AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

TigerForce

Tiger Legend
Apr 26, 2004
52,226
3,395
I thought the same until I looked at their side and count 8 players ive never heard of.

think they're finally rebuilding?
True, but scary part is what they did to beat the Bummers last week and what the Swans have got now with unknown kids. Just hope we've done our homework on them.
 
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Ridley

Tiger Legend
Jul 21, 2003
14,387
8,327
Port won't be $8 after today. Should really be favourites.

Georgiadis/Alir add something. Even Fantasia if he gets a good run with injury. Their young guys will be better.
If you based it on early season form Port would definitely be favourites. They are March champions. Conversely we’d be 7th-8th favourites as we struggle early doors.

But the bookies know we are the stuff when it really matters. But yes Port is our obvious main threat.
 
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MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
7,318
4,497
If you based it on early season form Port would definitely be favourites. They are March champions. Conversely we’d be 7th-8th favourites as we struggle early doors.

But the bookies know we are the stuff when it really matters. But yes Port is our obvious main threat.
Port finished top last year? And added to their depth in the off-season? And have a well balanced side of youth and experience? And we beat them by a goal in a Prelim?

I'm surprised how so many think they aren't that good. The Bulldogs aren't that good. Geelong aren't that good. Port are very good.
 

Ridley

Tiger Legend
Jul 21, 2003
14,387
8,327
Port finished top last year? And added to their depth in the off-season? And have a well balanced side of youth and experience? And we beat them by a goal in a Prelim?

I'm surprised how so many think they aren't that good. The Bulldogs aren't that good. Geelong aren't that good. Port are very good.
No I think they’re pretty good and the main danger to us. Along with Brisbane they had all the favours last year and were entitled to at least make the GF. But I think they’ve improved. However if we’re at our best we’ll beat them; especially at the G.

But our best is in September. Can they hold their form all year? That is the challenge for them.
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
7,318
4,497
Mentioned it elsewhere but Dees $2.10 to beat GWS is surely overs
Somebody heard you. Dees about 1.70 now. Hope you got the overs.

Reckon Cats at 1.30 are essentially a multi odds boost this week against the hawks.

And think the Lions are value at 2.10 against the Pies.
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
29,453
4,562
Melbourne
Somebody heard you. Dees about 1.70 now. Hope you got the overs.

Reckon Cats at 1.30 are essentially a multi odds boost this week against the hawks.

And think the Lions are value at 2.10 against the Pies.
Cool. I took the $2.10 at quarter time of the Freo game yesterday. Not sure about Brissie Pies.
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
7,318
4,497
I reckon Freo are over the odds against the blues. Probably too good to be true the blues starting 0-3 but Freo have some decent kids. Think they are value at the line.
 
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Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
18,734
3,553
Tel Aviv
I reckon Freo are over the odds against the blues. Probably too good to be true the blues starting 0-3 but Freo have some decent kids. Think they are value at the line.

You ever wonder about the term "over the odds" and its conflicting use ? Not saying you are using it incorrectly, but I find its contradictory use interesting. For example, if someone pays too much for a house they are said to have paid "over the odds" i..e. suggesting that they didnt get value. But conversely, if Freo are "over the odds" v Carlton they are considered good value. Same in horse racing. The value term is "over the odds."

I don't think think Australians know how to use the term properly. I think in the UK the term "over the odds" almost always means lack of value. It certainly cant mean both like its applied here in Australia. Anyway, just sayin...
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
7,318
4,497
Perhaps I should be saying they are overs meaning the price is over what I think is about a right/fair price.

I suppose over the odds means the number is too high. In Freo's case they represent value because they are over the odds (IMO of course).

FWIW I've tried being a bookie on betfair and failed. And failed at punting in general. Reality is Carlton are locks.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
16,343
13,247
I think the bookies have our game today right out of whack.

$1.17 us $5 swans

Id rate it $1.5 to $2.5
 

spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
14,577
8,356
Melbourne
Any bets you have today should be all-upped into the Saints to beat Essendon. Should be $1.01, in fact I wouldn't even take bets if I were a bookie. Free money. $1.30 with some. The line's only 22.5. Essendon has 13 players with fewer than 50 games. Giddyup!
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
16,343
13,247
tigers straight out to $5.

I think port will beat us next week,

and we'll be $6.

Its like the old gold top milk.
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
29,453
4,562
Melbourne
Any bets you have today should be all-upped into the Saints to beat Essendon. Should be $1.01, in fact I wouldn't even take bets if I were a bookie. Free money. $1.30 with some. The line's only 22.5. Essendon has 13 players with fewer than 50 games. Giddyup!
Jeepers spook, that is leysy like
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
16,343
13,247
what is the best strategy for backing the tigers this year I hear asked?

IMO, backing us to win the flag. betting for us to finish top 4 has no value at the price, plus we will win at least make the GF if we finish top 4 anyway. Theres no value in the quinellas anymore, so I just bet to win the flag, leaving enough room to lay a bit in a prelim and GF

At this stage, I'll likely have half my stake on us on Thursday April 29,

the day before we reveal our hand against the dogs.

the bookies are very, very wary of us this year.

$6 is the best we can expect at this stage I think.

the trouble this year, is all the early contenders won't trouble us in September and the bookies know it. Plus Swans and Dees fans dont punt. imagine coping Swans or Dees in a prelim? Its shaping up to be like 2020 IMO, where we are twice as good as 2nd best (port, dogs, wc at this stage)

I'll keep my other half stake up my sleeve in the event of a couple of losses or injuries mid season and the possibility of getting $8 or $10,

and so an average price of $7 or $8.

worst (best) case scenario and we win every game after the dogs, we'll still get $3 in July and an average price $4.5,

which was the preseason quote.
 
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Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
18,734
3,553
Tel Aviv
What's the weather in Perth gonna be like tonight ? 21 points is the line. Trying to decide if WCE can cover that.
 

spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
14,577
8,356
Melbourne
Okay, forget the ratchet. The H2H odds are too juicy. Last night they had us $1.61 to beat Melbourne - now they have us $1.68??!! Is Dusty secretly injured? That equates to a 59.5% chance we'll win, according to the bookies. There must be a few stockbrokers getting ahead of themselves and selling us short, because I reckon we're a better than 80% chance. We should be $1.25. So, get all your money, go buy a wheelbarrow, and put the rest on the Tigs to win, straight out. $1.68? Is it our birthday?
 
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