The Road to the Big Dance | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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The Road to the Big Dance

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
27,004
7,283
i have this sinking feeling that we're gonna see a repeat of 2021. I hope I'm wrong, but I find the second half fadeouts alarming. The next 3 weeks will decide our fate.

FYI, I really hate the phrase “big dance.”
I think the same Binny. I don’t think we,re gunna flick some switch and play like we did in 2017-2020, just as we didn’t last year.
 

Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
14,373
5,193
I think the same Binny. I don’t think we,re gunna flick some switch and play like we did in 2017-2020, just as we didn’t last year.
difference is this year we are playing close to 17-20, in patches. we coulda/shoulda won about 10 games so far. we havent because we havent played well enough for long enough, but i reckon there is reason to hope some adjustments can lead to more consistent 4 quarter efforts, which will lead to more wins.
or you could be right and the season will peter out.
 
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Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
21,167
2,766
Melbourne
difference is this year we are playing close to 17-20, in patches. we coulda/shoulda won about 10 games so far. we havent because we havent played well enough for long enough, but i reckon there is reason to hope some adjustments can lead to more consistent 4 quarter efforts, which will lead to more wins.
or you could be right and the season will peter out.

yep. our season is right on the tipping point and i don't know which way we're gonna fall. Its more hope than faith that we fall on the right side as i don't have enough evidence for either.
 
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El Riggardless

Tiger Rookie
Nov 13, 2010
216
81
yep. our season is right on the tipping point and i don't know which way we're gonna fall. Its more hope than faith that we fall on the right side as i don't have enough evidence for either.
The next 4 games will show we are at. 3w 1L we are alive. Anything else I think shows we are in decline
 
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TigerForce

Tiger Legend
Apr 26, 2004
57,836
8,557
yep. our season is right on the tipping point and i don't know which way we're gonna fall. Its more hope than faith that we fall on the right side as i don't have enough evidence for either.
Just hope we don't end up as Ninthmond again.
 

tora

Tiger Rookie
Dec 10, 2021
206
198
63
difference is this year we are playing close to 17-20, in patches. we coulda/shoulda won about 10 games so far. we havent because we havent played well enough for long enough, but i reckon there is reason to hope some adjustments can lead to more consistent 4 quarter efforts, which will lead to more wins.
or you could be right and the season will peter out.
In our heyday we'd often be behind for a quarter or 2 and come good in the last half. The way we start strong now is like 2015. Dunno how we manipulate slow starts? Nank, Dusty, Lynch on the bench?
 

Tigers2020

Tiger Rookie
Nov 6, 2020
162
134
Expected score had us winning 89 to 53. We are starting to become elite defensively again
 
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spook

Tiger Legend
Jun 18, 2007
17,679
15,470
Melbourne
Yeah a bit. Dimma and Kerr are alike. Dusty is our Steph both freaks that changed the game.
A breakthrough title that everyone wrote off as a one-off, franked by later back-to-backs, then a drop-off, then...

That channel is awesome for NBA content. The bloke does his homework. Loves a graph.
 

Dyer'ere

Licensed to kazoo
Sep 21, 2004
17,998
3,700
There's been a path for all of 2022.

We know what it is.

First, emerging youth. That's crucial.

2022 was absolutely unlike 2021 and 2018 because in 2022 we have emerging youth. Let's go over that.

We have Rioli emerging as an elite HBF. Is he the best defender in the game yet? No. But he might get there. He's playing very tight right now. But we do use him shrewdly to get off when we can. Are we screaming for Bachar right now? Nup.

We tried Noah as a ruck/forward. It looked slow burn. By no means an overnight success. Then we threw him back again. Then we pulled a brilliant switcheroo with Godcus. Then he was injured. Then tried forward again with better results than injured. We haven't exhausted this avenue yet. But we wanted Noah to stay sound in 2022. (He needs the experience.) This one is still unknown and we're all a bit bearish. Forget about whether you or I think Noah is a forward or a back. RFC has plans that involve swinging him. We haven't had any luck so far. But it is not done.

Gibcus. We've managed him beautifully. The swinging forward thing worked superbly twice. He's had some huge assignments. He has cemented a senior place in a Dynastic side that is planning another premiership.

MoJu. He's playing mid in the Magoos atm. His tank is massively improved and he can manage the workload at senior level. He's working on quicker use, ball winning and flair with DIMBIH. HIs pressure is still awesome. We will turn him loose again. But it may be nearer finals.

Juddy. Far too slender to be colliding in the ones yet, our chile is an elite user with plans for the ball. We are testing him for finals right now. It's not an accident that he was promoted at exactly bye time. It's a thing we do.

The thing about emerging youth, the reason it's so important is tat they just don't surprise us and themselves - they surprise the opposition.

We need Dion and Dusty in the ones and screwed down. We are geniuses at timing the flourish of our players' fitness. We can't give them new joints but we can plan the wear and tear on the ones they have. So we budget. Burly and ageing. But Dion is no longer tentative. Martin might still be. For a while. But next week, as at R16 we will have both on the park.

*But they could both get injured and then were *smile*.* That's the beauty of it. The fragility. What if they don't?

On top of this we have Baker getting 13 disposals, 5 clearances and 1.2 in a quarter in greasy conditions and establishing himself as a wet weather champion. We didn't see that coming. Will it rain in September?

Shai has a hip. But he plays and he plays well. At RFC we have plans and we know when the to get wound up. Shai lifted his discipline last week. He is preparing for September. We don't show the ball in June if we want to show the cup in October. We do want to do that.

Edwards may be battling but prior to the clavicle (craig is bullish but we're yet to hear from TBR) Trent Cotchin was in fine form.

