Which players are Improvers, Stagnants or Decliners - 2024 > 2023

[Merveille]

Compared to 2023, I believe we will have more than several 'improvers' (19) , several 'stagnant' (14) which can be stagnant at a high level or crap level, and very few 'decliners'.. (1) when last year we had Jack and Cotch heading the decliner list..

The following is based on the injury Gods and the improvement that will align with that.

Improvers

Vlaustiin - could have been a 'stagnant' as 2023 was good quality. But think the new coach and renewed hunger will drive him to past AA levels and he will have 10-15% to give (he was AA wasn't he)

Prestia - also solid in 2023 but we know he can play better. More importantly he knows it, and he knows time is running out if he wants another one - 10%

Dusty - no real need for explanation here. Off a highish 2023, but a better prep and some similarity to Prestia with motivation - 15%

MJR Rioli - off a low level will be better surely - 10%

Jayden Short - solid 2023 but missed games and also played mid early on with minimal impact, definite room for more consistent output (have they nominated core leaders yet? 15%

Josh Gibcus - 100%!!

Tom Lynch - 90%!

Jacob Hopper - 40% - going well by reports and Caesar reports, doing everything and simply has to improve. Quality bloke that will be super motivated to produce for this club and his mate Timmy - 35%

Judson Clarke - light kid. Still recall him putting on the jets one day with ball in hand with a fast Opponent 3 metres from him and he had 3 bounces. Natural improvement is likely with age as he mans up - 10-15%

Toby Nank - thought he was serviceable to good in 2023 (in games played and a solid output in games, but luck with his body and renewed discipline means improvement - 10-15%

Coulthard - has to improve with experience and a pre-season surely - 15%

T Dow - possibly lucky to be here but by reports, and the way he finished the year, and with Yze on board - very possibly an improver and because he has barely played any senior games - 17 - and is only 22 - I give 15%

Tom Brown - I really like this player, really like him. Such composure and poise, tall and small - I will make a call - can be better than Broady. Better kick and could be a better mark - 70%

Samson Ryan - see Jud Clarke. HAs some tools and a good attitude - 10-15%

Cumbo - it' all there for everyone to see. Opportunity and confidence and belief - he needs all that and if it arrives then bang. Forwards that create and make things happen are just too hard to find. Opposition would always be concerned about him and he can turn matches - that makes him valuable - 30%

Sonsie - off a low 2023 have to back him in for improvement on reports so far - 15%

Banks - gifted player who moves so well and kicks it well, and with added strength and maturity has to be up curve - 15%

Seth Campbell - off a low base and by reports has to be an improve with average luck - may still be a 2's player but will be an improved 2's player - 70%

Tylar Young - like so many has to have an upward curve - this bloke is amazing, started playing footy at 18??? So simply has to progress with experience. Look out f he starts marking the ball - 10-15%


Stagnants

Grimes - gritted teeth. Could be a decliner but I am backing him in to at least match what was at times a disappointing 2023 - could also be an improver so hard to gauge

Jack Ross - ditto Grimesy, hard to assess. As a wingman I think he will likely match his output from 2023. As a mid I would place him in the improvers category. Stagnant for now but I like him

Bakes - lock him in for another top season. Possibly an improver but coming off higher levels. Where will Yze play him?

Taranto - what can you say, will leave as a stagnant off a very high level

Hugo - think he is in for not of 2's footy as hopefully we are stronger and I am to sure he can improve

Dan Rioli - see Bakes. I know he is great at half back but would love to see him pinch hit forward as well just to reminisce

Noah Balta - see Bakes and Dan Rioli - having this quality in the 'Stagnant' shows our list is not too bad. Who knows where this bloke could get to, could be an improver but I am being conservative

Shai Bolton - see Bakes and others. Off a high level, could easily be an 'improver' and a tad quiet earlier in year 2023 - what potential this team has if everything clicks for the year

Ryan Mansell - gives his all and has great attitudes - I don't think he can improve much though and have him mainly in the 2's and as a reliable stagnant depth player

