We were never that keen Cerra and we ignored Johnson, tells you a bit about what we don't value.
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2021 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Rfc4Ever
- Start date
Well I suppose history will be the judge, Cerra would have been a nice addition but not nearly as nice as Gibcus/Johnson, I'm still not sure how we can devalue a polished ball user, I think this one comes back to bite, but best of luck to Brown, I see the logic in pairing him up with Gibcus, that aspect in isolation was forward thinking. Enough to warrant such a reach? Not for mine but let's just wait and see, I also thought Doedee was a reach but he's kind of vindicated his draft position. That would be the best outcome so fingers crossed.
I personally think we've done very well. don't think Brown was a reach considering Sydney were prob going to take him the following pick.
also IMO comparing him to the cost of pure running rebounders like Short, Saad, Bonner etc. isn't quite right - from what I understand he's more your medium aerial intercept defender with a hint of rebound... a Vlastuin / Doedee / Stewart / Howe type. Quite happy to pay a late 1st for those myself.
also, it's been mentioned but if we take Johnson we very likely don't get the Sonz at 28.
also IMO comparing him to the cost of pure running rebounders like Short, Saad, Bonner etc. isn't quite right - from what I understand he's more your medium aerial intercept defender with a hint of rebound... a Vlastuin / Doedee / Stewart / Howe type. Quite happy to pay a late 1st for those myself.
also, it's been mentioned but if we take Johnson we very likely don't get the Sonz at 28.
Missing on Sonsie the risk but I suspect he would have been there given Hawthorn baulked, my back-up plan was Taylor at 28 but I do think Sonsie's perceived poor attitude had nuked his chances at most clubs in twenties range. As a risk/reward approach I think it was fine. I actually don't think the gulf between Sonsie & Taylor is 16 spots but the acceleration is certainly worth something and we did well to pick him up.
As for the comparisons above, Stewart & Doedee are slightly taller but for game style fairly similar. Some big shoes to fill but if we're talking agility, then Brown is in the same bracket. Doedee finished top 6%, having a basketball background clearly a bonus & these guys continue to make a seamless transition. Don't think Brown is in the ballpark with Vlastuin with his contested work, this will be the make or break factor. I'm feeling a Pittard vibe, I hope he's much more than that and I hope he fills Houli's shoes, even if that's only at 80%.
Besides 2019 Blivass has been very very ordinaryI reckon a fair bit of this will happen, but I'm not sure how much of it should. It would really recast the side. Maybe that's what we need? It could also see us drop enough early games to put us right behind the eight ball.
I can definitely see Hardwick using Balta in the ruck rover role. He would be amazing. I think Blicavs is wasted at full back, for example. That tall, mobile guy around the ground makes you so much less predictable. Stack going forward makes sense now that we have 25 other options for half back flank.
I loved Rioli off half back and I'm not worried like some about his distance kicking. But with Brown coming in, I can see we want more kicking penetration as part of a fast turnover game plan.
Castagna as captain? No brainer
would you exchange first round 187 HBF'er Nick Vlastuin for anyone in the 2012 draft @bullus_hit ?
I wouldnt. Not even Fatty Wines
Disclosure: I was at that draft and was livid we passed on Grundy and took a 'blue chip HBF', similarly to my initial reaction when we took Tom Brown. I couldn't believe it.
looking at the 2012 draft, it appears to be one of the lightest on talent ever? It reads like Richmonds playing list all through the 90's
I wouldnt. Not even Fatty Wines
Disclosure: I was at that draft and was livid we passed on Grundy and took a 'blue chip HBF', similarly to my initial reaction when we took Tom Brown. I couldn't believe it.
looking at the 2012 draft, it appears to be one of the lightest on talent ever? It reads like Richmonds playing list all through the 90's
Brodie Grundy - I've ranked Grundy at the top of my list because as the old adage goes, if all things are considered even, always pick the bigman. Rucks may fit into their own category but the hit rate with top ten rucks has been pretty solid of late, and the smooth moving athletic beasts almost always emerge somewhere in the top ten.
The particularly impressive thing with Grundy has been the rate of improvement from last year. This may go largely unnoticed by some, given he was an All- Australian last year, but he seems to be adding a few more strings to his bow that weren't so obvious last year. His work below the knees is improving at a rate of knots and in the process, some comparisons with Dean Cox have begun to emerge. He moves like a midfielder and would be seen as an additional playmaker once the ball hits the turf.
His marking has also made some important strides, and although I wouldn't consider it a standout feature at present, I predict he'll become a dangerous resting forward with a few seasons under his belt. I've mentioned that he reminds me of a young Kurt Tippett and the reasons for this stem from his excellent aerial awareness and his ability to use his height to gain advantage in a contested marking situation. The overall consistency isn't quite there yet, but given he's new to the game and his learning curve has been noticeably steep, I'm predicting big things from him as he learns to ply his trade in the forward line.
At worst, I can see Grundy becoming an excellent tap ruckman who adds a significant dimension to the midfield with his running ability and quick reflexes. At best I can see him developing into an equally dangerous forward who is a formidable contested mark and someone who can score from outside 50. This will take time however, and this facet of his game should be seen as a work in progress.
