A Preseason Preview - Part 13 of 16 - Geelong

[pahoffm]

The Youth policy works, but you have to wait - The Cattery

The Geelong list fills you full with a breath of fresh air. Not only is it seemingly complete but 77% of its list still hasn't hit the prime zone. This usually indicates that they're still at 10 or 11 o'clock on the window of opportunity, and to be in the top 4 at the same time bodes a great future. Mark Thompson has seen all these boys grow up, and knows all their strengths and weaknesses. His assistants are Brendan McCartney, who spent some time with us in the late 90s; Ken Hinkley, a Geelong stalwart; Andy Lovell, who's had some success coaching in the WAFL; and Leigh Tudor, who's had some coaching success at both Calder and the Jets, (and if he could get the Jets list into the TAC finals last year he'd have to be good.)

The Geelong list has 44 players, of which 5 are new and 4 are rookies. Compare that to our 40 players, 10 new and 2 rookies. But remember that 5-6 years ago the Catters were in our situation. The list is as follows:

King 202 102 26
Ottens 202 105 25 New
Blake 199 96 19
Playfair 198 99 22
Chambers 197 99 23
McCarthy 197 102 23
Lonergan 197 91 21
Egan 196 100 21 New
Mooney 194 95 25
AblettN 194 95 19 New
Kingsley 193 94 26
Spencer 193 94 20
Harley 192 94 26
Scarlett 192 94 26
Mackie 192 83 20
Corey 190 86 23
Gardiner 190 87 22
Garth 190 93 19 Rookie
Milburn 189 90 28
Haynes 189 94 24
Ling 189 94 24
JohnsonS 189 86 21
Buckland 189 79 20 Rookie
Rooke 189 86 19
Rahilly 187 84 26
Enright 186 91 23
Bartel 186 85 21
Sanderson 185 90 31
Hunt 185 100 23
Koulouriotis 184 90 23
Batchelor 184 68 19 Rookie
Prismall 184 81 18 New
Riccardi 183 94 32
Kelly 183 86 21
AblettG 182 87 21
Slade 182 83 21
Tenace 182 84 19
Thurley 181 76 23
Callan 181 82 21
Wojcinski 180 81 24
Sheringham 180 77 18 Rookie
JohnsonD 179 87 23
Chapman 179 82 23
Byrnes 174 73 21 New

It's a tall list, strong and young. Just the way a coach would want.
The spread of the players are:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Chapman 23, D Johnson 23
Junior: Byrnes 21

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Riccardi 32
Prime: 0
Development: Wojcinski 24, Koulouriotis 23, Thurley 23
Junior: Kelly 21, G Ablett 21, Slade 21, Callan 21, Batchelor 19, Tenace 19, Prismall 18, Sheringham 18

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Sanderson 31, Milburn 28
Prime: Rahilly 26
Development: Haynes 24, Ling 24, Enright 23, Hunt 23
Junior: S Johnson 21, Bartel 21, Buckland 20, Rooke 19

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: 0
Prime: Kingsley 26, Harley 26, Scarlett 26, Mooney 25
Development: Corey 23, Gardiner 22
Junior: Mackie 20, Spencer 20, N Ablett 19, Garth 19

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Chambers 23, McCarthy 23, Playfair 22
Junior: Lonergan 21, Egan 21, Blake 19

200+ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: King 26, Ottens 25
Development: 0
Junior: 0

There's not much more that can be said about the spread that hasn't been said before. To have so many players that have yet to hit the prime zone and still be in the top 4 is a coach's dream.
The postional depth of the Cats is as follows:

B: Wojcinski 24 Scarlett 26 Sanderson 31
JohnsonD 23 Egan 21 Hunt 23
Slade 21

HB: Rahilly 26 Mooney 25 Harley 24
Enright 23 Spencer 20 Playfair 22
Callan 21                        Rooke 19

C: Ling 24 Bartel 21 Riccardi 32
Mackie 20 Kelly 21 Gardiner 22
Buckland 20 Prismall 18 Batchelor 19

HF: Haynes 24 Ottens 25 JohnsonS 21
Thurley 23 McCarthy 23 Tenace 19
                Lonergan 21

