Umpire farce - Getting worse by the minute!

[gold1]

Bet we win the free k8ck count this week so the story will die with no traction

Remember even if we win the free kick count the many missed throws by the dogs will still have them ahead.

 

[eddazol]

We are always so far behind in the free kick count and then they try gives us a few frees at the end when the game is over. Still doesn’t even it up.

 

[RoarEmotion]

I think if we actually want a real analysis done of what is going on we need to collect way better data than 'free kick differential' It's a pretty strong lead indicator, but its just way too general to say 'the AFL' is screwing us.

There are probably enough supporters to crowd source something that is more useful and targetted.

My hypothesis is there are a few things going on

1. We have players that give away above average free kicks due to poor technique and/or emotional control and/or just dumb decision making. (The TBR argument)
2. There are specific umpires that for whatever reason pay Richmond less free kicks than other teams and/or are happy to pay 50m that are marginal at best (the tin foil hat argument)
3. When a game is decided, umpires become very neutral and unbiased so frees can level up late when there is no impact to the result (the fan in the outer argument)
4. The impact of free we give away tends to lead to more scoring shots against than the free kicks we receive (as a percentage) (i.e. we are getting them where it has low scoreboard impact relative to our opposition) (the Curnow gets frees that Lynch and Riewoldt never get argument)

But this is speculation, we'd need to firstly show some data that does this. And that just isn't data that is available to the public in a way you can go and interrogate.

My thought is for every game between 2017 Round 1 and now for Richmond (and really you'd want to do it for WB or Collingwood too as the 'high' outliers)

For every free kick recorded

- the type of free kick (out of bounds on full needs to be excluded from the stats as it is probably the most objective black/white free kick that is left)
- which umpire paid it
- who received it
- who gave it away
- the time in the game
- the score in the game
- if there was a 50m
- if the free kick or 50m lead to a direct shot at goal (whether OOB, behind or goal is irrelevant) or a second possession shot at goal (i.e. disposal to someone else who has a shot at goal)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was paid) and had the ball / marked the ball anyway (i.e. the free didn't make any difference at all) (this would be a little subjective)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was not paid - so the free kick became a penalty) (again a little subjective)

Super subjective is folks could record or make note of 'free kicks' missed for either side, but this is patently biased coming from a Richmond supporter - so this would need to get dealt with properly later...

This should allow the above hypothesis to start to be looked at (for Richmond games) with just maths.

This could then be fed to Richmond to do something with behind closed doors, or to the media. Personally I think you just make the database publically available for all supporters to analyse.

e.g. if you came out with 4 umpires are responsible for 75% of the free kick differential Richmond has experienced, its a massive story. If every umpire is the same and just slightly against us, then won't be as compelling. Maybe it will just show that Nank, Vlaustin, Pickett and Bolton just give away too many dumb frees.

The next steps would be for the outlier games involving the umpires who statistically show to be massively biased, you get a neutral party to go through those games and look at what free kicks those umpires paid and DIDN'T pay. There will be glaring inconsistencies that become a very obvious trend vs what happens in the week to week move onto the next story world of AFL.

Somehow there needs to be accountability applied to whichever group of umpires is feeding this discrepancy and then to the supervision/processes that allow this to go unchecked (if it is backed up factually and independently)

I think collecting the data could take 5 hours a game so thats 7 years * ~22ish games = 770 hours of data recording, and then some analysis - which could be pretty quick to start with to pull out umpire and player stats. It could also show nothing and just I'm wearing a Curtis Deboy tin foil hat protector.

Any interest out there to crowdsource such an effort? Thoughts? Volunteers? (and no you can't just pick 2017, 19, 20 final series)

I'd probably reach out to some of the fan podcasts if enough folks think this is a worthwhile endeavor to promote a crowd sourced way to enter the data and would probably need some help on how to set up such a database.

 

[Quickdraw]

I think if we actually want a real analysis done of what is going on we need to collect way better data than 'free kick differential' It's a pretty strong lead indicator, but its just way too general to say 'the AFL' is screwing us.

There are probably enough supporters to crowd source something that is more useful and targetted.

