A Preseason Preview - Part 2 of 16 - Hawthorn

[pahoffm]

The Hawks – With a new look.

As it will be nearly completely Tiger supporters reading this thread I will try to get to the point without waffling on too much about the intricacies of the Hawthorn football club.
The Hawks have a new look. Alistair Clarkson is the new coach, and he has assistance from recently retired Damien Hardwick, as well as Todd Viney and Ross Smith. The new list including rookies is:

Everitt 203 103 31
Taylor 200 101 23 New
Campbell 199 110 23
Hay 196 96 25
Willday 196 82 19 Rookie
Franklin 196 87 18 New
Holland 195 103 31
Dawson 195 79 19
Barker 194 86 30
Scott 193 90 25
Boyle 193 92 21
Roughead 193 88 18 New
Kirkby 192 80 18 Rookie
Nixon 191 84 21 New
Croad 190 96 25
Thurgood 190 70 20 New
Beaumont 189 87 30
Jacobs 189 93 25
Lonie 189 90 22
Murphy 189 83 19 New
Young 189 76 19 Rookie
Dixon 188 89 28
Little 187 74 19 New
Lewis 186 87 19 New
Lekkas 185 85 29
Smith 185 87 28
Brennan 185 84 20
Hodge 184 92 21
Ball 183 85 23
Kane 183 84 22
Greene 182 77 23
Ries 182 82 23
Williams 180 82 22
Sewell 180 86 21
Mitchell 179 85 23
Ladson 179 78 21
Vandenburg 178 87 28
Osborne 178 81 23
Brown 177 81 21
Clarke 176 77 23
Crawford 174 79 30
Bateman 174 78 24
Height 174 78 22 Rookie
Miller 174 77 20

The Hawks’ list has changed with 8 new faces on their senior list, compared to our 10 new faces. It is interesting that the Hawks have listed 4 rookies as compared to our 2 only, and we already know the reason for that.

The Hawks’ list can be redistributed into a spread that I'll compare to the Tigers which goes:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

Hawks
<180 Small Runners
Twilight: Crawford 30, Vandenburg 28
Prime: 0
Development: Bateman 24, Clarke 23, Mitchell 23, Osborne 23, Height 22
Junior: Brown 21, Ladson 21, Miller 20

Tigers
<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Krakouer 22,
Junior: Rodan 21, Foley 20,

Hawks     
180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Ball 23, Greene 23, Ries 23, Kane 22, Williams 22
Junior: Hodge 21, Sewell 21

Tigers
180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Chaffey 28
Prime: Brown 27,
Development: Pettifer 23, Newman 23, Hyde 22,
Junior: Hartigan 20, Gilmour 19, Roach 19, Meyer 18, Raines 18, Tambling 18,

Hawks
185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Beaumont 30, Lekkas 29, Dixon 28, Smith 28
Prime: Jacobs 25
Development: Lonie 22
Junior: Brennan 20, Lewis 19, Little 19, Murphy 19, Young 19

Tigers
185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Campbell 32
Prime: Bowden 27, Johnson 27, Hilton 26, Tivendale 26,
Development: Tuck 23, Coughlan 23,
Junior: Jackson 19, Deledio 18, Polo 18,

Hawks 
190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Barker 30
Prime: Croad 25, Scott 25
Development: 0
Junior: Boyle 21, Nixon 21, Thurgood 20, Roughead 18, Kirkby 18

Tigers
190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Graham 32, Gaspar 29, Kellaway 29
Prime: 0
Development: Morrison 24,
Junior: Moore 21, Schulz 20, Archibald 19, Thursfield 19, McGuane 18, Limbach 17

Hawks 
195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Holland 31
Prime: Hay 25
Development: Campbell 23
Junior: Dawson 19, Willday 19, Franklin 18

Tigers
195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Richardson 30
Prime: Simmonds 27,
Development: Hall 24,
Junior: Pattison 19

Hawks
200+ Ruck
Twilight: Everitt 31   
Prime: Taylor 23
Development: 0
Junior: 0 

Tigers 
200+ Ruck
Twilight: Stafford 30   
Prime: Knobel 25,
Development: 0
Junior: 0
 
Like the Tigers, the Hawks are bothered with a skewed list, which has a few players in the twilight zone and many players yet to reach their prime. They are very thin in the area of Prime and Development aged key position players. Yes, over the last 2 years they have recruited rigorously to cover this, but the majority of this still remains in the junior zone. Hawthorn are better off than Richmond is having a very good collection of Development & Junior Smalls & Smaller Medium runners. Their problem is that by the time these junior key position players hit their Development/Prime stage, most of their runners will be well into the twilight zone. This is a problem for the Hawthorn football management staff and not for us to worry about, but I suggest to them that they should look to replenish their runners every year to keep themselves young in this area. Overall their spread does look in a bit better position to recover than ours.