F: AblettN 19 Kingsley 26 AblettG 21
Garth 19

R: King 26 Milburn 28 Chapman 23
Chambers 23 Corey 23 Byrnes 21
Blake 19 Koulouriotis 23 Sheringham 18

If you had to be picky CHB and the centre are the 2 weaknesses of the Geelong side. Cameron Mooney appears to have found some consistancy last year at CHB. (Edit: Moloney has been a big loss for the Cats. Few sides can afford to lose a centreman. Their loss is Melbourne's gain. ) The centre can be shared by Kelly returning from a broken leg this year and the up and coming Bartel. Also with King's susceptibility to leg injuries, don't be surprised if the big "O" ends up in the ruck.

Conclusion:
The major credit to this side is that it didn't have to rely on consecutive seasons as awooden-spooner, unlike another side, to build its list. It has almost been built up from local boys around Geelong and country Victoria. Again, credit to the them.
This side is probably in the best position it has been since 1963. Throughout the 70s, 80s and 90s there were always holes or gaps in the Geelong side. This is a more complete list. Thompson with this list has 4 to 5 years to win a premiership, maybe more than one. Considering the wait, and his patience, he deserves it. They may or may not win one this year, but they should win one in the next 3 years.

 

[1965]

200+ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: King 26, Ottens 25
Development: 0
Junior: 0

Is this done purely on age groupings?

With Ottens suspect back and lack of heart, I would have said he is in the twighlight of his career. Not in his Prime.

 

[mb64]

Geelong is the side that I believe could take a slip.Despite the fact they have a good list I see a few problems.King is injury prone & up forward Ottens is unreliable & also injury prone,Kingsley is unreliable & often inaccurate & I believe they will miss Ben Graham more than they think.Mooney is hard at it but no superstar.They have a reasonably solid defence lead by Scarlett & a good midfield & also Ablett Jnr is a very good player.Prediction 6th-10th.

 

[Daigoro]

great stuff Phantom as usual. One comment: I think they are OK at CHB with Harley and Mooney and OK in the centre as well. Their weakness in my view is CHF and FF where they have to rely on Kingsley and the Big Donut which is not a good position to be in in any man's language.

 

[dcstar]

.....
King 202 102 26
Ottens 202 105 25 New
.....

Interesting that at 105Kg Simmonds is rated by some at Richmond as "massive", but I don't recall too many people describing Ottens in that way in the last year or so........

Perhaps those pads on the legs do make a difference?

 

[TT33]

I think Moloney is a big loss for them, he is hard at it & quite skilfull. I know a lot of demon supporters who are rapt with that aquisition.

 

[pahoffm]

great stuff Phantom as usual. One comment: I think they are OK at CHB with Harley and Mooney and OK in the centre as well. Their weakness in my view is CHF and FF where they have to rely on Kingsley and the Big Donut which is not a good position to be in in any man's language.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the other Ablett, young Nathan, at 194, 94 being a key part of the forward line by season's end.

.....
King    202    102    26   
Ottens    202    105    25    New
.....

Interesting that at 105Kg Simmonds is rated by some at Richmond as "massive", but I don't recall too many people describing Ottens in that way in the last year or so........

Perhaps those pads on the legs do make a difference?

I also noticed that the big "O" grew a cm. between his trip from Tigerland to the Cattery. He was 201cm with us. Must be less gravity in Geelong.

I think Moloney is a big loss for them, he is hard at it & quite skilfull. I know a lot of demon supporters who are rapt with that aquisition.

Agree in a big way. I thought about that when doing the Melbourne preview, then forgot to mention it here.

 

[jb03]

Way too early to make a call on Nathan Ablett. Modewarre thirds??

HAving siad that, they shoudl be top 4 despite others thinking they will slide.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

Another good preview Phanto.
IMO they have enough talent to be in the top 4 even though they lose there 1st rnd match ;D

 

[mb64]

Way too early to make a call on Nathan Ablett. Modewarre thirds??

HAving siad that, they shoudl be top 4 despite others thinking they will slide.

Thanks for your imformative report on Geelong JB.You've convinced me they will finish top 4.

 

[tiger in the night]

The way that the Cats have re-built their list is a salient lesson to other clubs wanting to building long-term sustainable success. The local and country regions have been incredibly profitable for them and they have put amazing faith in recruiting country lads. Good on them.