My hypothesis is there are a few things going on

1. We have players that give away above average free kicks due to poor technique and/or emotional control and/or just dumb decision making. (The TBR argument)
2. There are specific umpires that for whatever reason pay Richmond less free kicks than other teams and/or are happy to pay 50m that are marginal at best (the tin foil hat argument)
3. When a game is decided, umpires become very neutral and unbiased so frees can level up late when there is no impact to the result (the fan in the outer argument)
4. The impact of free we give away tends to lead to more scoring shots against than the free kicks we receive (as a percentage) (i.e. we are getting them where it has low scoreboard impact relative to our opposition) (the Curnow gets frees that Lynch and Riewoldt never get argument)

But this is speculation, we'd need to firstly show some data that does this. And that just isn't data that is available to the public in a way you can go and interrogate.

My thought is for every game between 2017 Round 1 and now for Richmond (and really you'd want to do it for WB or Collingwood too as the 'high' outliers)

For every free kick recorded

- the type of free kick (out of bounds on full needs to be excluded from the stats as it is probably the most objective black/white free kick that is left)
- which umpire paid it
- who received it
- who gave it away
- the time in the game
- the score in the game
- if there was a 50m
- if the free kick or 50m lead to a direct shot at goal (whether OOB, behind or goal is irrelevant) or a second possession shot at goal (i.e. disposal to someone else who has a shot at goal)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was paid) and had the ball / marked the ball anyway (i.e. the free didn't make any difference at all) (this would be a little subjective)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was not paid - so the free kick became a penalty) (again a little subjective)

Super subjective is folks could record or make note of 'free kicks' missed for either side, but this is patently biased coming from a Richmond supporter - so this would need to get dealt with properly later...

This should allow the above hypothesis to start to be looked at (for Richmond games) with just maths.

This could then be fed to Richmond to do something with behind closed doors, or to the media. Personally I think you just make the database publically available for all supporters to analyse.

e.g. if you came out with 4 umpires are responsible for 75% of the free kick differential Richmond has experienced, its a massive story. If every umpire is the same and just slightly against us, then won't be as compelling. Maybe it will just show that Nank, Vlaustin, Pickett and Bolton just give away too many dumb frees.

The next steps would be for the outlier games involving the umpires who statistically show to be massively biased, you get a neutral party to go through those games and look at what free kicks those umpires paid and DIDN'T pay. There will be glaring inconsistencies that become a very obvious trend vs what happens in the week to week move onto the next story world of AFL.

Somehow there needs to be accountability applied to whichever group of umpires is feeding this discrepancy and then to the supervision/processes that allow this to go unchecked (if it is backed up factually and independently)

I think collecting the data could take 5 hours a game so thats 7 years * ~22ish games = 770 hours of data recording, and then some analysis - which could be pretty quick to start with to pull out umpire and player stats. It could also show nothing and just I'm wearing a Curtis Deboy tin foil hat protector.

Any interest out there to crowdsource such an effort? Thoughts? Volunteers? (and no you can't just pick 2017, 19, 20 final series)

I'd probably reach out to some of the fan podcasts if enough folks think this is a worthwhile endeavor to promote a crowd sourced way to enter the data and would probably need some help on how to set up such a database.

I like your way of thinking, RE.
Might be difficult to get that level of granularity. I often have trouble knowing which umpire is paying the free kick.

It makes me wonder whether the data exists.
Would it be buried in Champion Data's reams?
If so, could it be purchased for a "tertiary study"?

 

[Sintiger]

I think if we actually want a real analysis done of what is going on we need to collect way better data than 'free kick differential' It's a pretty strong lead indicator, but its just way too general to say 'the AFL' is screwing us.

There are probably enough supporters to crowd source something that is more useful and targetted.

My hypothesis is there are a few things going on

1. We have players that give away above average free kicks due to poor technique and/or emotional control and/or just dumb decision making. (The TBR argument)
2. There are specific umpires that for whatever reason pay Richmond less free kicks than other teams and/or are happy to pay 50m that are marginal at best (the tin foil hat argument)
3. When a game is decided, umpires become very neutral and unbiased so frees can level up late when there is no impact to the result (the fan in the outer argument)
4. The impact of free we give away tends to lead to more scoring shots against than the free kicks we receive (as a percentage) (i.e. we are getting them where it has low scoreboard impact relative to our opposition) (the Curnow gets frees that Lynch and Riewoldt never get argument)

But this is speculation, we'd need to firstly show some data that does this. And that just isn't data that is available to the public in a way you can go and interrogate.