The depth of the Hawks, in covering injuries, can be seen as follows:

B: Bateman 24 Hay 25 Beaumont 30
       Kane 22 Nixon 21 Lonie 22
      Thurgood 20

HB: Smith 28 Croad 25 Lekkas 29
     Sewell 21 Scott 25
                  Kirkby 18

C: Jacobs 25 Ball 23 Brennan 20
Murphy 19 Hodge 21 Young 19

HF: Ries 23 Holland 31 Crawford 30
Williams 22 Barker 30 Greene 23
Ladson 21 Boyle 21 Brown 21
      Roughead 18

F: Campbell 23 Dixon 28 Clarke 23
Dawson 19 Little 19 Osborne 23
Franklin 18        Miller 21

R: Everitt 31 Vandenburg 28 Mitchell 23
     Taylor 23 Lewis 19 Height 22
     Willday 19


Yes they have a lot of small & small medium runners, but many of these are flankers not big kick winners. The layout of the team looks a bit thin in genuine ball getters, and the defence looks a bit thin.

Conclusion:
It is a bit hard to place the Hawks. Their runners are fortunately a year older and closer to the Prime zone, but their Key Position players are clearly underdone. I’d say like us 2005 will be a passing time year, hoping to quickly develop their KPPs. Like us they will be looking to make their mark in 2006. I think their current list is in a position where it can recover a bit quicker than ours and have a red hot go then. If they are training as intensely as we are, then I think that they will do better than us based on their more experienced runners. Also like us they are going to have to learn to spread the load better.

Also thank you to Disco08 who has sent me a coded format for my tables, but I just don't have the time to place all the names of the Hawthorn players into this format. But I do appreciate your effort.

Again, I look forward to your responses.

 

[dmx]

I am so glad that GM and TW are at the tigers. When you compare the 2 camps, its pretty clear who has the whip hand.

 

[zips]

Phanto, I reckon the coaching teams between us & the Dawks is a major differentiator. I'm not convinced about Clarkson or the clowns assisting him. ;D

 

[The Mighty Wozman]

Phantom, this is a well structured and executed body of work, particularly the comparison.  I see the main deficiency with the Hawks' list is their lack of quality young players.  Sure, they have recruited well in the recent draft but have been found wanting blooding new players over the last season or two.  I think last year they blooded Sewell, Brennan and an older Ball - certainly not what I call quality or quantity.  Let's face it, at the start of last season they actually thought they were a chance of playing off and even rated themselves as having the "best list in Victoria"...  This misconception and ill-judgement will leave them in the wilderness for the next 5 years in my opinion.

 

[pahoffm]

Phanto, I reckon the coaching teams between us & the Dawks is a major differentiator.   I'm not convinced about Clarkson or the clowns assisting him.    ;D

Actually in terms of assistant coaches we are very similar.
Hardwick and King are premiership players who have just retired. Smith and Royal both have been out of the game for a while but both have played finals. Viney and Alessio are obviously different. I'm not sure if the Hawks have a specialist ruck coach. (Hopefully, a Hawk supporter can tell us.)

The main difference resides in the senior coaches. Wallace, 3 premierships as a player, coached in finals. Clarkson, I don't believe played premiership football, and having his first go at coaching.
But you never know, the Tigers greatest coach was just an ordinary player - Hafey - and arguably the Hawk's greatest coach was an ordinary footballer - Jeans. So time will tell.

Phantom, this is a well structured and executed body of work, particularly the comparison. I see the main deficiency with the Hawks' list is their lack of quality young players. Sure, they have recruited well in the reccent draft but have been found wanting blooding new players over the last season or two. I think last year they blooded Sewell, Brennan and an older Ball - certainly not what I call quality or quantity. Let's face it, at the start of last season they actually thought they were a chance of playing off and even rated themselves as having the "best list in Victoria"... This misconception and ill-judgement will leave them in the wilderness for the next 5 years in my opinion.

Hard to tell with young players. They can look ordinary as teenagers, then at 20, 21 or 22 they just click. The biggest worry for them is that their senior kpps are prone to injury, eg Hay & Holland. I think this will be a determining factor.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Phanto, I reckon the coaching teams between us & the Dawks is a major differentiator.   I'm not convinced about Clarkson or the clowns assisting him.    ;D

You neglected to mention the Dermie factor. Interesting report Phanto.

 

[pahoffm]

Phanto, I reckon the coaching teams between us & the Dawks is a major differentiator.   I'm not convinced about Clarkson or the clowns assisting him.    ;D

You neglected to mention the Dermie factor. Interesting report Phanto.

I'd imagine Dermie & Dunstall may have some influence on their key forwards. But then, may be Board commitments may distract these 2 from giving their junior kpps the necessary attention.

