March To The Finals - 2020.

[23.21.159]

It's much easier to work this sort of thing out with the "perfect" 17-game season.
All things being equal, the best side wins 17 games, second is 16-1, third is 15-2 and so on.
So, on average you will need 14 wins for top four and 10 for top eight.
That ain't gonna happen if for no other reason than every team has already lost at least one game, and there has been one draw.
But the 17-game season streamlines this sort of calculation better than the 22-game season ever did.

The intricacies of the hubs and so on makes me think wins-and-losses wise, things will be much more even this year so I suspect percentage may be more meaningful than it normally would be.

 

[Disco]

It's much easier to work this sort of thing out with the "perfect" 17-game season.
All things being equal, the best side wins 17 games, second is 16-1, third is 15-2 and so on.
So, on average you will need 14 wins for top four and 10 for top eight.
That ain't gonna happen if for no other reason than every team has already lost at least one game, and there has been one draw.
But the 17-game season streamlines this sort of calculation better than the 22-game season ever did.

The intricacies of the hubs and so on makes me think wins-and-losses wise, things will be much more even this year so I suspect percentage may be more meaningful than it normally would be.

The draw against Coll has the potential to make it or break it for us.

 

[tigerdell]

Compared to 22 rounds
Finals is normally 13 wins (55%)
15 is top 4 (70%)
16+ is top 2

So in 17 rounds
to make finals is 10 wins
Top 4 is 13 wins
And 15 wins on percentage gets top spot

** i would also guess that this year will have more upset tesults, with less wins needed for top 4.**


With 12 weeks left we need to win 11 to make top 4.
Percentage will only become factor if we finish on equal points as the pies.

 

[Ian4]

Agree. Will likely be 9, maybe 10 at a stretch. I think with uncertainty of 2020, results will probably land at 9 wins to make it.

with the draw against the pies, 9.5 wins will surely be enough.

Compared to 22 rounds
Finals is normally 13 wins (55%)
15 is top 4 (70%)
16+ is top 2

So in 17 rounds
to make finals is 10 wins
Top 4 is 13 wins
And 15 wins on percentage gets top spot

** i would also guess that this year will have more upset tesults, with less wins needed for top 4.**


With 12 weeks left we need to win 11 to make top 4.
Percentage will only become factor if we finish on equal points as the pies.

last year you needed 16 wins. although all top 4 teams ended up with 16 wins, so 15 is probably the right number. i calculate that as a 68% winning percentage required. 68% of 17 games is 11.5 wins. So we need to win 9 out of 12 to make the top 4.

 

[Ice]

We are sitting on 4 1/2 wins, with 10 games to go.

I reckon 9 1/2 wins gets us top 8, and 11 1/2 wins top 4. Maybe 10 1/2 will be enough.

So ideally another 7 wins from the remaining 10 games for top 4.

 

[Ice]

R1 v Carlton - MCG. #win (1)
R2 v Collingwood- MCG. #draw. (1.5)
R3. V Hawks. MCG. Loss
R4 v St Kilda - Marvel. Loss
R5 v Melbourne MCG. Win. (2.5)
R6. V. Sydney. Gabba. Win 3.5
R7. V. North. Metricon. Win 4.5

R8. v. GWS - Sydney
R9. v Bulldogs
R10. v Brisbane - Metricon
R11. v Port - Adelaide
R12. v Gold Coast - Gabba

West Coast
Freo
Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

 

[zippadeee]

R1 v Carlton - MCG. #win (1)
R2 v Collingwood- MCG. #draw. (1.5)
R3. V Hawks. MCG. Loss
R4 v St Kilda - Marvel. Loss
R5 v Melbourne MCG. Win. (2.5)
R6. V. Sydney. Gabba. Win 3.5
R7. V. North. Metricon. Win 4.5

R8. v. GWS - Sydney
R9. v Bulldogs
R10. v Brisbane - Metricon
R11. v Port - Adelaide
R12. v Gold Coast - Gabba