Soldo had a knee. Nobody factored him. Nank is hanging in there and the clubs with rucks are less a threat than we thought. And perhaps Ryan...

How's Jack going? He's doing enough to provide a foil for Lynch, who is in career-bet form.

*Oh, but if we get beat this week we're done.* Maybe we will get done this week. Nothing has quite worked out so far. Geelong will be there in September. And Mr Damien Hardwick is planning for that.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
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Dynasty not over yet: The signs 'Tiger Time' is upon us again

All the key Richmond indicators suggest the Tigers are primed for another premiership tilt

In three important categories central to Hardwick and Richmond's recent premiership success – territory, scoring and defence – the Tigers have dominated the competition over the past two months.

In each of 2017, 2019 and 2020, Richmond ranked top four in the League for territory indicators including inside-50 differential, time in forward-half differential and the underrated stat of handball metres gained. From round seven onwards, the Tigers rank No.2 for inside-50 differential (+14.1), No.1 for time in forward-half differential (+11.57 minutes) and No.1 for handball metres gained (390.8m).


TERRITORY201720192020Rd 7-14, 2022
Inside-50 diff.#4#3#2#2
Time in fwd-half diff.#3#4#1#1
Handball metres gained#1#1#1#1

In each of its three premiership seasons, Richmond has also ranked top five in the AFL for scoring indicators including scores from turnover differential, forward-half possession gains and scores from forward-half possession gains. In their past eight matches, the Tigers rank No.1 in all three categories.

They also rank No.1 for points scored in that same time period (104.7 points per game) and No.5 for scores per inside-50 entry (44.4 per cent), significantly improved numbers even when compared with their trio of premiership seasons.


SCORING201720192020Rd 7-14, 2022
Scores from turnover diff.#5#2#1#1
Fwd-half possession gain#2#3#2#1
Scores from fwd-half possession gain#5#2#5#1

Then there's crucial defensive indicators including intercept marks and scores against per inside-50 entry, in which Richmond ranked top three in the League in two of three premiership seasons. This year, in its past eight games, it ranks No.2 for intercept marks (18.4) and No.6 for scores against per inside-50 entry (40.6 per cent).

DEFENCE201720192020Rd 7-14, 2022
Intercept marks#3#7#2#2
Scores against per inside-50 %#1#2#6#6

But there are also areas of Richmond's game, which weren't necessarily a strength of the Tigers throughout their recent premiership campaigns, that have drastically improved during the current season and in the past eight weeks in particular.

Not a proven ball-winning team – particularly in 2019 when the side ranked bottom four in the League for disposal differential, contested possession differential and clearance differential – Richmond has grown considerably in those areas throughout this year.

Led by Dion Prestia, since round seven the Tigers have ranked No.5 in the AFL for disposal differential (+14.4), No.6 for contested possession differential (+5.9), No.6 for uncontested possession differential (+7.9) and No.5 for clearance differential (+3.0). Never has that been more important than in their last game, when they overwhelmed the Blues' star-studded midfield on their way to another victory.



 
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tora

Tiger Rookie
Dec 10, 2021
206
198
63
Had tests with Port, who were on a roll and Carlton. Came through with wins for one, tried Clarke, picked up a couple of injuries which will now make Geelong a bigger test. Miller in good form. I hope he steps up, and Dusty a big IN. He needs a run. Edwards late goal was encouraging. That he could have an impact late.
 
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tigertime2

Our cup runneth over!
Mar 22, 2008
3,990
584
We can still lose this week and finish top 4. Our draw is opening right up.

We are coming, we don't have the magic yet but you can feel it. Who will be the surprise player this year? Sonsie, Bauer or maybe Stack? Or maybe the King of September has one more mountain to conquer?

We can finish top 4 then mount the charge!!
This could be the best of them all.
 
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Carter

Tiger Legend
Nov 14, 2012
7,463
4,035
There were minutes against the blues when we looked imperious.

Mint.

Clubs knows we’re into something special and I can’t see us falling away like we did last year.
 
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Carter

Tiger Legend
Nov 14, 2012
7,463
4,035
Good to see we are still living rent free in Geelong’s collective head.

Danger back this week a coincidence? I think not.

Chris Scott loves tying himself into knots trying to appear complimentary about us but not giving us anything. Anything.

He’s a babbling trauma victim.

Fact is we could get belted by ten goals against this mob, still make top four, and still beat Geelong in a PF.

No one is more aware of that, deep in their soul, than the Geelong head coach.
 
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Dyer'ere

Licensed to kazoo
Sep 21, 2004
17,998
3,700
Interesting week.

R15? It really matters.

The Baners have a thin list. Hipwood off a knee. Rainer off a knee. Zorko old and now absent. Bailey out. Brisbane thin and on the road. And within this context we interpret the Melbourne domination and the freshness and explosive fitness of Melbourne.

After the bye we had to see freshness and explosiveness from Melbourne. We did. Did any of the youth level up? Bedford did. Was that an accidental restructure? Sparrow didn't get enough ball but he had hurt.

Cruciallly, Petrarca still cannot kick long. But he has a half yard and a step. Oh. Soundness and explosiveness after the bye.

And Jackson may have been initially intimidated by a fine VFA ruck, but he fought back, and played a perfect ruck/running mid game. Jackson was terrifying a level below AFL. And IMO, terrifying anyway.

Melbourne? $1.85 for the flag at best. You can get $2.80. (Form after the bye is everything.)

Melbourne is the team to beat. Hang on. You don't suppose Mr Damien Hardwick is benchmarking off them, do you? Fancy that.

He's done that for months. 25 June 2022 - Hardwick saw how wrong he'd been.

The current market (AFL Premiership) can hold for at most one more week.