My thought is for every game between 2017 Round 1 and now for Richmond (and really you'd want to do it for WB or Collingwood too as the 'high' outliers)

For every free kick recorded

- the type of free kick (out of bounds on full needs to be excluded from the stats as it is probably the most objective black/white free kick that is left)
- which umpire paid it
- who received it
- who gave it away
- the time in the game
- the score in the game
- if there was a 50m
- if the free kick or 50m lead to a direct shot at goal (whether OOB, behind or goal is irrelevant) or a second possession shot at goal (i.e. disposal to someone else who has a shot at goal)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was paid) and had the ball / marked the ball anyway (i.e. the free didn't make any difference at all) (this would be a little subjective)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was not paid - so the free kick became a penalty) (again a little subjective)

Super subjective is folks could record or make note of 'free kicks' missed for either side, but this is patently biased coming from a Richmond supporter - so this would need to get dealt with properly later...

This should allow the above hypothesis to start to be looked at (for Richmond games) with just maths.

This could then be fed to Richmond to do something with behind closed doors, or to the media. Personally I think you just make the database publically available for all supporters to analyse.

e.g. if you came out with 4 umpires are responsible for 75% of the free kick differential Richmond has experienced, its a massive story. If every umpire is the same and just slightly against us, then won't be as compelling. Maybe it will just show that Nank, Vlaustin, Pickett and Bolton just give away too many dumb frees.

The next steps would be for the outlier games involving the umpires who statistically show to be massively biased, you get a neutral party to go through those games and look at what free kicks those umpires paid and DIDN'T pay. There will be glaring inconsistencies that become a very obvious trend vs what happens in the week to week move onto the next story world of AFL.

Somehow there needs to be accountability applied to whichever group of umpires is feeding this discrepancy and then to the supervision/processes that allow this to go unchecked (if it is backed up factually and independently)

I think collecting the data could take 5 hours a game so thats 7 years * ~22ish games = 770 hours of data recording, and then some analysis - which could be pretty quick to start with to pull out umpire and player stats. It could also show nothing and just I'm wearing a Curtis Deboy tin foil hat protector.

Any interest out there to crowdsource such an effort? Thoughts? Volunteers? (and no you can't just pick 2017, 19, 20 final series)

I'd probably reach out to some of the fan podcasts if enough folks think this is a worthwhile endeavor to promote a crowd sourced way to enter the data and would probably need some help on how to set up such a database.

Would be interesting

Maybe we should get tapes of every Richmond game since 2017 and watch them again. 50 of us could gather at the Maurice Rioli Club and watch them back to back and record all the necessary information. I've worked out that it would be about 17 days of footy watching 24 hours a day

 

[CarnTheTiges]

There’s merit to what RE suggests, although the expenditure of effort would possibly outweigh the benefits. The AFL would come up with some *smile* explanation or sweep it under the carpet to be never spoken of again. It’s at times like this we miss Ron and his stats wizardry.

 

[tigermouseau]

I posted this in the game day thread:
The siren goes, the whistle sounds, Dow looks at the ump who has his hand raised for half time, Dow drops the ball. Ump pays 50.

Technically there, bu5 no common sense rule applied

In the 3rd, Freo player runs the ball out of bounds, deliberate is paid. Freo player tosses the ball to the boundary umpire. No 50 paid.

Technically there, but common sense rule applied.

A couple of years ago i remember Broad (i think)running with the ball in the backline, slipping, getting tackled, the ball touching the ground, then Broad handballing- holding the ball was paid cos the ball touched the ground whilst he was tackled. The same thing happened yesterday to a freo player- no free.

Technically there, but no common sense rule applied.

It never ceases to astound me how these frees- like the Broad rushed point earlier this year- are plucked from nowhere very rarely, but that rarely always seems to be against us.

Umpires like the game to be about them and highlight how they know all the rules, even th3 obscure ones. The broad one however, the afl should’ve come out and said that was an incorrect decision, but crickets from the afl.

 

[RoarEmotion]

There’s merit to what RE suggests, although the expenditure of effort would possibly outweigh the benefits. The AFL would come up with some *smile* explanation or sweep it under the carpet to be never spoken of again. It’s at times like this we miss Ron and his stats wizardry.

There is currently no accountability on individual umpires that at least the public is aware of. (Other than the goal umpire that got blamed for Adelaide missing out)

Once you know you are being watched and assessments are being made then it probably changes how you behave.

