Coronavirus

[MD Jazz]

Perhaps people will start thinking about their way of life and what really matters. I for one don't want to miss any more tigers games so I want this over as quick as possible.

 

[AngryAnt]

We're lucky we're not living in the era of bubonic plague (another Chinese export). They would've had little warning and no concept of germs or how they spread. Just people suddenly dying. It was eventually overcome - through quarantine.

(Yes I know plague is still around. We're the only continent that doesn't have it.)

First evidence of bubonic plague was found in a tomb in current day Sweden dating from circa 3000-3500 BC.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Australia has the lowest death rate among the 19 countries with 2000+ cases. Let's keep it that way and help the doctors to do their thing.

First evidence of bubonic plague was found in a tomb in current day Sweden dating from circa 3000-3500 BC.

Fair enough. Was talking about the first recognised pandemic in the 14th century.

 

[AngryAnt]

Australia has the lowest death rate among the 19 countries with 2000+ cases. Let's keep it that way and help the doctors to do their thing.


Fair enough. Was talking about the first recognised pandemic in the 14th century.

yeah.. sorry to be pedantic. For me this issue of where a virus originates is nonsense. If the bubonic plague emerges again in Mexico City and becomes a global pandemic do we yell abuse at Mexicans on the street?

Yes, China's local response was poor. They got better very quickly and have retooled factories and are now manufacturing thousands of ventilators for export. They are providing doctors and nurses and expertise to other countries. I hate the CCCP as much as the next guy but let's not blame "China".

Meanwhile other governments are making the same mistakes or worse.

 

[DavidSSS]

Hey Antman, I think you're confusing the Chinese Communist Party with the old Soviet olympics uniforms

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

yeah.. sorry to be pedantic. For me this issue of where a virus originates is nonsense. If the bubonic plague emerges again in Mexico City and becomes a global pandemic do we yell abuse at Mexicans on the street?

Yes, China's local response was poor. They got better very quickly and have retooled factories and are now manufacturing thousands of ventilators for export. They are providing doctors and nurses and expertise to other countries. I hate the CCCP as much as the next guy but let's not blame "China".

Meanwhile other governments are making the same mistakes or worse.

OK, I take the point that blaming right now isn't useful. I suspect one consequence will be a resurgence in national pride. Some will hate it but I'd see it as a huge positive. It'd put certain "commentators" out of a job.

MAGA.

 

[DavidSSS]

Meanwhile, in the USA we are seeing some truly ridiculous statements:

The Washington Examiner reported the following comments by the Lt Governor of Texas Dan Patrick:

While appearing on Monday's Tucker Carlson Tonight, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said at-risk patients, specifically older grandparents, are willing to risk dying of COVID-19 if it means businesses and employees could resume their normal economic routine.

Yep, the economy is apparently more important than people, so much so we should be willing to lay down our lives to help the economy stay healthy. Neo-liberalism in a nutshell really.

DS

 

[jb03]

One thing I am disappointed in is they have not come out and said how people are being infected? Is it at parties/gatherings? Is it indirectly through surfaces? Have all people that have caught it been in direct contact with a carrier?

Has anyone caught it from an ATM? A petrol bowser? Or is it simply impossible to know if not through direct contact?

I'd like to know more about the transmission.

I'm not sure they really know

 

[Tigers of Old]

They are going to make it very simple that's coming soon no doubt but they have to get the masses prepared for it first its been a mission creep every 2-3 days with increased restrictions being implemented.

Why wait to make communication simple?

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

For a slogan man, Scotty's let himself down on this one.

 

[KnightersRevenge]

...
...

As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

Are you volunteering to be number 18? I'm not.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

The world is burning because in our folly we have destroyed the division of labour. It is a harsh calculus but 80+ year old people dieing a few years earlier is the lesser evil. I in no way make light of that statement, I have 3 grandparents still alive but at this rate I won’t be able to attend their funeral if indeed they are allowed one.

You mentioned suicide earlier; think about the mental damage it would do if 1 in 6 (probably a lot more in practice) 80yo's is allowed to contract the disease and die. How many bereaved, how many depressed, the effect on morale, the loss of productivity, the long-term burden on health care. Probably many other effects I haven't thought of.

Certainly I would hold the government responsible for any personal loss if that was the policy. It's untenable and sick, and not countenanced even in far less democratic societies than ours.

I really do understand your perspective regarding the substantial trade-off, but it's not a holistic one.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

This suggests Australia's elderly are isolating themselves pretty well, as they're obliged to do. The rest of us, not so well.

 

[tigerdell]

As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

Are you volunteering to be number 18? I'm not.

So it could be that the health systems keep many sick under 50s from dying.
It is reported that Covid19 is treatable in a hospital eg ventilators and oxygen machines.
And the treatment is more effective for younger / fitter people.

But if this spreads and overloads the hospital system, so that treatment for severe cases is simply 'stay home' then the numbers of dead under 50s will no doubt be much higher than 17.
That is the panic that Italy and Spain are facing

 

[Bernie]

This explains why Italy has copped the brunt of the Coronavirus.

CORONA VIRUS EXCLUSIVE: WHY ITALY? - AltNewsMedia

As the impact of the Corona Virus (Covid-19) continues to grow, nowhere in Europe has been more affected than Italy, and in particular northern Italy. With a complete lockdown announced […]

www.altnewsmedia.net

Gee Tigerman, you have some interesting sources of information.

 

[tigerman]

Gee Tigerman, you have some interesting sources of information.

I'm always looking for explanations Bernie.
Data tells you a lot, as in what different countries are doing right and wrong.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Case count excluding China (updated 11:30pm)

355,595 cases
16,356 deaths (4.60%)
11,856 severe (3%)
289,155 mild (81%)
38,228 recovered (11%)

 

[Tigers of Old]

NSW has shot past 1000 cases this morning. Have we closed the border to NSW yet?

 

[Bill James]

(Apologies drafted this last night but forgot to hit post. Data is a day behind.)

Now here is one for those beguiled by the Twitter Expert explaining the chessboard effect of COVID R0 compared to flue R0. R0 if you missed it is the number of people you will pass it on to. It is believed that a COVID positive person will pass it on to twice as many people as someone with the flu. The hasty conclusion is that it will, therefore, spread faster.

But
How quickly after infection can you pass it on?
How susceptible are other people you meet to infection?

WHO explained these differences in Situation Report 46 on 6th March. (Sorry I missed it at the time, I scanned over the page to the stats.)





Annual flu infections are estimated at around 1,000,000,000 per annum with annual deaths estimated at around 500,000 about 67% of whom are over 65
So far this year COVID 19 has infected around 700,000 people and resulted in deaths estimated at around 14,500 about 95% of whom are over 60

For COVID to kill as many people as the flu this year it will need to infect 24,000,000 people, which requires a daily increase of 92,000 a day for the rest of the year.

You might argue exponential curves, but the curves only run exponentially for a few weeks, not all year. More on that tomorrow.

Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
LOOK AFTER YOUR OLDIES.

 

[tigerlove]

But you don’t even know what the calculus of that price is. You sound like a CC alarmist now. Prison time for a birthday party, get a hold of your senses!

Where are you getting this from? Sounds like you're making things up.