West Coast
Freo
Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

Essendon is more likely at the Start of the next fixture.
The most likely out come will be.
Essendon Darwin
Geelong Gabba
Adelaide AO
Freo Optus
West Coast Optus

 

[Ridley]

I fear we're in some strife. We have won 4 games against teams in the bottom half of the ladder including 2 of the worst 3 teams. As at the start of this round we haven't beaten a team in the top 8 after 8 games and have just let a struggling Giants team off the hook. We still have to play 6 of the top 8 teams in the run home including Brisbane in Brisbane, Port in Adelaide, and West Coast in Perth. Dogs are a bogey side for us and we play them next week.

We're playing poor football and our forward line is a complete dog's breakfast; so hard to watch. We are just so wasteful in front of goal. Teams just flood against us to great effect and our coaching staff appear clueless in how to counteract it. We're really not playing well and we have very little time to turn it around against the better half of the competition.

 

[toby64]

Will do well to win more than one of the next 4 games. With our injuries and the way we are playing, particularly the forward line, it will be touch and go if we make finals IMO

 

[Ridley]

Will do well to win more than one of the next 4 games. With our injuries and the way we are playing, particularly the forward line, it will be touch and go if we make finals IMO

I think we are very little chance of top 4. Bottom half of the final 8 is probably the best we can hope for. It'a real tough run for a team playing pretty ordinary footy.

 

[Tigerfan]

R1 v Carlton - MCG. #win (1)
R2 v Collingwood- MCG. #draw. (1.5)
R3. V Hawks. MCG. Loss
R4 v St Kilda - Marvel. Loss
R5 v Melbourne MCG. Win. (2.5)
R6. V. Sydney. Gabba. Win. (3.5)
R7. V. North. Metricon Win. (4.5)
R8. V. GWS. Sydney. Loss
R9. V w B dogs Metricon. Win. (5.5)
R 10. V. Bris. Metricon.
R 11. V port.
r12. V. GC Suns.
r13
R 14
R 15
R 16
R 17

to play: Adel. Ess Freo. Geel WCE

9 played : 5 wins 1 draw. 3 losses

 

[waiting]

9 played : 5 wins 1 draw. 3 losses

Will probably finish with Geelong, WC last two games. Just my thoughts.

Where???

 

[Platinum member]

We won’t be going to Perth... definitely playing WC and freo in QLD

 

[Ian4]

We won’t be going to Perth... definitely playing WC and freo in QLD

how do you know?

 

[zippadeee]

how do you know?

Mark McGowan just rang him

 

[zippadeee]

Gws at spotless
Port at AO
Stkilda at Docklands
Essendon in Darwin

I see our next group of games being
Gc Gabba
Essendon Darwin
Freo Metricon
Wc Gabba
Adelaide SA
Geelong Gabba

 

[Platinum member]

how do you know?

They’re not staying in Perth until the end of the year. They have the last two teams in Perth now.. syd and gws. Then they’ll definitely be moving to qld hubs to finish the year.

 

[TrialByVideo]

They’re not staying in Perth until the end of the year. They have the last two teams in Perth now.. syd and gws. Then they’ll definitely be moving to qld hubs to finish the year.

Heard Adam Simpson on radio yesterday virtually concede that they'll be on the move again.... Wouldn't be surprised if we played either of the WA teams or the crows in the NT if they let us in.

 

[year of the tiger]

I would have thought WA was a more COVID safe state than Qld but what would I know.

So we have 5.5 wins.

Games scheduled are Lions, Power (in Adelaide) and Suns and Essendon (NT) to come, we travel interstate twice - say we split these down the middle and win the last 2 of those

Games yet scheduled - Adelaide, Eagles, Dockers and Geelong - again say we split these also and win 2 more.

Does 9.5 wins get us into the 8.

PS - this is my absolute worst case scenario.

 

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

Our only worry is peaking too early.