PRE 2017 Phantom Draft

[bullus_hit]

Its amazing how different people see things differently even though they respect each others views and opinions, To me i personally see Chol more as a backman relief Ruck than a foward

Chol has the height speed leap and athleticism but lacks the ability to read the play or create the play and thats why he presents better as a backman that goes to the incoming rather than create the ball to come to him.

But i would be over the moon if he becomes a foward that can dominate

Chol showed some good signs during the finals series, no doubt he's a work in progress but one cannot forget he's a raw as the come. Two years in he's progressing just fine, it's also good he's seen success from the sidelines, that should be enough to stir a bit of emotion.

 

[BrisTiger24]

ST KILDA

7. Darcy Fogarty
8. Aaron Naughton
34. Cassidy Parish
45. Nathan Kreuger

Darcy Fogarty, if he slips this far would be a great pick for the Saints. With Riewoldt now in retirement some more firepower needs to be injected into the forward line and Fogarty could be anything. By his own standards he's had a shizen year, particularly given many had him in the equation as a potential number one but a lot of that form loss could be attributed to meniscus issues which have hampered him all year. One plus that's emerged is Fogarty is now 193cm which places him alongside Wooller & McCartin as an undersized key position prospect. When stacked up against those two I think he's a far more exciting package, his agility makes him dangerous at ground level and he's not afraid to have a gallop if the moment arises. Whilst his tank is still a work in progress he possesses good speed for his size and his core body strength makes him very difficult to tackle. His marking is also exceptional & he often uses his leap to counter taller defenders. If I were to come up with a comparison I'd say Jake Stringer but it wouldn't be out of the question for him to add 10kg to his frame and nail down a Tex Walker type role.

At pick 8 I think the Sainters have reached and would have been better targeting a midfielder here. I can see why people like Naughton, he's tall, athletic and possesses good closing speed which is a prerequisite for key defenders. In my opinion he's an athlete wanting to become a footballer and with that comes significant risk. First of all the mechanics of his kicking action are really frustrating to watch and it will take some serious remedial work to achieve any fluency, the end result is usually a loopy kick which creates unnecessary pressure downfield. This may not have been so pronounced at junior level due to the anti-density rule but it won't be so easy to avoid once he steps up to AFL. I get the fact he's played ok in the SANFL seniors but poor kicks usually get found out at the highest level.

Cassidy Parish comes in at 34 but for me he's a late to rookie pick. Just looking at the fact Oscar Clavarino went the pick after I really feel as though the Saints could have left the key position defender requirements to this pick, as opposed to pick 8. A combination of Bonar & Clavarino seems much better than Naughton & Parish, this I believe will be entirely feasible in the real deal. At 48 Nathan Kreuger is a nice speculative pick with some good upisde, this is about the time one can look at bringing in the tall athletic types who need to bring in some consistency to their game. Whilst I don't believe Kreuger will ever make it as a key position player he may well find a role as a third tall swingman.

Grade: B-

Thanks Bully, great analysis again.

Naughton to me is the stand out KPD in the draft. Nothing gets past him. If he slips like you say, it will be Alex Rance all.over again I reckon.

Also, on Bonar, like I said in my pick, I don't think the Saints can take the risk. They need to draft two first rounders that are going to be great to elite players. If Bonar flops, that would be disaster for the Saints who are trying to make.rhe jump into finals.over the next few years

 

[BrisTiger24]

BTW - there was a bit of talk up here today about the Lions selecting Brayshaw with the number 1 pick. Now that would be an amazing leap but not a bad selection for them. Pretty low risk option. Guaranteed to be a decent player at AFL level IMO

 

[bullus_hit]

SYDNEY

15. Hunter Clark
33. Tom McCartin
51. Bayley Fritsch
88. Billy Hartung

At pick 15 the Swans have gone with Hunter Clark which I think is a very solid pick and a player who will likely play half back and then move up the ground. Clark's been a permanent fixture at the AFL Academy and has proven his worth as a hard nosed flanker with good disposal on either side of the body. His late form in the TAC saw him receive more midfield minutes and he didn't disappoint with some classic clearance work and big possession tallies. His composure in heavy congestion was a little scrappy but I don't see this as terminal given his technique is sound.

Tom McCartin is a solid pick, being one of the youngest guys in the pool I'd expect some major upside when stacked up against the likes of Wooller. He'll need to finish year 12 in 2018 but that's a small price to pay for a hardworking key position prospect. Bayley Fritsch is the reiging Fothergill-Round medalist and the success with these types is almost ironclad. The Swans picked Towers a few years back so they have some history with selecting VFL young guns. At pick 88 comes Billy Hartung who from my perspective is one of the softest players in the AFL. I haven't met a Hawks supporter who rates him so that's enough to rule a line thrugh his name.

