Bill James said:Ultimately the main reaons is Hawthorn kick more goals than their direct opponents more often. However there are a couple of stats that are symptomatic of why.
CONTESTED POSESSIONS
Hawthorn ranks 18th for CP differential vs their direct opponent. On average they have 15 less CP's than their opponents.
On our side Hardwick is obsessed with winning the CP count.
ONE PERCENTERS (spoils, smothers, shepherds and knock-ons)
Hawthorn ranks 1st for 1%er differential vs their direct opponent. They average 11 more 1%ers than their opponent.
Richmond ranks 18th for 1%er differential vs direct opponents. We average 7 fewer 1%ers than our opponent.
Personally I think these stats are related. You can choose to take a contested ball which might work but probably results in a stoppage or worse a free against, or you can choose to knock on and keep the team moving. Clearly Hawthorn is more willing to knock the ball onto advantage than take a dodgy contested possession.
There is a difference between winning a contest (good) and creating contests (bad). Surely it is obvious that hitting someone on his own inside 50 is a better avenue to goal than kicking to a contest.
i think the top 9 on the contested ball ladder fill the top 10 spots on the ladder. the hawks are an outlier.
there is merit is the 2nd stat though. the hawks dont put as much emphasis on winning the ball as winning the ball back.
i do reckon though come the GF the hawks will be going all out to win the ball when it is in dispute, and from memory the stats show the hawks have won CB in the last 3 GF's. when the ball needs to be won they win it.