would be rapt if Geesook lost. But dont think they will.
Freekicks to the sooks will be high; lions not the smartest team going round, wont play that ground well I dont think.
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Geelong's 1st pick 2021. Its ours
- Thread starter zippadeee
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Freekicks to the sooks will be high; lions not the smartest team going round, wont play that ground well I dont think.
it was mentioned earlier that only 5 teams out of the past 58 have made the finals from 0-2
Whilst thats a high possibility , it would also be massive pressure on these 2 teams
Lions you and inexperienced and not knowing what to do
Cats old and burnt out with their best player suspended and old legs just cant cope with 120 mins of running out games under the pressure of missing out on finals after going all in with pensioners
Lets not get ahead of ourselves. With the amount of Games in Geelong they are still destined to finish top 4,5 or 6. Cant see them dropping off much in the year. The first few rounds always have a few surprises
I want surprises.
You could've said the same about the crows in 2018 and the Giants in 2020.
The Punt rd Grim Reaper is in Geelong
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Clearly because a lot of them were crap Teams. If the 2010 tigers were 2-0 you probably still would have expected them to misss. Just like we all still expect the 1-0 crows and 1-0 swans to miss
Correlation and causation are different things. I’m a maths nerd but we should leave this simplistic analysis to the media for clickbait headlines to create a crisis. Clearly there is some impact of losing games with where you end up the year but the biggest cause of where you end up for the year is how good your team will be on average and probably also how difficult your opponents are given luck of the draw.
If a good team is 0-2 for whatever reason then their chances of making the eight are lower than at the start of the year but better than 10%. If a crap team is 0-2 their chances of making the eight will be way less than 10%. Saying all 0-2 teams have a 5/58 chance of making eight just doesn’t make sense because some of them are still good teams but the bulk will be very poor teams.
betting markets will give a good indication of actual odds.
but yes I’m massively deathriding Geelong and they are screwed if they lose (I hope)
You're probably right, KK, but the Cats still have to play the Tigers twice, Port at Adelaide Oval, Sydney at the SCG and Brisbane at the 'Gabba all before the end of July. Saints at Docklands and Freo at Perth Stadium won't be walks in the park, either. Drop this one and things suddenly get a bit harder.
Would you still expect us to play finals this year if we dropped our first 2 games? We don't start to take things seriously until the bye in every year we've won the GF
On face value I tend to agree but history says otherwise. As someone else posted only 5 teams from the last 58 to start a season 0-2 have made the finals in that same season.
Plus teams can drop off quickly as we have seen with Crows in 2018 and Giants in 2020; no one predicted them to miss finals.
I'd luv nothing more than the Kitty Litter Cats to miss the finals, particularly given we get a gift wrapped top 10 pick as a result. However, given the number of games they have at home this year the vast majority of which they'll win I expect them to make it. It will take a massive injury toll to see them fall away significantly.
Nice little stat but the real one to look at is the number of finalists (and even the top 4 to be more relevant to Geelong and Brisbane) from the year before start out 0-2 the following year.
Plenty of the 58 teams in that stat would have been expected to start 0-2 like North this year and had no chance of making finals anyway