Jack Graham - what about the quality in here. Could easily be an improver but will settle for injury free stagnant and his usual reliable team-oriented iutput

Broad - same as above - Mr Consistency and Mr Reliable may have hit his ceiling but they are 12 foot ceilings

Jacob Bauer - probably should be an 'Improver' as well, but I just a bit concerned he may turn out to be an 'Inbetweener'. Hope I am wrong, and where the hell does he play? Will at least match his 2023 without a doubt, really the only other way is Up barring injury

Ben Miller - this bloke is an enigma. Not sure has the improvement in him, been in the system a while. A very handy stagnant depth player at the very least

Marlion Pickett - considered Decline but had a re-think. Only 32, is wiry a La Michael Tuck, sinewy and hard as cat's head. Also played a foreign role for the team last year as pressure defensive forward, when he was our best player early in the year on a wing, or was that 2022?


Decliners

K MAc - sorry K Mac - had to put someone in here. I saw signs last year on a more regular basis that things may be going the wrong way. A player that has relied so much on an amazing work-load. I think the decline could come soon, but hopefully not


Conclusion

Have left off new recruits, plus Steely, Mate and Tresize (Tresize could easily be an improver)

I have 19 improvers, and several in the stagnant that could also improve. Barring injuries - I don't see the decliners on the list for at least another few years..

So I just cannot see how the pundits can have us down the bottom.
We have so much upside - people are in for a rude shock, they are going to HATE it that we don't implode and push into the top 4 again..

We simply have to rise...

Interested to know if others have more decliners..

 

[ceehook2]

.........

We simply have to rise...

Interested to know if others have more decliners..

lol we could well improve off the back of a roller coaster season

but the opposition can also improve and we go nowhere

most likely North , West Coast & Freo won't be in a position to over take us

then the remaining teams are all hopeful of improving in 2024

do like your off season work thou Merv

I'm a believer we haven't got the best out of Baker , I reckon when he gets involved we grow a leg ,
that is possibly due to match ups or roles given and that ebb and flow could often be a result of opposition moves
with three new coaches in it will be interesting to see how they use him

not dissimilar with Marlion , when he has looked good for us its been as an oulet from defense
he has clunked contested marks or marks under serious pressure in clutch moments and his disposal from that is usually pretty solid
Marlion as a forward was a fail for me , again I can see the scenario where the new coaches get the best out of him

my slider , off the back of Caesar reports and with a heavy heart , will be MJR
what might work for Maurice is if he believes his opportunity has past him and he relaxes a little

our seasoned players know how to get it done at level and barring injury should be able to make their presence felt again to varying levels

us spectators have the nervous wait to see how season 2024 unfolds for the young brigade , each one has some level of promise
even Mate is raising eye brows in the preseason, with his body right and more time in the system he might be ready to show us and the world

 

[Merveille]

lol we could well improve off the back of a roller coaster season

but the opposition can also improve and we go nowhere

most likely North , West Coast & Freo won't be in a position to over take us

then the remaining teams are all hopeful of improving in 2024

do like your off season work thou Merv

I'm a believer we haven't got the best out of Baker , I reckon when he gets involved we grow a leg ,
that is possibly due to match ups or roles given and that ebb and flow could often be a result of opposition moves
with three new coaches in it will be interesting to see how they use him

not dissimilar with Marlion , when he has looked good for us its been as an oulet from defense
he has clunked contested marks or marks under serious pressure in clutch moments and his disposal from that is usually pretty solid
Marlion as a forward was a fail for me , again I can see the scenario where the new coaches get the best out of him

my slider , off the back of Caesar reports and with a heavy heart , will be MJR
what might work for Maurice is if he believes his opportunity has past him and he relaxes a little

our seasoned players know how to get it done at level and barring injury should be able to make their presence felt again to varying levels

us spectators have the nervous wait to see how season 2024 unfolds for the young brigade , each one has some level of promise
even Mate is raising eye brows in the preseason, with his body right and more time in the system he might be ready to show us and the world

