Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

I am somewhat concerned about the fight to be first for vaccines and how this is leaving behind countries that should actually be at the front or near the front of the queue.
One example is South Africa which now has it's own strain but has only secured enough vaccine for 1% of it's population. There are many countries in Asia, Africa, Middle east and South America who will be in the same position.
Ultimately we will never be at a new normal globally with overseas travel unless the whole world is at a decent level of vaccination and to achieve that richer countries are going to have to pay something, whether that be through the WHO or elsewhere.
I just don't hear it being discussed but I hope it is.

 

[Coburgtiger]

you think the latest outbreak was due to luck or poor management?

and who is lying ? Nebuliser guy of the vic government? Or is no one lying as suggested by Emma Cassar? Do you swallow such *smile*?

one year in and we still haven’t put in the correct protocols. It’s laughable.

Wondering why you didn't have this reaction to the New South Wales outbreak that caused us to have a restricted Christmas and New years?

No mystery cases shows our contact tracing to be working impressively.

This outbreak is still on the knife's edge. But we're doing all the right things.

 

[Brodders17]

you think the latest outbreak was due to luck or poor management?

and who is lying ? Nebuliser guy of the vic government? Or is no one lying as suggested by Emma Cassar? Do you swallow such *smile*?

one year in and we still haven’t put in the correct protocols. It’s laughable.

I dont know is the answer, and in reality it is everyone's answer.
I am sure there are things that could be done better with quarantine, in all states.
All states, and NZ (which is comparable to Aust) have had the virus escap from quarantine, multiple times.
So far, each time is has escaped it has been contained pretty well- with the 1 obvious glaring exception, and the reasons why it got so quickly out of control in Victoria are still not clear.

in regards to the nebuliser, having had involvement through work with health workers of different kinds, and having had involvement with different parts of DHHS, it wouldnt surprised me if a worker gave the wrong info, or if a message was misunderstood- quite likely IMO, or if the patient is lying. again I dont know, and neither does anyone, except the person deliberately lying- if that is the case.

 

[Brodders17]

I am somewhat concerned about the fight to be first for vaccines and how this is leaving behind countries that should actually be at the front or near the front of the queue.
One example is South Africa which now has it's own strain but has only secured enough vaccine for 1% of it's population. There are many countries in Asia, Africa, Middle east and South America who will be in the same position.
Ultimately we will never be at a new normal globally with overseas travel unless the whole world is at a decent level of vaccination and to achieve that richer countries are going to have to pay something, whether that be through the WHO or elsewhere.
I just don't hear it being discussed but I hope it is.

all true, and the more the virus circulates the more likelihood there is that it will mutate, reducing the effectiveness of vaccines.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

I am somewhat concerned about the fight to be first for vaccines and how this is leaving behind countries that should actually be at the front or near the front of the queue.
One example is South Africa which now has it's own strain but has only secured enough vaccine for 1% of it's population. There are many countries in Asia, Africa, Middle east and South America who will be in the same position.
Ultimately we will never be at a new normal globally with overseas travel unless the whole world is at a decent level of vaccination and to achieve that richer countries are going to have to pay something, whether that be through the WHO or elsewhere.
I just don't hear it being discussed but I hope it is.

I read a figure last week, that suggested that it will take 6 years to reach so called (global) 'herd immunity' via vaccination. Yes, 6 years! Which intuitively sounds about right if we get a head around what tiny scale of over all global population will be vaccinated in the short term (consistent with your figures above). And by that point the same article mentioned that it could be that there are a multitude of strains in existence that are immune to (or at least resistant to) available vaccines

The perception that vaccination is some type of silver bullet (largely pushed by politicians) and will lead the world going back to some type of normality for overseas mobility, even in the medium term, is looking increasingly unlikely. And in truth, probably never was likely.

 

[Sintiger]

I read a figure last week, that suggested that it will take 6 years to reach so called (global) 'herd immunity' via vaccination. Yes, 6 years! Which intuitively sounds about right if we get a head around what tiny scale of over all global population will be vaccinated in the short term (consistent with your figures above). And by that point the same article mentioned that it could be that there are a multitude of strains in existence that are immune to (or at least resistant to) available vaccines

The perception that vaccination is some type of silver bullet (largely pushed by politicians) and will lead the world going back to some type of normality for overseas mobility, even in the medium term, is looking increasingly unlikely. And in truth, probably never was likely.

