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AFL Betting Thread

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,669
7,288
WTF is going on with the GF Quins market this year?

tigers $3.75
Cats $5
Lions $5

for the flag

by my reckoning, that should make the Tigers/Cats and Tigers/Lions Quins $10 ((3.75 X 5 / 2) + a bit)

but both Quins are $5?

the bookies have gone completely pissweak on half price GF quins this year

why?
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,047
2,482
Melbourne
WTF is going on with the GF Quins market this year?

tigers $3.75
Cats $5
Lions $5

for the flag

by my reckoning, that should make the Tigers/Cats and Tigers/Lions Quins $10 ((3.75 X 5 / 2) + a bit)

but both Quins are $5?

the bookies have gone completely pissweak on half price GF quins this year

why?
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
 
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an_oxford_man

Tiger Champion
Nov 21, 2004
2,544
100
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
Probability is the simple world of gambling in any context isn't it, JB? Excellent work. But I think Ezy is bagging them for being *smile* weak in the premiership market which might suggest a wide field, and then gutless in the GF quinella market.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,669
7,288
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.

In the past 3 years, the GF market has been pretty much framed as

Side A GF odds = $4 (to make GF =$2)

side B GF odds = $10 (to make GF = $5)

there AB GF quin has been $2 x $5 + about 20% (premium because the 2 best sides can end up on the same side of the draw)

I got the GF quit in '17 and '19 at between 25 - 1 and 50 -1

the bookies have gone fully, inexplicably pissweak in 2020 on this market
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,047
2,482
Melbourne
In the past 3 years, the GF market has been pretty much framed as

Side A GF odds = $4 (to make GF =$2)

side B GF odds = $10 (to make GF = $5)

there AB GF quin has been $2 x $5 + about 20% (premium because the 2 best sides can end up on the same side of the draw)

I got the GF quit in '17 and '19 at between 25 - 1 and 50 -1

the bookies have gone fully, inexplicably pissweak in 2020 on this market
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).

You can use racing to understand - the logical method of assessing a place price is a third (or a quarter from the old bookies methodology) but if you had a $1.10 favourite and the second favourite was $10.00 with the rest of the field over $40 then the odds of the second favourite running a place is likely to be $1.20-$1.40, not a third or a quarter of $10.00. The footy works in a similar fashion.
 
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MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
5,597
2,552
If you assume the Top 4 will remain unchanged and also that they will fill the GF positions there are only 6 real possible quinella outcomes.

The Tigers combos will be shortest given our favouritism.

I think the Tigers v Port GF quinella should be the shortest..
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,669
7,288
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).

You can use racing to understand - the logical method of assessing a place price is a third (or a quarter from the old bookies methodology) but if you had a $1.10 favourite and the second favourite was $10.00 with the rest of the field over $40 then the odds of the second favourite running a place is likely to be $1.20-$1.40, not a third or a quarter of $10.00. The footy works in a similar fashion.

I take your points JB,

But it doesn't change the fact that the GF quins this year are half what they have been for the last 3 years

less than half
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,055
393
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
 

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
23,885
2,858
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
Now there’s a challenge!
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,669
7,288
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!

yeah what the *smile* do you know jb you good for nothing closet Collingwood *smile*.

how's that Leysy?

Seriously though, I think suggesting my logic is flawed, is flawed.

The fact that the finals are seeded removes your place price (i.e. a GF berth) argument.

and halved or not, the GF price is usually around half the premiership $ price (I agree if you say 7/2 to anyone under 40, they think your telling them the time)

I still want some explanations as to why the Quin value has vanished.

I was getting $9-$10 on likely couplings throughout the tiger dynasty, and it cant be explained away by the tigers dominance, quins without us (effectively a bookmaker donation) are halved too.

I reckon either 1. its pure bookie cynicism and they realise that dumb 20 years olds will back anything on their phone without any mathematics whatsoever

or 2. Some syndicate (like David Walsh and his eastern European friends) is working the quins

the dramatic inflation (>50%) makes me seriously suspect the latter
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,047
2,482
Melbourne
yeah what the *smile* do you know jb you good for nothing closet Collingwood *smile*.

how's that Leysy?

Seriously though, I think suggesting my logic is flawed, is flawed.

The fact that the finals are seeded removes your place price (i.e. a GF berth) argument.

and halved or not, the GF price is usually around half the premiership $ price (I agree if you say 7/2 to anyone under 40, they think your telling them the time)

I still want some explanations as to why the Quin value has vanished.

I was getting $9-$10 on likely couplings throughout the tiger dynasty, and it cant be explained away by the tigers dominance, quins without us (effectively a bookmaker donation) are halved too.

I reckon either 1. its pure bookie cynicism and they realise that dumb 20 years olds will back anything on their phone without any mathematics whatsoever

or 2. Some syndicate (like David Walsh and his eastern European friends) is working the quins

the dramatic inflation (>50%) makes me seriously suspect the latter

I would need the @The Big Richo to list out all the errors in that post
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,047
2,482
Melbourne
Special shout out to @spook who suggested the Rich Brissie GF quinella 2 or 3 months ago. Took the 30s and 28s on offer Betfair but alas it wasn't to be
 
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