 

[dmx]

But you never know, the Tigers greatest coach was just an ordinary player - Hafey - and arguably the Hawk's greatest coach was an ordinary footballer - Jeans. So time will tell.

Jeans was at the right place at the right time. Hawthorn had got together a talented team from their respective zones, and then the AFL puts the shackles on all the clubs re. the draft.
What followed was a period of dominance for them, while all the other clubs struggled to build sides by way of the draft.

 

[The Mighty Wozman]

The biggest worry for them is that their senior kpps are prone to injury, eg Hay & Holland. I think this will be a determining factor.

True Phantom, I find it hard to believe that someone like Barker can still be on a list...  Apart from 2001, I cannot recall him being a decent player both before and after (regardless of his apparent "injuries").  The Holland contract makes the Gaspar contract look like a coup in comparison ... ;D ;D

 

[pahoffm]

The biggest worry for them is that their senior kpps are prone to injury, eg Hay & Holland. I think this will be a determining factor.

True Phantom, I find it hard to believe that someone like Barker can still be on a list...  Apart from 2001, I cannot recall him being a decent player both before and after (regardless of his apparent "injuries").  The Holland contract makes the Gaspar contract look like a coup in comparison ... ;D ;D

Yes, a bit strange. Couldn't understand them trading Rawlings and Thompson, yet holding onto Barker, Hay, Holland, Dixon, players with poor injury records. Without being privy, I suppose contracts have probably had alot to do with it.

 

[Stu]

I completely disagree with you that Hawthorn are ahead of us in having a lot more developmental smaller players, while they certainly have more, I think their role in the game is getting less relevant these days and their job can be done by the smaller mediums who can be just as athletic. We only need a selection of specialist smalls, I think 3 or 4 is about right.
Players like Tambling, Meyer & Gilmour are going to do the same job a <180cm running player would, but have an advantage in height. I think the Hawks stocks in so many small players is ridiculous.

<180cm Hawks 10 Tigers 3
Sm Med Hawks  7 Tigers 11
Tall Med Hawks 11 Tigers 10

Hawks real problem is their tall meds, they will make up the core of their midfield and fill in up forward and in defence. Once those 4 twilight players are gone, their midfield is going to be seriously lacking and will have to rely on their <180cm players to get the job done against some much bigger bodies. I just don't see it working.

Hawks are definitely ahead of us regarding ready to play kpps, but I would suggest that our veterans in this area have a lot more to contribute than Barker or Holland, who I suspect will only get a game out of necessity and thats if they can even get on the field, same goes for Hay

 

[pahoffm]

I completely disagree with you that Hawthorn are ahead of us in having a lot more developmental smaller players, while they certainly have more, I think their role in the game is getting less relevant these days and their job can be done by the smaller mediums who can be just as athletic. We only need a selection of specialist smalls, I think 3 or 4 is about right.
Players like Tambling, Meyer & Gilmour are going to do the same job a <180cm running player would, but have an advantage in height. I think the Hawks stocks in so many small players is ridiculous.

<180cm Hawks 10 Tigers 3
Sm Med Hawks  7 Tigers 11
Tall Med Hawks 11 Tigers 10

Hawks real problem is their tall meds, they will make up the core of their midfield and fill in up forward and in defence. Once those 4 twilight players are gone, their midfield is going to be seriously lacking and will have to rely on their <180cm players to get the job done against some much bigger bodies. I just don't see it working.

Hawks are definitely ahead of us regarding ready to play kpps, but I would suggest that our veterans in this area have a lot more to contribute than Barker or Holland, who I suspect will only get a game out of necessity if they can even get on the field

Yes, but have a look at the comparison of ages between their runners and ours. Not only do they have 17 to our 14, but 8 of our 14 are still in the junior stage, whereas 10 of their 17 are in the development stage. Their runners are ready to run now, ours will still take a couple of years.

 

[dmx]

Yes, but have a look at the comparison of ages between their runners and ours. Not only do they have 17 to our 14, but 8 of our 14 are still in the junior stage, whereas 10 of their 17 are in the development stage. Their runners are ready to run now, ours will still take a couple of years.

According to Parko, these developmental runners were running before now, running away and crying in mummy's arms, LOL

 

[pahoffm]

Yes, but have a look at the comparison of ages between their runners and ours. Not only do they have 17 to our 14, but 8 of our 14 are still in the junior stage, whereas 10 of their 17 are in the development stage. Their runners are ready to run now, ours will still take a couple of years.

According to Parko, these developmental runners were running before now, running away and crying in mummy's arms, LOL

Wow, that was a logical retort.

 

[Chiang Mai Tiger]

We have gone statistic mad over the years, Kevin Morris and Stan Alves I read were all wrapped up in them. Problem is although statistics win on paper they stink on grass.