My concern for the Tiges is that unlike the Cats we have begun our rebuilding with mids and smalls. Fair enough - they were the best on offer so you take them. But if you look at the ages of the Cat list you will see that the KPP's - King, Scarlett, Harley, Kingsley are all two years older than the batch of mids that have been key to their revival - Ling, Corey, Bartel etc. This is the way a list should be re-built given that KPP's take longer to mature.

I just hope that in 4 years time we don't have a great midfield but an immatrure bunch of KPP's.

 

[Tubytiger]

Cats - as Jack Dyer would say a good average side. In the eight with good form and luck with injury. No chance for a premiership imo. They are lacking in the forward line in kicking a winning score and their backline despite some might say can be a bit iffy against strong big running players.

 

[FightingFury]

Not convinced either way with Geelong.I give them credit for taking the hard road (even if their finances may have dictated it) and developing their list from the foundations up.
A fantastic backline,an above average midfield and an unconvincing forward line....hmmmm *scratch of head*
A lot of 'ifs' IMO.
Kingsley is overrated,Ottens must stand up to expectation,Nathan Ablett is a risk,albeit one worth taking, countered with bundles of youthful exhuberance and a bit of youthful expierience.
Top 5 but not a flag threat THIS year.

 

[cmarkidis]

I don't know which way to go with Geelong. Logic says they should at least consolidate their position from last year, but for some reason I have a nagging doubt about them. Any finish between 2 - 12 wouldn't suprise.

 

[jb03]

I don't know which way to go with Geelong. Logic says they should at least consolidate their position from last year, but for some reason I have a nagging doubt about them. Any finish between 2 - 12 wouldn't suprise.

I think you've just abut covered it t12. ;D IN addition they're a chance to win the flag or perhaps finish near the bottom, say 13-16. ;D

 

[CHF]

Geelong has a good structure to their list with the players coming into their best years together. I think the observation about the way the list has developed over the last few seasons with the development of the KPP's and then the smaller players is a good one and one that Melbourne seems to have adopted as well.

I feel you may have over rated them a little Phantom, but with home games at the fleapit they might well be a solid top 4 competitior.

I would rate them 4 to 8. with their weakness being forward of the centre.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Love your work, Phantom.

The Catters have two major queries over their prospects for 2005.

The first and obvious one is their lack of tall forwards.

They currently have none. Kingsley is a goalsneak who simply can't mark over his head against an AFL class keyback. Mooney is almost certainly past another try forward and will be used back or around the ground. Kingsley, for mine, is their barometer. If he's starting as a key forward, they can't win a grand final. Maybe at #3 forward but I have my doubts even then. Not good enough.

A lot of pressure may be put on Nathan Ablett if he shows anything this year but I agree with Phantom. He could well be the key to their future.

Brad Ottens may also provide a part of the solution. Perhaps under Mark Thompson's strict standards, he will thrive and learn to play in front when forward. Perhaps not. IMO Donut, sans broken ankle, is nearly the best inside ruckman in the caper. Steven King deserves some easy time and is a big strong man. He can give them a primary marking target deep in the forward line while Otto is skipping about up the park. This takes the heat off young Ablett et al and provides opportunities for their first class crumbers. Of course there is the chance that Donut will learn from King and learn to do the job himself.

Geelong will be improved by the departure of Ben Graham, mostly.

Steve Johnson's shoulder injury is a worry. I was thinking he could make a fine #3 forward as he can (could) take a very nice grab and was a genuine crumbing forward. The shoulder may impact his marking. (One was enough to hurt Carey's capabilities.) He was played up the ground for much of 2004 after he overcame his ankle. They don't need many more smalls but need blokes who can mark. One more thing about Johnson. He was far too conscious of his own health during games in 04. I wonder if the shoulder was dislocating. Let's hope he's a bit less timid this year.

G.Ablett will have to play forward for the sake of getting some talent around the goals but his career may be better served by playing him in the midfield- in terms of development and injuries. I'm sure he'd benefit from some stright line running during a game.

P.Riccardi is a risk at his age and fitness. But he can mark on the lead and convert. He has class and he gives them another crucial target when fit.