Given our threadbare ruck stocks, the case for Grundy grows even stronger, he's already 100kg and will be ready to play at some stage next year. If we overlook him with pick 9, we will have our work cut out in trying to find suitable replacements for Graham and Browne.
Not sure where this talk of a reach for Brown comes from. He went right around the mark expected in the phantoms released close to the night that have any intel.
If you can find me a draft that had Brown ahead of Johnson & Goater I would be interested to have a look.
Easily the most accurate of draft predictors - Twomey had him at pick 18. Johnson and Goater irrelevent to the argument of supposedly "reaching" for Brown.
www.afl.com.au
Most other early phantoms are largely inaccurate guides that have a healthy dose of group think that need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers
Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call
www.afl.com.au
Most other early phantoms are largely inaccurate guides that have a healthy dose of group think that need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Who we overlook is absolutely relevant, mid vs flanker, taking a flanker is a high risk approach, I would never do it unless there was an ironclad case, Hurn or Rich quality kicking for instance.Easily the most accurate of draft predictors - Twomey had him at pick 18. Johnson and Goater irrelevent to the argument of supposedly "reaching" for Brown.
Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers
Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call
Most other early phantoms are largely inaccurate guides that have a healthy dose of group think that need to be taken with a grain of salt.
That is comparing players. Nothing to do with reaching i.e. taking a player well above where most other clubs ranked him. Which was not the case with Brown.
I reckon there are two types of reach @Leysy Days.
One, where a player consistently ranked in a lower region of the draft bolts up the order and could be considered a speculative pick.
The other, where a club reaches for a player who doesn't meet an obvious need.
We're in the latter camp with Brown.
Off the half back flank we can reasonably play Short, Baker, Stack, Rioli, Vlastuin, Edwards, Mansell or even Broad or Grimes. We even drafted Banks, who plays that role.
Getting yet another flanker at 17 looks every bit a reach in that context. Especially when we have obvious needs elsewhere.
He must be something special!
fair points and must admit I've seen nothing beyond his highlights & write-ups to support making those comparisons. They're just a few that sprang to mind to demonstrate that if his one-wood is intercept marking, which apparently it is, then he adds something of great value in the modern game. Not just rebound but reading the play and cutting off attacks aerially. And he has a great mentor in Vlastuin for that.
Doesn't strike me as a shrinking violet either so I wouldn't be surprised if his contested work is decent in time.. hopefully better than someone like Pittard anyway!
Not necessarily, I usually source my flankers from elsewhere in the draft, I was calling for Byrne-Jones in third round and he's now an All-Australian defender. Comparable to Vlastuin but given I used pick 9 on Grundy I think I've played the numbers game reasonably well. Here's my top 20 picks since 2006.
2006. Riewoldt (13)
2007 Cotchin (2), Rance (18)
2008 Statue of Vickery (8)
2009 Dusty (3) Griffiths (18)
2010 Darling (6)
2011 Ellis (15)
2012 Grundy (9)
2013 Lewis Taylor (11)
2014 Weller (12)
2015 Hibberd (12)
2017 Higgins (17), Balta (20)
2018 Collier-Dawkins (18)
That's seven talls, one bust in Griffiths & one semi bust in Vickery but that pick yielded Bolton so no harm done. Notice the absence of flankers? Out of 15 picks that's nearly 50% that were spent on talls, we tip over that mark if you include Buddy in 2004 & Mitch Clark in 2005 but given I joined here in 2006 I'll stick to all the documented picks.
As a side note, I picked Greg Clark as a rookie way back in 2014, just goes to show these picks can come through a few years down the track.
And I've just found another royal flush going over my notes.
Pick 3 - Stephen Hill (218 games)
Pick 21 - Haydn Ballantyne (171 games)
Pick 24 - Nick Suban (156 games)
Pick 37 - Zach Clarke (110 games)
Pick 53 - Michael Walters (181 games)
Pick 19 Rookie - Matt De Boer (211 games)
Pick 48 Rookie - Clancee Pearce (100 games)
Pick 74 Rookie - Greg Broughtan (110 games)
Pretty impressive, not sure anything comes close just on sheer number of 100 gamers. That's a double royal flush.
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Spot on Leysy. The reach thinking comes from many amateur supporters who don't understand how high he was ranked by other clubs. Sydney were devastated to miss out on him.Easily the most accurate of draft predictors - Twomey had him at pick 18. Johnson and Goater irrelevent to the argument of supposedly "reaching" for Brown.
Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers
Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call
Most other early phantoms are largely inaccurate guides that have a healthy dose of group think that need to be taken with a grain of salt.
A few other players considered 1st round reaches by the internet were: Cripps at 13, The Bont at 4, Will Powell at 19, Tom Doedee at 17 and Zak Jones at 15. All going ok
Not sure if this is the right area but here's the podcast which just dropped - the Talking Tigers podcast with Matt Clarke on the draft
www.richmondfc.com.au
Talking Tigers: Post-Draft special
Richmond’s national recruiting manager Matt Clarke is a special guest on the final episode for 2021 of Talking Tigers.
Agree guys. From what I've read with the more learned posters on BF, and my own thoughts, reckon he's a very good player - and not a reach. Twomey had him being picked up at around the spot!