This is why I would say you release the database into the public.

 

[tigermouseau]

My wife asked me recently "why don't you go to the footy as much as you used to". My reply was something along the lines of :
"I'm sick of going to a game & watching my team being umpired differently to the opposition, I'm sick of them shafting us week in week out. I'm sick of being angry at our treatment at the end of a game. I’ve had enough of the AFL shafting us as much as they can. I'm not enjoying footy like I used to. Thats why".

I nearly went to Sundays game but am so glad I didn’t for exactly the reasons you mention.

I love footy, but I hate the AFL & their shoddy treatment of the everyday supporters, I have trouble even watching a full game on TV because of the terrible umpiring & commentary by most of the "commentators". The game itself has evolved into a game of "basketball" with an oval ball, due to the myriad of unnecessary rule changes, & interpretations. My God, it used to be the best game in the world. It’s so far away from that now.
I love the Tigers, but I despise the AFL & what they've to OUR game.

Ditto. Not only what afl have done to the game but also the admin of ticketing, and fully ticketed games. Went to the Melbourne game and couldn’t buy a seat on level one of AFL members. Have a look at the replay, nearly a whole bay empty and plenty of others vacant also. I actually asked an AFL employee if I could sit on level one and she said no they were all pre booked. I asked her why the reserved signs they usually put in back of seats weren’t displayed she replied “not my problem”.

I just wish that the media puppets would grow some kahunas & call the AFL out on their arrogant treatment of supporters & the game itself.

They just laughed when we there was a bad decision or didn’t even mention the bad decision. It was disgraceful.

But they won't, because they'd be kicked off the gravy train that sustains them & their fat cat bosses.

Oh & I'm not sure if it's obvious, but I hate the AFL.

Yep, it was a wee bit obvious and you are def not on your own. I loathe them.

 

[TigerMasochist]

I think if we actually want a real analysis done of what is going on we need to collect way better data than 'free kick differential' It's a pretty strong lead indicator, but its just way too general to say 'the AFL' is screwing us.

There are probably enough supporters to crowd source something that is more useful and targetted.

My hypothesis is there are a few things going on

1. We have players that give away above average free kicks due to poor technique and/or emotional control and/or just dumb decision making. (The TBR argument)
2. There are specific umpires that for whatever reason pay Richmond less free kicks than other teams and/or are happy to pay 50m that are marginal at best (the tin foil hat argument)
3. When a game is decided, umpires become very neutral and unbiased so frees can level up late when there is no impact to the result (the fan in the outer argument)
4. The impact of free we give away tends to lead to more scoring shots against than the free kicks we receive (as a percentage) (i.e. we are getting them where it has low scoreboard impact relative to our opposition) (the Curnow gets frees that Lynch and Riewoldt never get argument)

But this is speculation, we'd need to firstly show some data that does this. And that just isn't data that is available to the public in a way you can go and interrogate.

My thought is for every game between 2017 Round 1 and now for Richmond (and really you'd want to do it for WB or Collingwood too as the 'high' outliers)

For every free kick recorded

- the type of free kick (out of bounds on full needs to be excluded from the stats as it is probably the most objective black/white free kick that is left)
- which umpire paid it
- who received it
- who gave it away
- the time in the game
- the score in the game
- if there was a 50m
- if the free kick or 50m lead to a direct shot at goal (whether OOB, behind or goal is irrelevant) or a second possession shot at goal (i.e. disposal to someone else who has a shot at goal)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was paid) and had the ball / marked the ball anyway (i.e. the free didn't make any difference at all) (this would be a little subjective)
- if the team receiving the free kick was already in clear space (and advantage was not paid - so the free kick became a penalty) (again a little subjective)

Super subjective is folks could record or make note of 'free kicks' missed for either side, but this is patently biased coming from a Richmond supporter - so this would need to get dealt with properly later...

This should allow the above hypothesis to start to be looked at (for Richmond games) with just maths.

This could then be fed to Richmond to do something with behind closed doors, or to the media. Personally I think you just make the database publically available for all supporters to analyse.

e.g. if you came out with 4 umpires are responsible for 75% of the free kick differential Richmond has experienced, its a massive story. If every umpire is the same and just slightly against us, then won't be as compelling. Maybe it will just show that Nank, Vlaustin, Pickett and Bolton just give away too many dumb frees.