 

[dmx]

We have gone statistic mad over the years, Kevin Morris and Stan Alves I read were all wrapped up in them. Problem is although statistics win on paper they stink on grass.

fully concur Chaing, this is how you get a player like Chaffey being classed as being in his twilight. twilight what? when did he have his prime? I am still waiting for it.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

For a club who had a reputation of being a well run club the off-season has shown they have lost the plot in 2 things.
Coaching appointment
After not gaining TW the next logical candidate was Eade.Instead of going for a proven coach they instead go for another "rookie" coach who like spud has never tasted success at the highest level.to me this tells me they appointed Clarkson for one reason and one reason alone.to make the list very attractive over the next 2yrs for a more high profile coach to takeover.They are playing with fire that could easly backfire on them.
In that period[2yrs] the playing list could very well end up with the same level of confidence as what our players had towards the end of spuds reign and no matter how good the new coach is he will have to start over again and those 2yrs have been wasted]sound familar?
Big mistake Hawks!

Draft
There biggest blunder was playing funny buggers with their 1st rnd picks.You should never try and call a bluff with such important picks.They knew part of their weakness is their onball brigade and instead of snagging a Tambling/griffen and a Franklin they shot themselves in the foot by doing the unthinkable.Considering they had 3 picks in the top 7 and only end up with a plodder in lewis its fair to say they got it all wrong in the draft.

This is why i believe they will be the new Richmond of the 00,s to what we were in the 90,s.

 

[Daigoro]

Yes, but have a look at the comparison of ages between their runners and ours. Not only do they have 17 to our 14, but 8 of our 14 are still in the junior stage, whereas 10 of their 17 are in the development stage. Their runners are ready to run now, ours will still take a couple of years.

Disagree Phantom. Hawks runners are a big, big weakness in comparison to us. In your analysis you leave out Cogs, Johnson, Tivendale, Bowden because they are tall.

The way I see it, the Hawks have Crawford (30yo), V'Burg (28yo), Mitchell, Batemen, Hodge as genuine current midfielders or midfield prospects. The rest of them like Clarke, Greene, Sewell, Osborne, Ries etc etc are not good enough to make it and the mids they have drafted recently do not show anything.

At least our junior mids show a bit.

 

[pahoffm]

We have gone statistic mad over the years, Kevin Morris and Stan Alves I read were all wrapped up in them. Problem is although statistics win on paper they stink on grass.

Little wonder then that Morris has been a respected coaching assistant for over 20 years, and that Alves' foray into coaching was relatively successful. Wish previous Tiger football departments had learnt how to read a spreadsheet and statistics.
Oh that's right. Morris was in our football dept for 2 years. That's right, 1994 & 5. Maybe it was a coincidence we were competitive and made the finals that period.

Don't worry CMT. I still love ya'. Remember, today is Friday. I have little tolerance for anything on a Friday.

 

[dmx]

For a club who had a reputation of being a well run club the off-season has shown they have lost the plot in 2 things.
Coaching appointment
After not gaining TW the next logical candidate was Eade.Instead of going for a proven coach they instead go for another "rookie" coach who like spud has never tasted success at the highest level.to me this tells me they appointed Clarkson for one reason and one reason alone.to make the list very attractive over the next 2yrs for a more high profile coach to takeover.They are playing with fire that could easly backfire on them.
In that period[2yrs] the playing list could very well end up with the same level of confidence as what our players had towards the end of spuds reign and no matter how good the new coach is he will have to start over again and those 2yrs have been wasted]sound familar?
Big mistake Hawks!

Draft
There biggest blunder was playing funny buggers with their 1st rnd picks.You should never try and call a bluff with such important picks.They knew part of their weakness is their onball brigade and instead of snagging a Tambling/griffen and a Franklin they shot themselves in the foot by doing the unthinkable.Considering they had 3 picks in the top 7 and only end up with a plodder in lewis its fair to say they got it all wrong in the draft.

This is why i believe they will be the new Richmond of the 00,s to what we were in the 90,s.

Its what you get when you think highly of players that basically carved out superstar careers from the work and cunningness that was done down the ground.
Lets face it, how much of what was happening down the ground did Piggy see, how many times did the ball come spearing in to him after the opposition was checkmated by sweeping moves conjured up from defence and then filtering through the general Plough.

Now he goes around thinking he knows what a player is, and by and large, he has Fs all over the report card.
As for dermie, well, he was a star CHF, that boasts about how he busted heads, and then comes on the box and proceeds to inform us to the "exact science" on how a player is for eg. peeling off because he knows that there is high percentage of the ball getting there, only to have the ball go inthe opposite driection time and time again.
These 2 are the brains trust behind the Hawks now.
is it any wonder Scott wanted to break down the doors?
He knows who the smarts were and who were the glory boys.

He is cunning, he has laid low now, knowing full well, that by this time next year, there wont even need to be an election, the red cartpet will be out for him.