AFL Betting Thread

[spook]

Tigers and Port clear standout flag faves for me.

I got on Port last night at $8, you can still get $7.50 with Bet365. We're $4.50 with most, $5.20 on Betfair. I've had a snip at the $5.20 but reckon we can get a better price at some point.

 

[MD Jazz]

Tigers and Port clear standout flag faves for me.

I got on Port last night at $8, you can still get $7.50 with Bet365. We're $4.50 with most, $5.20 on Betfair. I've had a snip at the $5.20 but reckon we can get a better price at some point.

Yeh, I can't really understand Port's price. Can't see them missing top 2 unless some really bad injuries. Our main danger.

Not sure our price is gonna get much better, bookies have been bitten a few times by eZyT already haven't they?

 

[eZyT]

Tigers and Port clear standout flag faves for me.

I got on Port last night at $8, you can still get $7.50 with Bet365. We're $4.50 with most, $5.20 on Betfair. I've had a snip at the $5.20 but reckon we can get a better price at some point.

theres a lot of water to flow under the fridge, obviously,

but I had Port, Dogs and WC as our "challengers" preseason.

Even though its 400% interest,

theres no reflection of the risk at $5 tiger flag IMO.

lets not be coy, If Dusty broke a leg, we are back to only about 30% better than the challengers

I'll take $7 when I see it, and stay out and play the quinellas in August if I dont.

 

[spook]

Yeh, I can't really understand Port's price. Can't see them missing top 2 unless some really bad injuries. Our main danger.

Not sure our price is gonna get much better, bookies have been bitten a few times by eZyT already haven't they?

Our Round 4 game against Port will move the market one way or the other. If we lose that we'll get out a bit, even more if St Kilda beats us the next week.

 

[eZyT]

Yeh, I can't really understand Port's price. Can't see them missing top 2 unless some really bad injuries. Our main danger.

Not sure our price is gonna get much better, bookies have been bitten a few times by eZyT already haven't they?

Its a strange market Jazz.

we could easily be $2.1 in an elimination final against Port in September,

which is far less risky than $4.50 for the flag in March.

We have a tough run through April/May.

we will drop a few and they'll breifly wind us out to $6+

Even the bookies will fall for the seductive wishful thinking that someone will knock us off,

which as long as Dusty is fit, won't happen IMO

something I think we can be pretty sure of is, if the footy gods said to Dimma

'you can be 23:0 after the H&A or you can be 18:5'

I reckon Dimma would take 18:5.

He would view 23:0 as a season without learning.

there will be opportunities for us

 

[MD Jazz]

theres a lot of water to flow under the fridge, obviously,

but I had Port, Dogs and WC as our "challengers" preseason.

Think the dogs are a massive lay. They have a terrible backline and a flakey forward line. Naughton is talked about like Carey, jury still out for mine about how good he will be. Their midfield racks up the stats but what does it translate to? The first round in 2021 is pretty typical IMO - 1st for diposals, 14th for scores. In 2020 they were high in disposals (3rd) and UP (2nd). First in handballs. High in disp eff. 16th for marks. 7th in goals. Last in intercepts. Their talls are crap. It's not a brand that wins pressure games or finals IMO.

Saints clearly a better side/prospect for mine.

 

[Ridley]

Think the dogs are a massive lay. They have a terrible backline and a flakey forward line. Naughton is talked about like Carey, jury still out for mine about how good he will be. Their midfield racks up the stats but what does it translate to? The first round in 2021 is pretty typical IMO - 1st for diposals, 14th for scores. In 2020 they were high in disposals (3rd) and UP (2nd). First in handballs. High in disp eff. 16th for marks. 7th in goals. Last in intercepts. Their talls are crap. It's not a brand that wins pressure games or finals IMO.

Saints clearly a better side/prospect for mine.

Agree with this. That Dogs/Pies game on Friday was rubbish. Dogs' midfield gets a heap of pill but is quite inefficient.

That win for the Saints helps set them up. With the players they had out they were entitled to lose. It was a good win but also helped by the fact they played a team with no ticker. But the Saints will finish higher than the Dogs IMHO.

 

[Ridley]

Our Round 4 game against Port will move the market one way or the other. If we lose that we'll get out a bit, even more if St Kilda beats us the next week.