Agree. I had no idea what to write about Mate - 7 ft and can run like he apparently does, both speed and endurance.. Once again all about no injuries and continuity of games to get a real look

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

I was all chips in with Miller last year and I lost the house.
This year I'm all chips in with Cumberland.
With Hardwick not there to play with his head anymore. And hopefully now Yze will give him more time and love. He will become a 25-35 goal kicker for us

 

[mrposhman]

I've looked at it slightly different and more who were our Best 23 in 2023 (based on games played) and the upside we have for others now going forward. Positional changes for some of the boys are going to be fascinating this year as I feel there are a number of kids that can and will step up this year whilst for several others I expect it to be a largely VFL year but with upside to come on many of them.

So last years Best 23 is below, with current age then games played in 2023 in brackets.

B - Young (25 - 19), Balta (24 - 23), Grimes (32 - 22)
HB - Short (27 - 16), Vlastuin (29 - 21), DRioli (26 - 23)
C - Ross (23 - 19), Hopper (26 - 16), McIntosh (29 - 22)
HF - Martin (32 - 20), Ryan (23 -14), Bolton (25 - 23)
F - Baker (25 -23), Riewoldt (35 -21), Pickett (32 -21)
R - Nank (29 -15), Taranto (25 -23), Prestia (31 -20)
I/C - Cotchin (33 - 19), Broad (30 -19), Graham (25 -20), Mansell (23 -14)
Sub Ralph-Smith (22 -13)

Of the make up in that group, those that are still 25 and under we have 10, those "in their prime years of 26-28" we have only 3 and we have 10 that are 29+.

We have a few that would move into the 26-28 group through the year (Baker, Bolton, Taranto, Young, Graham) further reducing that 25 and under group but I expect our 29+ group to have a significant change this year.

We've already lost 2 of that group (Jack and Cotch) and with the others being Grimes, Kmac, Pickett, Prestia (these 4 are most under pressure IMO), as I don't think Nank, Vlastuin, Broad or Martin will be seeing much of a drop off in form this year, in fact I think a few can still improve their form from 2023 a little.

I think positional changes will be very interesting this year:
- Does Balta play forward - if so you'd expect Gibcus to play the full year down back
- Where does Baker get played? Does he replace Cotch in the mid / fwd mix, if so that creates options for Campbell, Clarke, Coulthard maybe even McAuliffe as a small forward as his speed is good
- Who plays on the opposite wing to Ross? Does Kmac retain his spot? Does Pickett head back there or do we look to the future? If to the future you'd expect Banks and Brown to be at the front of the queue, if Brown possibly with a positional change for 1 of the half backs, either Rioli or Short.

Lynch is obviously a huge recruit if fit, but then there are the others like Dow, Kosi, Naismith and Sonsie. How do they affect the mix.

I think of our squad only the following will not really affect the AFL side in 2024 with several of them developing their games in the 2's. I don't see Bauer, Colina, Fawcett, Green, Hayes-Brown, Miller, MRJ, Smith or Tresize really affecting the 1's next year but I'm expecting good progression from several of them. If 1 or 2 out of these affect the 1's then its probably due to form and I'd think Smith and Tresize are the most likely. I also expect Ryan and HRS to develop their games in the 2's.

Its a transitional time period for us, and an exciting one IMO. One which I don't think any media commentator has really analysed, but we have some quality on our list that can come in and replace some of those players above in our 2023 Best 23, and set us up for a move forward over the coming years. I'm confident that several of our kids will step up in 2024 and change the dynamic of our Best 23 age list wise. Potentially we could drop from 10 players 29+ in our best 23 to maybe 4 or 5 by the end of the year.

 

[Tigers of Old]

My sense is our backline is going to look very different by years end. I expect some of our stalwarts to have a tough year.

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

My sense is our backline is going to look very different by years end. I expect some of our stalwarts to have a tough year.

Balta foward will be a disaster

 

[Tigers of Old]

Balta foward will be a disaster

I'm not confident either but prepared to give it a go..