Grade: B+

 

[bullus_hit]

WESTERN BULLDOGS

9. Jarrod Brander
18. Mitchell Podhajski
82. Ben Lennon

Looking at this haul I think the Dogs would have been better off grabbing Coffield at 9 and then picking off one of Brander/Allen/Balta at 18. With Bob Murphy gone, grabbing the best rebounding backman makes perfect sense from a list management perspective. Podhajski may be able to fulfill that role but there's some chance he would have been available at pick 82. Ben Lennon at 82 made me choke on my cornflakes so the less said about that the better.

I think I'll spend a bit of time talking about Brander given he was a favourite of mine for most of the year and has wound up being a bitter disappointment. I've almost made excuses for him given the coaches persisted with the centre half back experiment, despite embarrassments such as the Lukosius towelling. For my money Brander is a forward but there's still major question marks about his intensity and this only really hit home for me in the All-Stars game. After the carnival I kept going over the footage of the Vic Metro game, which has really been his one and only top class game for the whole season. It was enough to earn him AA honours (despite Hugh Dixon being more consistent) and has largely clouded over the fact his stocks have collapsed after being the red hot favourite for the number one pick. But back to the All-Stars match, once again he was playing in defence but what was more concerning was the casualness of his approach. His kicking was sloppy, his left foot looked awkward and he covered the turf like a draught horse at the Caufield Cup. I do think he's better than that and his athletic testing was pretty good for a tall, but at pick 9 he carries significant risk of being a Ben Griffiths tease.

Grade: C-

 

[bullus_hit]

WEST COAST

14. Aiden Bonar
21. Lochie O'Brien
26. Lachlan Fogarty
32. Gryan Miers
37. Tim Kelly
69. Ben Paton
87. Jonty Scharenberg

Bonar is the great unknown in this draft, could be anything and one wonders whether he would have been in the conversation at pick 1 had he participated at the carnival. In terms of playing style he's a cross between Charlie Curnow & Christian Petracca and I suspect he'll be playing forward once he initially hits the scene. Apart from his tank which is still a work in progress, every other aspect of his athletic profile is outstanding, he's super quick, can jump and has the strength to burn off would-be tacklers. Whilst is kicking can be patchy, his first instinct is to handball which is similar in vain to Clayton Oliver & Patrick Cripps. Defensively he's also a menace who intimidates & harasses his opponents to the point where they start hearing footsteps. Despite the fact that Bonar has endured two surgeries on his knee I think at pick 14 he's a risk worth taking, there's even some chance he finds himself in the top handful of players in this year's crop.

Lochie O'Brien is the second best outside runner behind Stephenson. I actually think he'll go higher than this but if he doesn't it will be good news for Richmond as we're unlikely to get a Naish bid before 20. Being a former 400 metre runner O'Brien is a bonafide line breaker who is destined to be one of the AFL's top players for metres gained. His game on grand final day was probably his best for the year and being fresh in the minds of recruiters you'd expect him to go somewhere in the first round.

Lachlan Fograty gets my vote as the most underrated player in the draft, he's a super competitor and whilst he may not be a headline act you can just about mark down a 100 game career. As to why he may drift? Possibly being on the wrong side of 180cm will hurt his chances but that shouldn't matter if his roles are matched up accordingly. Miers at 32 is an interesting pick, he's just about the most prolific small in the pool with an elite tank but also ran a 3.19sec/20m. For a small forward this seems painfully slow but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt given he suffered from glandular fever. His 7 goal haul in the TAC grand final was one of the better displays I've seen and his footy smarts should compensate for a lack of leg speed. At 37 Time Kelly is a state league plug and play and looks a certainty to play out most of the 2018 season.

Down at the murky end of the pool we have Ben Paton, an overage kid who has been one of the most consistent performers for the year. If there were any doubts about his ability that should have been dispelled when he played superbly across half back in the VFL. Pick 87 goes to Jonty Scharenberg who was runners up in the B&F for his SANFL club after spending a year on a back flank. Probably stiff to miss last year but with speed not so critical in defence there's some chance he gets a reprieve.

Grade: A

 

[Tigerfan]

Fantastic effort Bully’s-Hit!

You deserve an award!

 

[tigersnake]

Yeah great stuff bully. Thanks. Fully pro

 

[waiting]

Thanks Bullus.

Highlight for me this time of the year reading all this and getting excited about who we pick.