It's pretty important that we win the next 2 against the Hawks and Swans. Can't really afford an upset with Port in Adelaide and Saints at Chernobyl the following 2 weeks. Port are always up and about more than us early in the season and this will be almost a GF for them; they'll be hell bent on revenge. The Saints always trouble us at Chernobyl but have no hope against us at the G.

As annoying as it will be I can see these 2 games as losses but 3-2 is not so bad and not real issue for us. 2-3 whilst not disastrous is far from ideal. Top 4 (preferably top 2) is the goal so really want to be no worse than 3-2. The reality is that we won't win every game.

 

[eZyT]

Think the dogs are a massive lay.

they essentially all are.

Its the Richmond epoch.

its the same as last year.

theres 5 or 6 sides fighting out 2nd.

at this stage, Id have them as Port, WC, dogs, Brisbane, saints, gws, cats?

it doesn't really matter who wins that competition.

 

[Redford]

GWS to beat Freo as $2.04 underdogs in Perth this week. Freo are ordinary and injury ravaged. GWS showed enough yesterday.

 

[spook]

Carlton 2.05
Collingwood 1.80

Reckon they've got that arse-about.

 

[Ridley]

Carlton 2.05
Collingwood 1.80

Reckon they've got that arse-about.

Massively arse about. If Scumton is serious about playing finals they need to be beat Scumwood this week. Scumwood was very ordinary against the Dogs; reckon Scumto will win comfortably.

Those odds won't last either. Already moved from $2.10 - $1.72. Be very surprised if Scumton don't start favourites.

 

[spook]

I just snaffled the little available on Betfair for a Richmond-Port quinella at $13. Seems overs.

West Coast to beat the Dogs is paying $2.27. The Eagles have won their past 4 at Marvel, and their only loss to the Dogs in their past 6 meetings was by 2 points at Metricon last year when they were sooking it up at having to be in a hub.

 

[MD Jazz]

they essentially all are.

Its the Richmond epoch.

its the same as last year.

theres 5 or 6 sides fighting out 2nd.

at this stage, Id have them as Port, WC, dogs, Brisbane, saints, gws, cats?

it doesn't really matter who wins that competition.

I'll be surprised if Tigers/Port aren't 2-3 games clear on top.

 

[Ridley]

GWS to beat Freo as $2.04 underdogs in Perth this week. Freo are ordinary and injury ravaged. GWS showed enough yesterday.

Giants might win but only because of Freo's injury list. Thought Giants were quite pathetic yesterday. They should have beaten the Saints with all those outs and the game in Sydney. No ticker.

 

[Ridley]

I just snaffled the little available on Betfair for a Richmond-Port quinella at $13. Seems overs.

West Coast to beat the Dogs is paying $2.27. The Eagles have won their past 4 at Marvel, and their only loss to the Dogs in their past 6 meetings was by 2 points at Metricon last year when they were sooking it up at having to be in a hub.

Reckon it depends if the Eagles players' mummies can fly over with them. The Eagles really don't like leaving the Optus Stadium security blanket behind. The coach is just about the main offender. Geez he sooked it up in that Amazon series.

 

[spook]

There are a number of bankers this week that I can't see losing.

Port 1.17 at home to Essendon. Generous for certainties.
Ditto us v Hawks 1.19
Sydney 1.44 at home to Adelaide
Saints 1.58 v Melbourne without a forward line at Marvel
Suns 1.35 at home to Norf - beat them by 10 goals last year

 

[Ridley]

There are a number of bankers this week that I can't see losing.

Port 1.17 at home to Essendon. Generous for certainties.
Ditto us v Hawks 1.19
Sydney 1.44 at home to Adelaide
Saints 1.58 v Melbourne without a forward line at Marvel
Suns 1.35 at home to Norf - beat them by 10 goals last year

Yeah looks a moral all up.

 

[Redford]

Giants might win but only because of Freo's injury list. Thought Giants were quite pathetic yesterday. They should have beaten the Saints with all those outs and the game in Sydney. No ticker.

Give me $2.50 and I'll prove it to you Chumpley Chimps.

 

[spook]

Geelong at 1.61 at home to Brisbane is value considering the Cats have won 10 of their last 11 meetings, choked the other one by a point in a sauna, and the Lions haven't won at Kitty Litter Park since 2003.