The time is somewhat rubbery PT. I have heard a leading epidemiologist talk about it recently and his view was 2 years.
Whatever the timeline is it’s not soon!!

 

[Ian4]

This outbreak is still on the knife's edge. But we're doing all the right things.

17 people in the cluster. The original family of 3, plus 14 community transmissions in 6 days. compare this to Sydney before Xmas that had 78 cases in 3 days (albeit, not the UK strain). the 1 case today was a "weak positive." It was basically called a positive case so the DHHS can isolate close contacts, which is not unreasonable.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is that it doesn't feel like its on a knife edge to me. We have it well under control. Of course, we need to be weary of the exposure sites. QV Markets is a worry no doubt. But the mini cluster at the Coburg play centre was 9 days ago now. The airport issue was 6 days ago now and the there appears to be good news.

Here's hoping for 2 donut days and opening back up on thursday.

 

[AngryAnt]

I dont know is the answer, and in reality it is everyone's answer.
I am sure there are things that could be done better with quarantine, in all states.
All states, and NZ (which is comparable to Aust) have had the virus escap from quarantine, multiple times.
So far, each time is has escaped it has been contained pretty well- with the 1 obvious glaring exception, and the reasons why it got so quickly out of control in Victoria are still not clear.

in regards to the nebuliser, having had involvement through work with health workers of different kinds, and having had involvement with different parts of DHHS, it wouldnt surprised me if a worker gave the wrong info, or if a message was misunderstood- quite likely IMO, or if the patient is lying. again I dont know, and neither does anyone, except the person deliberately lying- if that is the case.

When I came through airport and quarantine last month I was asked about four times if I had any existing medical conditions, if I was taking or needed medication etc. This doesn't solve the problem with this guy and the nebuliser - did he say he was using it or not? But the process was definitely there to understand if people were using medical equipment.

 

[eZyT]

I think we should have a national approach to quarantine so we have consistency.

Isn't it a national security issue?

yes. International arrivals have always been, and always will be, a Federal issue from what I can tell.

I simply cant work out how Morrison has sidestepped this?

Why is Scomo continuing to sit on his hands?

Because he isn't very competent and wants to present the smallest target possible.

Its most obvious on Covid and Quarantine,

but it far broader than that.

 

[Sintiger]

in regards to the nebuliser, having had involvement through work with health workers of different kinds, and having had involvement with different parts of DHHS, it wouldnt surprised me if a worker gave the wrong info, or if a message was misunderstood- quite likely IMO, or if the patient is lying. again I dont know, and neither does anyone, except the person deliberately lying- if that is the case.

My understanding Brodders is that any decision on the nebuliser was not referred to health workers or DHHS until the person in question was transferred to a hot hotel after being found positive . At that point it was referred to someone at the Alfred Hospital where the nebuliser was replaced by another device. This is essentially what the patient said in the article that was in the Age on the weekend.
Infection control at the Quarantine hotels is not handled by health dept, it is only at the COVID positive and suspected hotels that is the case which is the decision that I was referring to in an earlier post that to me is wrong.
In that article the patient said even when he got to a hot hotel he was told he could keep the nebuliser but that a call was made to the hospital and that decision was immediately changed.

 

[MD Jazz]

in regards to the nebuliser, having had involvement through work with health workers of different kinds, and having had involvement with different parts of DHHS, it wouldnt surprised me if a worker gave the wrong info, or if a message was misunderstood- quite likely IMO, or if the patient is lying. again I dont know, and neither does anyone, except the person deliberately lying- if that is the case.

I'd hope what you suggest is not correct. Would you think it is satisfactory for misinformation to be given 12 months into hotel quarantine? After an inquiry that was scathing in its criticism?

One imagines those in charge would be doing everything to ensure messages are clear, and clearly understood? Or perhaps those involved made creeping assumptions?

 

[MD Jazz]

Infection control at the Quarantine hotels is not handled by health dept, it is only at the COVID positive and suspected hotels that is the case which is the decision that I was referring to in an earlier post that to me is wrong.

Why wouldn't they be in control at all quarantine hotels?

 

[Sintiger]

Why wouldn't they be in control at all quarantine hotels?

Because the justice Dept runs them and they have their own advisers evidently.