Haynes should have some consistency by his age. I'm beginning to worry about him. Quick with safe hands when on the lead, he can't jump but can be a very good kick. Never seen him beat a quality oponenent. He may not be good enough.

Mackie's a lightweight and a hairdo but shows some talent. Too health conscious most of the time. Struggled when manned up last year. 3rd year. Maybe.

Kane Tenace, in his second year, may afford them some extra pace around the arc. This would be handy.

There has been no mention of Scarlett playing chf this year. A logical consideration. So I guess it aint on the aganda. Maybe 2006.

McCarthy and Chambers are a long way short of premiership KPPs IMO and I would have traded at least one of them. Playfair is the best additional tall option thay have but is no star. Could quite conceivably go kickless against a class key back but the youngster may still be on the way up. Can't remember Lonergan. Anyone who can? I'm very intersted in Spencer's preseason form. Will watch.

Chapman will still change forward even if given more time on the ball. Very handy crumber. Shannon Byrnes may get some second year blues but looked impressive at times in 04 and may be ready this season.

I've seen Thompson clear out CHF to make room for midfielders and flankers to run into the hole. Kelly did it often in 2003. May be asked to do it again at times. Haynes leads out to the arc from deep or wide when he can get clear. He was tried there early in his cat career but like all undersized kpp's was found wantin for height when he couldn't compendsate with class. A CHF would be very nice. Ling could pinch hit here if the other onballers can cover him. For a bloke who can't kick his use when driving the ball inside 50 is uncanny. Graham played the position well a couple of times (maybe 2, maybe 1) and it's amazing how much better they looked.

CHF is a big worry. Otto probably their only short term hope.

If it all went horribly right-

HF K.Tenace B.Ottens P.Chapman
FF S.Johnson N.Ablett G.Ablett

Possibly-

HF G.Ablett B.Ottens S.Johnson
FF N.Ablett S.King P.Chapman

That gives them backup in P.Riccardi, K.Tenace, Byrnes, [Bartlel, Kelly, Ling changing and maybe Wojczinski] K.Kingsley at times.
Playfair, maybe Spencer, ...and if he can develop as a ruck Chambers there and Otto and King to play forward in bursts. Blake to change ruck?

ATM Geelong has a flexible forward setup which offers many tactical opportunities but lacks a quality tall and a handy tall. Because of their game style- tight, tough, accountable, inside- they, like their opponents find it rare to get an easy kick on the forward line or a cheap goal. That puts pressure on their tall forwards. Theirs currently aren't good enough to handle such pressure.

My second worry about the cats is the age/maturity of some of their midfielders. Kelly and Bartel, who are a pair of the most exciting young midfielders in the comp. If they improve again this year, look out. But either could go backwards after a niggling injury and the closer attention in 2005. It's quite possible. Almost an even money chance. It would be a natural part of their development and could even augur well for a fine 2006. They're young and they're not robots. Inconsistency is still perfectly understandable. After Judd and maybe Wells, I'd have thought Bartel was the outstanding young midfielder of 2004 and there was next to othing between him and Kelly.

I have absolutely no concerns about the loss of Moloney as I believe he's a cut below the top five or six midfielders at the cattery ATM, especially Bartel and Kelly. It's no accident that Geelong chose to sacrifice him.

My third worry is about the depth.

Got worries about Hunt. Nice kick. Doesn't win many at all. Can he actually get one by himself? He's hard enough but just can't find the ball. Everybody under him is subpar. Rooke is probably up to it but Rahilly, D.Johnson, Slade, Koulouriotis, maybe Thurley look fringe players in ANY side.

I give them a genuine premiership chance if they can manufacture some tall forward targets and their young midfielders continue to improve. If they can't find the talls, second to fourth.

 

[tote]

Like many here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finish anywhere between 4-10.

Best palyers are all down back - probably the best defence in the comp - midfield uses the ball really well but are on the slow side and forward line struggles.

Having said that they are a very even side - as Phantom aludes to - in fact one might say unspectacular apart from the occassional brilliance of GAjr.

Not sure they have the attacking framework required to go all the way in today's football and if injury (or dare i say it the tribunal) disrupts their strength down back - the season could be over.

I have them finishing 6th.