 

[Merveille]

I've looked at it slightly different and more who were our Best 23 in 2023 (based on games played) and the upside we have for others now going forward. Positional changes for some of the boys are going to be fascinating this year as I feel there are a number of kids that can and will step up this year whilst for several others I expect it to be a largely VFL year but with upside to come on many of them.

So last years Best 23 is below, with current age then games played in 2023 in brackets.

B - Young (25 - 19), Balta (24 - 23), Grimes (32 - 22)
HB - Short (27 - 16), Vlastuin (29 - 21), DRioli (26 - 23)
C - Ross (23 - 19), Hopper (26 - 16), McIntosh (29 - 22)
HF - Martin (32 - 20), Ryan (23 -14), Bolton (25 - 23)
F - Baker (25 -23), Riewoldt (35 -21), Pickett (32 -21)
R - Nank (29 -15), Taranto (25 -23), Prestia (31 -20)
I/C - Cotchin (33 - 19), Broad (30 -19), Graham (25 -20), Mansell (23 -14)
Sub Ralph-Smith (22 -13)

Of the make up in that group, those that are still 25 and under we have 10, those "in their prime years of 26-28" we have only 3 and we have 10 that are 29+.

We have a few that would move into the 26-28 group through the year (Baker, Bolton, Taranto, Young, Graham) further reducing that 25 and under group but I expect our 29+ group to have a significant change this year.

We've already lost 2 of that group (Jack and Cotch) and with the others being Grimes, Kmac, Pickett, Prestia (these 4 are most under pressure IMO), as I don't think Nank, Vlastuin, Broad or Martin will be seeing much of a drop off in form this year, in fact I think a few can still improve their form from 2023 a little.

I think positional changes will be very interesting this year:
- Does Balta play forward - if so you'd expect Gibcus to play the full year down back
- Where does Baker get played? Does he replace Cotch in the mid / fwd mix, if so that creates options for Campbell, Clarke, Coulthard maybe even McAuliffe as a small forward as his speed is good
- Who plays on the opposite wing to Ross? Does Kmac retain his spot? Does Pickett head back there or do we look to the future? If to the future you'd expect Banks and Brown to be at the front of the queue, if Brown possibly with a positional change for 1 of the half backs, either Rioli or Short.

Lynch is obviously a huge recruit if fit, but then there are the others like Dow, Kosi, Naismith and Sonsie. How do they affect the mix.

I think of our squad only the following will not really affect the AFL side in 2024 with several of them developing their games in the 2's. I don't see Bauer, Colina, Fawcett, Green, Hayes-Brown, Miller, MRJ, Smith or Tresize really affecting the 1's next year but I'm expecting good progression from several of them. If 1 or 2 out of these affect the 1's then its probably due to form and I'd think Smith and Tresize are the most likely. I also expect Ryan and HRS to develop their games in the 2's.

Its a transitional time period for us, and an exciting one IMO. One which I don't think any media commentator has really analysed, but we have some quality on our list that can come in and replace some of those players above in our 2023 Best 23, and set us up for a move forward over the coming years. I'm confident that several of our kids will step up in 2024 and change the dynamic of our Best 23 age list wise. Potentially we could drop from 10 players 29+ in our best 23 to maybe 4 or 5 by the end of the year.

Agree with your predicted ‘shifts’, fingers crossed some of the younger ones really launch, and the Prestia, Vlastuin, Martin brigade stay healthy and play at their level.
I am intrigued by Hopper..

 

[Bullarto Tiger]

Balta foward will be a disaster

Have to disagree, Zipps.
If Balta does indeed play forward (more and more likely if Lynch does have a delayed start to the season) I am hoping that if he's given good time to settle into the position that he might surprise a few pundits.
Not that I know much, but I reckon he's got great potential to be a potent forward.

 

[Merveille]

Have to disagree, Zipps.
If Balta does indeed play forward (more and more likely if Lynch does have a delayed start to the season) I am hoping that if he's given good time to settle into the position that he might surprise a few pundits.
Not that I know much, but I reckon he's got great potential to be a potent forward.

Agree I reckon he is better prepared this time as well