 

[Coburgtiger]

17 people in the cluster. The original family of 3, plus 14 community transmissions in 6 days. compare this to Sydney before Xmas that had 78 cases in 3 days (albeit, not the UK strain). the 1 case today was a "weak positive." It was basically called a positive case so the DHHS can isolate close contacts, which is not unreasonable.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is that it doesn't feel like its on a knife edge to me. We have it well under control. Of course, we need to be weary of the exposure sites. QV Markets is a worry no doubt. But the mini cluster at the Coburg play centre was 9 days ago now. The airport issue was 6 days ago now and the there appears to be good news.

Here's hoping for 2 donut days and opening back up on thursday.

Testing time frames and incubation periods mean there are still so many possible exposure sites where this could explode.

It's a critical period that could go either way if we don't get it right. Or if we get unlucky.

I'm confident we will.

 

[MB78]

The first vaccine’s have now landed. Excellent news. Now to get them out to the front line quarantine staff ASAP.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

I think we should have a national approach to quarantine so we have consistency. It's the biggest risk to the economic and health prosperity of this country. Why (unless jurisdictional) wouldn't you want control over that if you are the federal gov't? Unless you don't think you could do any better so judge the political risk too great?

Imagine the kudos if you took it over and got it right? I reckon the 4 panelists from Q&A last week could get it planned & sorted in a week or so. The $$ cost should be irrelevant?

Isn't it a national security issue?

Reading the business press last week, apparently there are early stage conversations going on between the Wagner family - who built and own the Toowoomba-Wellcamp airport - to construct a purpose built, 1300 bed quarantine facility on the airfield land. International flights would land directly at the Toowoomba-Wellcamp airport and arriving passengers would go straight into the facility. He described a facility that resembles Howard Springs in Darwin, but directly on the airport grounds. He says he could have it built and running within 4 months of getting the go ahead.

More importantly, while 1000 beds would be for quarantining arrivals. 300 beds would be for staff, who I assume would work several week stints, staying there, not mixing with the general community between shifts (a bit like fly in fly out mining workers). Going some way to alleviating the major chink in the armour of hotel quarantine that keeps coming up over and over again.

Sure the Wagners are talking their own book and are not doing this purely out of the goodness of their heart. They see a profitable business opportunity. But why has it taken so long for someone to come up with a concrete plan of this type? The Federal government owns heaps of land around the vast majority of our airports. I said on here months ago (as did others) that this exact model should have been instituted across half a dozen of our airports. The Federal Government owns plenty of land to do it.

But I think it goes back to what I said earlier. All eggs were seemingly were put in the vaccine basket. There is this perception among the politicians and the public, that the vaccine is a silver bullet, fix all solution. And as soon as that magic wand is waved, everything goes back to normal. Which clearly will not be the case. Hence why perhaps there haven't been moves for longer term management solutions and facilities. And we've bumbled along with the hotel quarantine temporary band aid. When the elephant in the room is that we likely need a longer term (perhaps years long) management solution with purpose built facilities.

 

[Redford]

The first vaccine’s have now landed. Excellent news. Now to get them out to the front line quarantine staff ASAP.

Interesting that Pfizer is provisionally approved but AZ, the horse we've hitched our carriage to, is not yet despite us having the closer affinity and involvement with via CSL.

 

[MD Jazz]

Perhaps we should start a crowd funding page for a national quarantine program?

 

[22nd Man]

I think we should have a national approach to quarantine so we have consistency. It's the biggest risk to the economic and health prosperity of this country. Why (unless jurisdictional) wouldn't you want control over that if you are the federal gov't? Unless you don't think you could do any better so judge the political risk too great?

Imagine the kudos if you took it over and got it right? I reckon the 4 panelists from Q&A last week could get it planned & sorted in a week or so. The $$ cost should be irrelevant?

Isn't it a national security issue?

Good angle.... States and particularly Vic have said health is our concern, economy (or certain parts of it) can take a back seat. Canberra want it both, so yes they might want to take it over.
But I say whomare the federa govt people to run it ? Canberra depts don't have doctors nipurses even scientists in their ranks (well not practising ones)

How does Canberra exercise control over state govt employees.? Or do they employ a whole battalion of quarantine staff from the ranks of state hospitals etc?

 

[DavidSSS]

Quarantine is a Federal responsibility, surely they must have some people to do this sort of thing.

The quarantine should have been out of hotels months ago, it isn't like a lot of people haven't been saying this for months, it isn't like quarantine hasn't traditionally been a long way from population centres (like Point Nepean).

4 months to build a quarantine camp? Come on, that's pathetic.

DS