Geelong's finishing position: have I got this right? | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • If you are having trouble logging in to the forum please contact [email protected] // When reseting your password or awaiting confirmation please check that your email is correct and also your junk/spam emails.
  • IMPORTANT! Our inbox is full of email errors from members who have not updated their emails, please follow the instructions on how to update here
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Geelong's finishing position: have I got this right?

Number8

Tiger Matchwinner
Oct 12, 2010
940
2,018
Melbourne
I ain't no mathematician, so apologies to the smart people here.

I'm trying to determine the likelihood of where their (our) first round draft pick will fall**.

• If Geelong loses this week, the Cats finish fifth (the lowest they can finish)
• If Geelong wins this week, they are among the last four and cannot finish lower than fourth

• If Geelong loses its prelim and Brisbane/Footscray loses its prelim, the Cats finish third
• If Geelong loses its prelim and Port loses its prelim, the Cats finish fourth

• If Geelong wins its prelim, it cannot finish lower than second

Have I got that all right?

If so, here are my random best guesses at where they'll finish based on them being, say, 60/40 to beat GWS:

Fifth—40% (draft pick #14)
Fourth—15% (draft pick #15)
Third—30% (draft pick #16)
Second—10% (draft pick #17)
First—5% (draft pick #18)

** Not allowing for compensation picks, etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

Number8

Tiger Matchwinner
Oct 12, 2010
940
2,018
Melbourne
Taking this a step further ...

• We received Geelong's 2021 first round pick in exchange for our 2020 first round pick
• The Cats took Max Holmes with that pick, which ended up being pick 20

• It was pick 20 because we traded up in the first round
• That pick was originally St Kilda's, and we received it as part of the deal that sent Jack Higgins to Moorabbin (swap of first round picks)

• Our original first round pick from 2020 ended up blowing out to an astonishing pick 26 once all the AFL's draft gifts were handed out to the also-rans
• The Saints took Matthew McLeod-Allison with that pick

So ...

• This year, we know the first round will probably blow out by two picks (Darcy and Daicos)
• We can, therefore, expect our pick 7 to become pick 9
• In addition, Geelong's pick, which we now hold, could become anything from 16 to 20

The net result is that the worst we can do is to have traded 2020's pick 20 for 2021's pick 20.

The interesting side note is that, you would assume, the Tigers saw nothing left on the board in 2020 that was worth spending a first rounder on. The early evidence probably favours us.

After Holmes was taken at pick 20, the most likely prospects (on very early form) are Bowey at 21, Poulter at 30, McCreery at 44, Edwards at 52 and Ford at 56 (NB: the likes of Gulden and Downie were not available, being academy players).
 
  • Like
Reactions: 6 users

toothless

Don't push me 'cos I'm close to the edge...
Aug 16, 2009
1,927
1,032
...or you can just wait another week or two...
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 1 users

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,525
15,608
I ain't no mathematician, so apologies to the smart people here.

I'm trying to determine the likelihood of where their (our) first round draft pick will fall**.

• If Geelong loses this week, the Cats finish fifth (the lowest they can finish)
• If Geelong wins this week, they are among the last four and cannot finish lower than fourth

• If Geelong loses its prelim and Brisbane/Footscray loses its prelim, the Cats finish third
• If Geelong loses its prelim and Port loses its prelim, the Cats finish fourth

• If Geelong wins its prelim, it cannot finish lower than second

Have I got that all right?

If so, here are my random best guesses at where they'll finish based on them being, say, 60/40 to beat GWS:

Fifth—40% (draft pick #14)
Fourth—15% (draft pick #15)
Third—30% (draft pick #16)
Second—10% (draft pick #17)
First—5% (draft pick #18)

** Not allowing for compensation picks, etc.

I like my probabilities served as an entreé 8'y,

so I'll participate.

The bookies rarely get probabilities wrong,

Normally, I think gambling pervades out sport enough on its own, and I stick to the betting threads,

but this is maths, and we are just being collegiate,

so I suggest them (rounded up) to build your matrix .

Cats to win Semi $1.5 ($3 to lose)
Cats to win Prelim $3
Cats to win Flag $6
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

percyms

Tiger Champion
Feb 24, 2008
2,605
521
So if Collingwood have to match a Nth bid bid to get Daicos do they still keep their 2nd pick???? Giving them effectivley pick 1 and 3 or if say they use pick 2 because Nth take somebody else at 1 do they get pick 2 and maybe another top 10 pick becuase Carlton (for example) bid on Daicos. This system is soooooooo broken and unfair.
 

Harry

Tiger Legend
Mar 2, 2003
22,923
8,128
So if Collingwood have to match a Nth bid bid to get Daicos do they still keep their 2nd pick???? Giving them effectivley pick 1 and 3 or if say they use pick 2 because Nth take somebody else at 1 do they get pick 2 and maybe another top 10 pick becuase Carlton (for example) bid on Daicos. This system is soooooooo broken and unfair.
GWS have pick 2. Collingwood traded it to them last year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

DjJazzyPete

Tiger Matchwinner
Sep 8, 2014
617
331
Nata , Botswana
Let's hope Melbourne does the right thing next week and Smash the Cats... that will give us pick 15? , 16 ? ( before Father and son pics )
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

Number8

Tiger Matchwinner
Oct 12, 2010
940
2,018
Melbourne
Let's hope Melbourne does the right thing next week and Smash the Cats... that will give us pick 15? , 16 ? ( before Father and son pics )
Yep, best we can hope for now is the Cats finish 4th, but 3rd looking the most likely outcome (i.e. Dees and Port win).

Them finishing third delivers us pick #16, which will push out to #18 with Darcy and Daicos matched bids.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

TigerPort

Tiger Superstar
Jun 29, 2006
1,863
1,255
NSW
Yep, best we can hope for now is the Cats finish 4th, but 3rd looking the most likely outcome (i.e. Dees and Port win).

Them finishing third delivers us pick #16, which will push out to #18 with Darcy and Daicos matched bids.

Unless Bulldogs finish 15th and have to use that on Darcy.........or they can trade it to us.......

So the pick would only go out by one to #17
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

Tigers of Old

Proud of our Club.
Jul 26, 2004
70,084
14,720
www.redbubble.com
I'm sure at the time we made the trade we'd have expected the Cats to fall away this season. Then the rule changes came in post draft that benefitted their list & game plan. Yet another thing we can than SHocking for.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
20,891
6,426
Tel Aviv
At worst, if Geecheat win the premiership - heaven forbid - then it’s pick 18 pushed out to 20 because of f/s’s.

In 2020 we had pick 20 after F/A comps.

2021 is a better Draft, it’s looking, so it’s still a win for us regardless. The only thing that might stuff us up is any free agent compo for the Swans if Parker leaves ?

Edit: announced this afternoon that Parker has re signed. Good.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

btoz_01

Tiger Legend
Apr 5, 2004
8,050
814
With the pussies diving out of contention
Do we end up with draft pick 15 or 16 ?
 

TrialByVideo

HailBGale!
Mar 1, 2015
3,048
5,055
Doesn't matter as dogs will jump the queue to take Darcy. It'll be pick 17 after the FS picks. Picks 9 and 17 effectively
Yeah ok H.... maybe I should've said we're one spot better off should the dogs win tonight.