of 2nd round compensation?
Short has dropped off appreciably but still maybe worth a late 1st rounder. So has tall defender Young who may also attract interest?
On the other hand Baker and Rioli, both contracted, should be pressed to go on. Ditto Dusty and Tom.
Unfortunately however it looks like Baker will go. In doing so I think he will look after us, in what promises to be a hot contest, - with maybe a trade for West Coasts 1st, likely a top 4 pick, to come our way.
Colina, Grimes, McIntosh and Prestia to retire.
Broad and Graham still have value and might be targets particularly in their home states. Both out of contract and likely to attract end of 2nd round compensation?
Short has dropped off appreciably but still maybe worth a late 1st rounder. So has tall defender Young who may also attract interest?
On the other hand Baker and Rioli, both contracted, should be pressed to go on. Ditto Dusty and Tom.
Unfortunately however it looks like Baker will go. In doing so I think he will look after us, in what promises to be a hot contest, - with maybe a trade for West Coasts 1st, likely a top 4 pick, to come our way.
Colina, Grimes, McIntosh and Prestia to retire.
I would argue you still need x-factor and matchwinners.
The rare, A-grade, top 5 in the AFL player that makes the difference on Grand Final day.
And we have exactly one of those on our list at the moment.
And these types are infinitely harder to find than half back flankers, no matter how good. We also have a few more elder statesmen with leadership qualities.
Regardless, I would rather not trade Rioli and Baker, but we might have to. It can be turned into a win win.
I would trade Shorty, because I think the draft value we'd get for him is higher than his value to us, as much as I've been his biggest fan over the years.
And all this is secondary to your suggestion that none of that matters. That a player only has value in the premiership window.
You seem to be jumping between two ideas. Players value is business only, and that swapping older players for younger picks is good business sense, and that we aren't contending in the next 5 years. Or, some players are fabric of the club, being old is irrelevant, and we need them for success in the near future.
I can only reconcile these, if all of this is predicated on the fact that you don't rate Shai Bolton.
Are you the bloke who sits behind me and keeps yelling out that he's a show pony?
Again this is all rather hyperbolic. You say Bolton can make a difference on grand final day, and I agree, but he isn’t going to play in another one. Not at our club. Because if we keep him we’re moving too slowly. Has this sunk in yet?
Bolton is a non-negotiable keeper for you, as you think we will bounce quickly, but Baker and Rioli can be traded. Talk about conflicting ideas.
Yes, I do believe in keeping senior players like Rioli. Why? Because trading the ONE player I’ve nominated will usher in a raft of top end talent that will need a framework of leadership to thrive in.
In a scramble to argue against a Bolton trade that is unlikely to happen but theoretically sound given the state of our list, folks have apparently abandoned holding the line on our prospects and have us selling off anyone over 25 who isn’t Bolton.
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I will throw this thought out to PRE.
Bolton is great. Bolton has become a true matchwinner.
Bolton is a millstone around the club’s neck.
Bolton is mid-table for a list that deserves and in fact craves to be low-table.
Bolton is 3-4 extra wins in 2025 at a time when we should be gunning hard for pre-Tassie ND picks.
Bolton is two first-rounders and a good player.
Bolton is the chance to reset the list and bottom out quickly and efficiently, the opposite of Hawthorn.
Bolton will excite and delight us into another Richo era of mediocrity.
Bolton is great for the competition.
Bolton has been wonderful for the Richmond Football Club.
Bolton is bad for the Richmond Football Club.
Bolton is great. Bolton has become a true matchwinner.
Bolton is a millstone around the club’s neck.
Bolton is mid-table for a list that deserves and in fact craves to be low-table.
Bolton is 3-4 extra wins in 2025 at a time when we should be gunning hard for pre-Tassie ND picks.
Bolton is two first-rounders and a good player.
Bolton is the chance to reset the list and bottom out quickly and efficiently, the opposite of Hawthorn.
Bolton will excite and delight us into another Richo era of mediocrity.
Bolton is great for the competition.
Bolton has been wonderful for the Richmond Football Club.
Bolton is bad for the Richmond Football Club.
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If Bolton can win us 3 - 4 games in 2025, that won’t affect our ladder and draft position that much, because they’re likely to be the only wins we get. Trading out Deledio while still under contract and paying some of that to GWS made sense, because Lids was broken. Bolton isn’t. You want to burn it all down and turn Richmond into #lolnorf.
This idea:
Is just the consequence of your own rationale. You said that if a player isn't going to be part of your next premiership they have no value. And there are older players than Bolton on the list. So, either the idea is silly or it's not.
Again, I don't want to trade Baker and Rioli.
We may not get a choice. If they want out, we may have to. Bolton doesn't. This matters.
There is another interesting question. On game day next year, and for the next 4 or 5, who offers more? Baker plus Rioli or Bolton?
This is a difficult question to answer. I would tip toward Baker plus Rioli, however, we do have some replacements for them, who might approximate those roles. Bolton? Nope. Irreplaceable. We have no other lightning mid/forwards who can gather 25 disposals and kick 2 goals (something Bolton is starting to do and I think will do regularly over the next 5 years - there will even be some 30 and 3 games).
We have a few running backs. No one of Riolis standard, but that's why he has trade value. Baker is now a small forward (I think? He's a little homeless on game day). There's Smith and Green in the wings, Campbell and Sonsie already taking his spot, but it would hurt to lose Baker.
He may already be on the way out. I hope not. But there's two first round picks.
Hopefully we can find a way to retain at least one of Rioli or Baker. It will be a lot harder to contend with both gone.
We can keep Daniel easily enough. He's contracted for three more years after this. By then he'll be 30 and we'll have a clearer picture of where we're at with Tassie about to enter.
Love to have Lynch out there playing with Bolton , what a combo forward they would be , doubt will ever see Lynch near his brilliant best again , however if we could find another tough smart big key forward to work along side Bolton we’d be a long way to playing finals again