Can't wait for next Friday.

Will be tuning in to see who we get!


For all others a big thanks too.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Thanks Bullus.

Highlight for me this time of the year reading all this and getting excited about who we pick.

Can't wait for next Friday.

Will be tuning in to see who we get!


For all others a big thanks too.

X2. keeps ppl not in the loop like myself up to date so when names are called out next week i have an idea who is who etc... Thx a Million Bully.

 

[bullus_hit]

Thanks for the feedback guys, certainly makes the time & effort worth it. Just for some last minute news, Rayner, D.Fogarty & Constable just completed a 2km time trial and all were pretty average (although I already knew they were poor runners). Rayner & Constable up there with Sam Hayes for aerobic capacity, must say I'd be pretty worried about picking Rayner at 1 or even 2. Brayshaw a sneaky chance for pick 1. Just for the heck of it here's my top 50.

1. Luke Davies-Uniacke
2. Jaidyn Stephenson
3. Andrew Brayshaw
4. Adam Cerra
5. Cam Rayner
6. Darcy Fogarty
7. Paddy Dow
8. Aiden Bonar
9. Jack Higgins
10. Nicholas Coffield
11. Noah Balta
12. Oscar Allen
13. Hunter Clark
14. Lochie O'Brien
15. Jarrod Brander
16. Connor Ballenden
17. Lachlan Fogarty
18. Zac Bailey
19. James Worpel
20. Joel Garner
21. Sam Taylor
22. Patrick Naish
23. Aaron Naughton
24. Jack Petruccelle
25. Kyron Hayden
26. Jordan Houlahan
27. Tim Kelly
28. Nathan Murphy
29. Ed Richards
30. Matthew Ling
31. Hugh Dixon
32. Andrew McPherson
33. Oscar Clavarino
34. Jake Patmore
35. Charlie Constable
36. Harrison Petty
37. Brent Daniels
38. Ryley Stoddart
39. Gryan Miers
40. Charlie Ballard
41. Brayden Ainsworth
42. Sam Hayes
43. Mitch Crowden
44. Charlie Spargo
45. Ben Paton
46. Nick Shipley
47. Tom McCartin
48. Will Walker
49. Brayden Crossley
50. Ben Miller

Hopefully not seen as cookie cutter, a few smokies thrown in there for good measure. Three players I wanted to include were Ross, Kreuger & Giro but you can't fit them all in. I've deliberately left out the state league guys because one can usually pick them up for nix in the rookie draft.

 

[Willo]

Appreciate the time and effort you've put into this Bully. Great work :clap

 

[Dev Tiger]

Great work Bullus. It is great that you have put your top fifty out there. I know someone that works in recruiting for another Melbourne club and he said they often get players in the fifties that they ranked in the twenties. I suppose that shows what an inexact science recruiting can be and how players like Jack Graham slip through most years.

 

[Letsroar]

Thanks for all the work Bullus. A great read as always

 

[Blind Turn]

Love your work Buulis but hope you're wrong. I'd be pretty disappointed with that hall.

 

[tigerdell]

super work Bullus. it gives those of us who have no idea an insight into these kids.
and i'll be going into the draft on friday with a christmas wish list, all based on the sayso of you, scoop, turk etc!

 

[Tigers of Old]

Just for the heck of it here's my top 50.

Love this bully. Appreciate anyone who puts their list out pre draft.
Be interesting to look back on in time.

 

[Ice]

fwiw, this mob did a phantom draft of consensus 'phantom drafters' for the top 40 picks

we ended up with Richards, Balta and Naish

http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=25084

 

[Scoop]

Worked on a top 30 this year. Here it is.

1. Cam Rayner
2. Luke Davies-Uniacke
3. Adam Cerra
4. Andrew Brayshaw
5 Paddy Dow
6 Jaidyn Stehpenson
7 Hunter Clark
8 Darcy Fogarty
9 Aiden Bonar
10 Noah Balta
11 Nathan Murphy
12 Nicholas Coffiedl
13 Patrick Naish
14 Oscar Allen
15 Jack Higgins
16 Lochie O’Brien
17 Jarrod Brander
18 Aaron Naughton
19 Charlie Constable
20 Matthew Ling
21 Ed Richards
22 Jack Petrucelle
23 Tim Kelly
24 Joel Garner
25 Sam Taylor
26 Charlie Ballard
27 Connor Ballenden
28 Zac Bailey
29 Jordan Houlahan
30 Ryley Stoddart

 

[tigerlove]

That Oscar Allen looks like a pretty smart player. Any chance of him dropping to us?