AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
15,296
11,156
Okay, forget the ratchet. The H2H odds are too juicy. Last night they had us $1.61 to beat Melbourne - now they have us $1.68??!! Is Dusty secretly injured? That equates to a 59.5% chance we'll win, according to the bookies. There must be a few stockbrokers getting ahead of themselves and selling us short, because I reckon we're a better than 80% chance. We should be $1.25. So, get all your money, go buy a wheelbarrow, and put the rest on the Tigs to win, straight out. $1.68? Is it our birthday?

gets you $7.6 for the flag
 

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
24,536
3,809
Okay, forget the ratchet. The H2H odds are too juicy. Last night they had us $1.61 to beat Melbourne - now they have us $1.68??!! Is Dusty secretly injured? That equates to a 59.5% chance we'll win, according to the bookies. There must be a few stockbrokers getting ahead of themselves and selling us short, because I reckon we're a better than 80% chance. We should be $1.25. So, get all your money, go buy a wheelbarrow, and put the rest on the Tigs to win, straight out. $1.68? Is it our birthday?
I actually put $20 on Melbourne last week at $2.69. I’m obviously not hoping they’ll win but I felt $2.69 for the top team in a 2 horse race was too good to pass. I think Melbourne is this years “come from nowhere” team.
 

tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
14,912
6,240
I actually put $20 on Melbourne last week at $2.69. I’m obviously not hoping they’ll win but I felt $2.69 for the top team in a 2 horse race was too good to pass. I think Melbourne is this years “come from nowhere” team.
Thats a good bet in a 2 horse race, couple it up with freo to make the 8 paying $3.20.
 
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spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
13,535
6,328
Melbourne
I actually put $20 on Melbourne last week at $2.69. I’m obviously not hoping they’ll win but I felt $2.69 for the top team in a 2 horse race was too good to pass. I think Melbourne is this years “come from nowhere” team.
Ah, well. It's only 20 bucks, Tim.
 
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spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
13,535
6,328
Melbourne
Looking at the Rising Star market, I see no value in any of the top picks. Gulden $4 favourite? Waaay too short.

I've specked Lachie Manchild Jones, who will be a regular in a top-4 side, at $15, Tiger Tom Green to get leather poisoning at $17, the next great key forward, my man Mitch Georgiades at $19, and just a dash on Luke Jackson at $31.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
15,296
11,156
I see value in the Richmond Brisbane GF quinella at 25's

other than playing us twice,

they seem to have a really soft draw.

beating Richmond in a Q final and morally beating Geelong at Sardinia is good form

and a fit Daniher is the biggest addition in the comp.

I reckon Brisbane have their head on their chest at the right stage.
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,738
3,573
Melbourne
Looking at the Rising Star market, I see no value in any of the top picks. Gulden $4 favourite? Waaay too short.

I've specked Lachie Manchild Jones, who will be a regular in a top-4 side, at $15, Tiger Tom Green to get leather poisoning at $17, the next great key forward, my man Mitch Georgiades at $19, and just a dash on Luke Jackson at $31.
Bad timing. Jones has done an ankle and will miss a month.
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
6,375
3,474
I see value in the Richmond Brisbane GF quinella at 25's

other than playing us twice,

they seem to have a really soft draw.

beating Richmond in a Q final and morally beating Geelong at Sardinia is good form

and a fit Daniher is the biggest addition in the comp.

I reckon Brisbane have their head on their chest at the right stage.
Not enough A-graders in their lineup for me although the top 4 race appears pretty open. Will be surprised if Daniher gets through a season.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
15,296
11,156
Not enough A-graders in their lineup for me although the top 4 race appears pretty open. Will be surprised if Daniher gets through a season.

I dunno.

Andrews Zorko Neale Daniher Cameron are all A-Graders IMO

Rich and McLuggage B+

5 or 6 is pretty standard if your contending for 2nd

take last years runner up for example: Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie, Hawkins, Stewart by popular consensus would be A graders. Add Cameron = 6

Port? they rolling with 4: Boak, Gray, Wines, Butters

Dogs have 6 by my count

WC are the only side in our ball park I reckon with 9

Tigers I have at 14

which is why we are very close to invincible in September

back on Brisbane, their H&A form over the last 3 years reads 022

finals reads X63

Its pretty good form to add Daniher to, and he's fit as a trout.
 
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MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
6,375
3,474
I dunno.

Andrews Zorko Neale Daniher Cameron are all A-Graders IMO

Rich and McLuggage B+

5 or 6 is pretty standard if your contending for 2nd

take last years runner up for example: Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie, Hawkins, Stewart by popular consensus would be A graders. Add Cameron = 6

Port? they rolling with 4: Boak, Gray, Wines, Butters

Dogs have 6 by my count

WC are the only side in our ball park I reckon with 9

Tigers I have at 14

which is why we are very close to invincible in September

back on Brisbane, their H&A form over the last 3 years reads 022

finals reads X63

Its pretty good form to add Daniher to
It's an interesting one. I suppose it depends on how you come up with a rating system.

Personally I don't think Guthrie and Stewart are or have ever been A graders.

I don't think Dogs have 6 A graders. nor West Coast 9 nor tigers 14 (we have 22). There are 400 odd players on the field every weekend and I'd say 15%-20% are A grade. That's 60-80. Maybe 4 a team on average.? Perhaps 5?

Neale - yes
Zorko - I think is past the A grade part of his career. And as a leader he is too distracted at times just being a knob. Does he inspire?
Cameron - is he consistent enough to deserve an A grade rating? At his best yes but he's prone to go missing. Tough position though.
Daniher - if remains fit he is but has a history of injury
Andrews - yes but its a limited field of A grade key defenders. I'd rather Moore/Balta. Is he offensive enough?
Rich - not sold on his defensive work but he's very good offensively.
McLuggage - I've always thought his rep exceeded his performance but has started the year well

If the above players can find their best and Daniher plays a full year then they can be top 4. But I don't think that will happen. They had a perfect opportunity last year and blew it.
 
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spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
13,535
6,328
Melbourne
Bad timing. Jones has done an ankle and will miss a month.
The dumb *smile* at bet365 are asleep at the wheel and let me cash out for the full amount.

I reserve the right to get back on if he returns in time, but his odds won't get any shorter in the meantime.
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
28,738
3,573
Melbourne
The dumb *smile* at bet365 are asleep at the wheel and let me cash out for the full amount.

I reserve the right to get back on if he returns in time, but his odds won't get any shorter in the meantime.
Ha ha that's quality.
 

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
24,536
3,809
Okay, forget the ratchet. The H2H odds are too juicy. Last night they had us $1.61 to beat Melbourne - now they have us $1.68??!! Is Dusty secretly injured? That equates to a 59.5% chance we'll win, according to the bookies. There must be a few stockbrokers getting ahead of themselves and selling us short, because I reckon we're a better than 80% chance. We should be $1.25. So, get all your money, go buy a wheelbarrow, and put the rest on the Tigs to win, straight out. $1.68? Is it our birthday?
Geez Spooker, JB was right, Leysy like punting. :cool:
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
15,296
11,156
When do we back the Tiges for the flag?

Im more pissed off with the bookies than I am with MFC right now.

3:3 with the old Richmond May injury list, red hot dogs next week

and the *smile* have us as $5 favourites.

Im keeping my powder dry JB - our next month is tough

Dogs, hot Cats, Lions on the Gabba, Giants

we could realistically be 4:6 (I think we'll be 5:5)

then Dion, Lambo, Love Machine and Stackman come back in,

we take the 10's

and finish 4th on 15:7

having said all that, I backed Kolding for a place today :cool:
 
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