AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

Dyer'ere

Licensed to kazoo
Sep 21, 2004
17,212
1,901
Return of Cynicism said:
I cant believe the Bulldogs havent started favourites, Essendon havent showed nothing and are nothing.

Agree RoC. Footscray... and Richmond overs. Roger, impact, ins and outs critical.

I'm a bit off the Brownlow form, Leysy but Crawf makes plenty of appeal at the big price. Like your thinking.
 

Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
20,123
5,369
Tel Aviv
I always look at the ins and outs before making a bet and also the weather.

Collingwood look the value bet to me at this stage. Going back to the MCG after a big win and playing against a side that is coming off a long road trip. Unlike Billy Connoly last week, Malthouse will have an effective plan to combat Williams.
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,221
851
Hmmmmmm..........like your thinking there Red,

The pies will close the hawks down & get men back,

currently $2.40, I've got a feeling they might drift a bit b4 bounce down, The hawks are the media's darling at the moment & if they do get out to say $2.60 it would be worth a good go.... :eek:
 

Dyer'ere

Licensed to kazoo
Sep 21, 2004
17,212
1,901
The Hawks off the Perth trip.

There is definitely something in the hoodoo. (Sandy track, spongey cooch grass and bigger park?) Players take 45 min or so to get going the next game. Full of lactic? 50% of teams are slow starters next game the last time I did the numbers.

Are coaches learning how to combat it? Heavy week on the training track to clear the lactic?

Yeah, I'm lukewarm about the pies. If I get on the sauce, I'll back em. ;D
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,221
851
My take on this Perth trip thingy is its all a load of hogwash,

Not denying that teams get beat when coming back from Perth, but the reason they do is not physical but all in they're head....

If your told all week your gunna be tired come matchday, if the coaching staff change all your training drills insinuating that your not gunna have your spring in your step......................well guess what I reckon the players believe it & come out & play like that.

I know its not as physical nor as exhausting, but European soccer players fly all round the place playing matches during the week, & front up for there weekend league match no probs at all.

that my theory on things anyhow..... :p
 

evo

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2003
22,192
51
Brisbane are in alot of trouble.I'd take the spread on the roos going close.

Norm short has Brisbane -30.5.

Good bet.
 

Dyer'ere

Licensed to kazoo
Sep 21, 2004
17,212
1,901
Leysy, my take on the hoodoo is based on surveys of the form of returning teams 2003 and 2004. 33% aberrant final result*. 50% slow start from memory. Preliminary results but CBF spending a fortnight on the issue. The preliminary results bear out the punting students (not the press reports- irrelevent).

Footy punters were laying sides returning from Perth long before it made the press. The results were on the board long before publicity or mindset could be a factor in them. I'm dismissive of most voodoo or psychological excuses. The Perth hoodoo has legs. Heavy legs. Lactic acid.

The key to the problem may be in the way coaches train their teams after the Perth trip. Typicaly teams have been given a light week on the track. Exactly the opposite to the best way of cleaning out the lactic as I understand it. As fitness staff come to recognise and formulate solutions to the problem it will diminish or disappear. On 2004 it has not been remedied. Will check 2005 at R11.

*Why aberrant results? If Footrscray came back from Perth and got pumped by Brisbane by 12 goals that's not an ABERRANT result. It's to be expected. But if Brisbane come back from Perth and got beat by Footscray. That sure is. Loss stats are irrelevent. Only aberrant results count.
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,221
851
Hmmmm.........interesting 17,

too many big words for Leysy to decifer...........will have to get the bifocles out & get back to ya :help
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,221
851
Dyer'ere said:
Leysy, my take on the hoodoo is based on surveys of the form of returning teams 2003 and 2004. 33% aberrant final result*. 50% slow start from memory. Preliminary results but CBF spending a fortnight on the issue. The preliminary results bear out the punting students (not the press reports- irrelevent).

Footy punters were laying sides returning from Perth long before it made the press. The results were on the board long before publicity or mindset could be a factor in them. I'm dismissive of most voodoo or psychological excuses. The Perth hoodoo has legs. Heavy legs. Lactic acid.

The key to the problem may be in the way coaches train their teams after the Perth trip. Typicaly teams have been given a light week on the track. Exactly the opposite to the best way of cleaning out the lactic as I understand it. As fitness staff come to recognise and formulate solutions to the problem it will diminish or disappear. On 2004 it has not been remedied. Will check 2005 at R11.

*Why aberrant results? If Footrscray came back from Perth and got pumped by Brisbane by 12 goals that's not an ABERRANT result. It's to be expected. But if Brisbane come back from Perth and got beat by Footscray. That sure is. Loss stats are irrelevent. Only aberrant results count.

seriously there 17 it looks like you've put some serious study into the Perth factor.

One thing that does make sense is the training routine after the trip & how to get over lactic buildup, it will be interesting to see your analysis after Rnd 11 to see how things currently are
 

palmyscum

Tiger Rookie
Feb 9, 2004
438
0
im glad that brsibane have been at low odds all the time i have made a killing off them. They will win this week though
 

mainlandy

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2004
3,532
425
Mont Albert
I always like betting the footy double, this Saturday it's Geel v Freo and Coll v Hawth. Agree with everyone in here that Collingwood will beat the hawks and I feel that with the shocking performance of Freo last week they will come out firing against the cats and the end score may be alot closer.
Coll: 1-48, Cats 1-36 =$6
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
30,045
5,501
Melbourne
mainlandy said:
I always like betting the footy double, this Saturday it's Geel v Freo and Coll v Hawth. Agree with everyone in here that Collingwood will beat the hawks and I feel that with the shocking performance of Freo last week they will come out firing against the cats and the end score may be alot closer.
Coll: 1-48, Cats 1-36 =$6

Usually agree with you mainlandy but I'm going with the opposite tack. Too many people this year waiting for last year's form to show up when they should be looking at this years. (See how many people keep tipping the Saints, Power and Lions).

