The problem with a total shut down is the question of when to come out of it. To be absolutely sure that the virus has been eradicated you would need to have tested every single person in the country. If even one person still has it when you come out of lock down then you are back at square 1.
This is not a short term thing. The Government is saying six months but listen to what Morrison said a few times in answering questions - that this will be with us for a very very long time. Estimates of 12 to 18 months before a vaccine is available then more time to get everyone vaccinated.
Go into total lock down then yes the virus hits a brick wall but then, if this thing goes into next year, the supply of food, electricity and medical assistance becomes stressed and we are all in a world of hurt.
Correct and I don't see the health issue and the economic issue being mutually exclusive. Both must be dealt with in tandem.
I would think if what we are being told about transmission occurring over a 14 day period, that a 30 day shutdown would likely eradicate the majority of the asymptomatic carriers from being said carrier, and by then those that have it and will become ill will have likely entered hospital so as long as there are ongoing restrictions in visitation etc then there would be a good chance of being able to contain any future outbreaks particularly if cross country border closures are maintained.
Its entirely feasible that there will be restrictions on our lives for the foreseeable future and potentially as long as 18 months until a vaccine can severely restrict the mortality rate, but that shouldn't mean that normality does not return in other ways much much quicker.
To me this seems like the best option but one the government still seems hesitant to take and they seem to want to tiptoe around the closures but that is creating a lot of uncertainty as to what people can actually do. Mixed messages such as massages parlours / tanning / waxing salons being banned but leaving hairdressers open. They ask that you keep appointments to less than 30 mins but claim that it only takes 15 mins for transmission.
I also note, that NZ is now in shutdown but from what I understand there have not been mass layoffs, which I think is largely due to the wage subsidy put forward by the government. For example, the company I work for are able to sustain employment of all of our workers (including casuals) due to the subsidy despite moving to zero revenue, which would be most companies preference, yet our government have not gone down this route and job losses have been very large already this week, which is very sad when for the same money they have put forward they could have supported jobs in basically the same way.
To those that say don't criticise, well some of us can see the impending doom coming out of this, and in some ways it feels like we are trying to preserve lives now but at the expenses of lives in the future as we know with a significant downturn and people losing houses etc suicides will spike.
There are some governments that are dealing very well with this crisis, there are others that are not and I would put our government somewhere in the bottom half.