The next steps would be for the outlier games involving the umpires who statistically show to be massively biased, you get a neutral party to go through those games and look at what free kicks those umpires paid and DIDN'T pay. There will be glaring inconsistencies that become a very obvious trend vs what happens in the week to week move onto the next story world of AFL.

Somehow there needs to be accountability applied to whichever group of umpires is feeding this discrepancy and then to the supervision/processes that allow this to go unchecked (if it is backed up factually and independently)

I think collecting the data could take 5 hours a game so thats 7 years * ~22ish games = 770 hours of data recording, and then some analysis - which could be pretty quick to start with to pull out umpire and player stats. It could also show nothing and just I'm wearing a Curtis Deboy tin foil hat protector.

Any interest out there to crowdsource such an effort? Thoughts? Volunteers? (and no you can't just pick 2017, 19, 20 final series)

I'd probably reach out to some of the fan podcasts if enough folks think this is a worthwhile endeavor to promote a crowd sourced way to enter the data and would probably need some help on how to set up such a database.

Wouldn't Champion Data already have all that detail tucked away in their computer bank? They've got every other stat on the game available to all clubs n coaching depts, surely the free kick data would be there as well.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Would be interesting

Maybe we should get tapes of every Richmond game since 2017 and watch them again. 50 of us could gather at the Maurice Rioli Club and watch them back to back and record all the necessary information. I've worked out that it would be about 17 days of footy watching 24 hours a day

Just gunna get a bunch of people sitting around consuming schooners n abusing the umpys all over again.

 

[Quickdraw]

Wouldn't Champion Data already have all that detail tucked away in their computer bank? They've got every other stat on the game available to all clubs n coaching depts, surely the free kick data would be there as well.

That was my thinking, TM. Then we'd a stats wiz to analyse it.

 

[tigermouseau]

Bet we win the free k8ck count this week so the story will die with no traction

Nah, it will just anger the afl more. IIRC Benny and maybe Peggy had a go at afl years ago, and it’s been downhill ever since. The “unrealistic” requests from our players in the Hub during 2020 season further riled the afl and it’s been downhill even faster since then. It is just a dog’s breakfast at afl house.

 

[tigertim]

Umpires like the game to be about them and highlight how they know all the rules, even th3 obscure ones.

This is true. You notice how when it’s an everyday free kick they just blow the whistle and say “too high” but if it’s a technical or controversial one they sprint with the excitement showing downstairs and theatrically announce the free.

 

[MD Jazz]

If Adelaide supported us on the farc decision then maybe they play finals last year.

Great point RE. If other sides extended their vision and shown a bit of leadership at the time there may have been more discussion about that farcical decision & process and Adelaide may very well have played finals.

How can the countries biggest sporting organisation get it so wrong 2 years in a row? Perhaps if they spent less money on PR spin and invested more on getting decisions right in the game we wouldn't have so much fan anger/confusion.

 

[Baloo]

It makes me wonder whether the data exists.
Would it be buried in Champion Data's reams?
If so, could it be purchased for a "tertiary study"?

Champion Data would have stats on nearly everything. Only a small sample is released publicly. Clubs get more detailed data. Now that CD is AFL owned, I doubt they would sell you data that they don't want released, no matter how much you're willing to pay. One of our regulars, @fudge, used to work at CD, maybe still does.

A stat I would like to see if the freekick differential per club, per umpire. I'm sure CD have that but I don't even the clubs get to see that stat.

 

[RoarEmotion]

A stat I would like to see if the freekick differential per club, per umpire. I'm sure CD have that but I don't even the clubs get to see that stat.

Yep that is specifically the data I’d like to generate via crowd sourcing. And then throw the fliers from the rooftops.

I had emailed the club to do it.

 

[TigerMasochist]

This is true. You notice how when it’s an everyday free kick they just blow the whistle and say “too high” but if it’s a technical or controversial one they sprint with the excitement showing downstairs and theatrically announce the free.

Aaaarrgh! Now my brain hurts. Just suffered a mental vision of Rayzor chubbin up in his baggy shorts while giving his whistle a blow ...

 

[TT33]

Just gunna get a bunch of people sitting around consuming schooners n abusing the umpys all over again.

Yeah, but we'd all be in agreement (apart TBR if he could make it)

 

[Ralphie]

If you haven't seen it there is a stack of data on this twitter ACC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668205143261876224