Cats far too good for a freo team that rarely travel well and got belted at home by a team prepared to run hard. The Cats have that plus skill, are at home so I'm expecting a belting.

Pies v Hawks tough to call after both had good wins. Taking a line through the Freo games the hawks should belt the pies though we all know that won't happen. Apart from round 1 the hawks have been good and even great on occassions, the pies less formidable.

Summary

Cats 49+ / Hawks 1-36 with a saver on the pies 13-24. Cost $12 for a $1 unit.
 

mainlandy

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2004
3,532
425
Mont Albert
I'm glad you don't agree with me jb, because every time we have agreed on a horse it's never won! On the other hand your bet is much more sensible than mine and is the way to go, but I always go for a bit of value and that's hoping Freo put up a good show. One of us should get the chocolates.
 

palmyscum

Tiger Rookie
Feb 9, 2004
438
0
Round 10 is filled with some interesting contests.

Nine's Friday Night Football comes from the Telstra Dome where Melbourne ($1.70)
take on Richmond ($2.15). Both sides were impressive last week and will be
hoping to bring that good form into this contest. Watch this match on Nine from
8.30pm (check your local guides).

On Saturday afternoon, Collingwood ($2.40) battle Hawthorn ($1.58) from the MCG.
These teams won as massive underdogs last week so this is shaping as one of the
toughest matches to tip. I fancy the Magpies in a close one.

While these two sides do battle, Geelong ($1.21) will host Fremantle ($4.50)
from Skilled Stadium. The Cats are the hottest side in the AFL at the moment and
you would have to be brave to tip against them here.

On Saturday night, Brisbane ($1.22) tackle the Kangaroos ($4.35) from the Gabba.
The Lions have lost their last 4 matches at home and will be desperate to notch
up a win in front of their home fans. The Kangaroos have dropped off from their
early season form so this is the perfect opportunity for Brisbane.

While this contest goes on, St Kilda ($1.42) take on the Swans ($2.90) from the
Telstra Dome. The Saints play well at this venue and I expect to hear their club
song at full time.

Nine’s Sunday Football comes to you from AAMI Stadium where the Crows ($1.21)
will play Carlton ($4.50). Adelaide have won against the odds a couple of times
this year, so it will be interesting to see how they go as favourites. It is
worth keeping in mind that Carlton won here last year. Tune into Nine at 1:00pm
for this match.

The second leg of Nine’s double header sees Essendon ($1.87) clash with the
Bulldogs ($1.95) from the Telstra Dome. This one could go either way and should
be high scoring. You can watch it from 4pm (check your local guides).

The final match of the round is between West Coast ($1.30) and Port Adelaide
($3.55) from Subiaco.

p.s i didnt write this thanks to http://nrlninemsn.oztips.com/afl
 

palmyscum

Tiger Rookie
Feb 9, 2004
438
0
Had to put some serious thought on this weeks bets but heres goes nothing!! got abit of money from last week from tipping upsets might go again this week

1. ESSENDON-WST BULLDOGS ( in other words dons to be up at half time and dogies to come back) at $6.25 payout = $31.25 , dogs should have beat sydney last week and will like coming home from behind.

2. Blues to beat adalaide at $4.00 payout = $20 , they beat them last year and gave port a run at home this year

3.COLLINGWOOD-HAWTHORN at $6.00 payout = $30, hunch collingwood will come about firing but hawks will overrun them with better mid field


Total possible win = $ 81.25 - $15 outlay = $66.25

"YOU NEVER EVER KNOW ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR"
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
19,221
851
having had a look at the teams, It has confirmed what a great chance the Swans are this week IMO,

Leysy will be having a good go at them @$2.90 & will be coupling them up with Richmond, Collingwood & maybe Port in multis....... :angel:
 

mainlandy

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2004
3,532
425
Mont Albert
Return of Cynicism said:
mainlandy said:
I always like betting the footy double, this Saturday it's Geel v Freo and Coll v Hawth. Agree with everyone in here that Collingwood will beat the hawks and I feel that with the shocking performance of Freo last week they will come out firing against the cats and the end score may be alot closer.
Coll: 1-48, Cats 1-36 =$6

At the Moment i believe Collingwood will win, but my mind could change after i see the full teams, But there is no way Freo will get within 36 points of the cats.
Whats it paying for Collingwood 1-48, Cats 37 or over.

Roc, a footy double is like a quaddie, it depends on how many people get the margin. For instance last week's Sunday double Geel +73 and Hawthorn 49-60 paid $1500. If the most obvious result eventuates you won't get much back.
 

anemzor

Tiger Cub
May 16, 2005
122
0
Brisbane, Australia
Your bet has been successfully placed with the following Serial Number: ***********
The bet details are as follows: A$198, Richmond, Head to Head, Australian Rules AFL Round 10 Melbourne v Richmond, @2.2, to return A$435.60

I know the boys will pull through tonight :)