Coronavirus

[Tigers of Old]

One week in, Morrison's recovery plan implodes

I wish it were hard to believe that just last week Josh Depressionberg announced a major tightening of fiscal support, the RBA put the stimulus cue in the rack, and the Morrison Government tried to bulldoze state quarantine borders in preparation for a rushed international opening to renew mass...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

Meanwhile life is pretty much back to normal in NZ!
The supression strategy was a mistake no two ways about it.
'Live alongside the virus'? How????

 

[Harry]

Yeah it was Scomo who was pushing to open things up quickly

 

[Ian4]

VIC
New Cases: 380 (429 with 49 reclassified)
Total Cases: 11,937
Active Cases: 6489 (up 167 from yesterday).
13 deaths (136 Total).
23,906 tests (1,676,953 Total)

NSW
New Cases: 13
Total Cases: 3797
Active Cases: 250 (up 10 from yesterday).
0 deaths (52 Total). Note: NSW Government website says 52 deaths, other sites say 50.
18,823 tests (1,526,863 Total)

 

[Harry]

All non essential businesses to close

 

[Althom]

All non essential businesses to close

Break out the homebrew kit

 

[Harry]

Break out the homebrew kit

grocery stores and bottle shops to remain open. obviously essential

 

[Althom]

ADF personnel now guarding Perth quarantine hotels.

 

[DavidSSS]

Went out for a short ride today, keeping within the 5KM limit so had to go back and forth a bit. Although things are still not as quiet as the first lockdown, there were noticeably less cars on the roads and less people wandering along the beach. A good sign. I will walk to the highway and see how it is going just before 8pm and see if that is desolate, hope so.

Slightly better numbers today, I am now going to restrict the list to the last 3 weeks, and of course, bear in mind that numbers from previous days do get changed (generally down, but occasionally up) although the changes are generally small. Source of numbers is the DHHS coronavirus site:

​	Daily Cases​	7 day trailing ave​
13 July 2020​	250​	197.29​
14 July 2020​	222​	211.43​
15 July 2020​	295​	232.14​
16 July 2020​	384​	266.57​
17 July 2020​	211​	255.14​
18 July 2020​	339​	267.14​
19 July 2020​	266​	281.00​
20 July 2020​	327​	292.00​
21 July 2020​	440​	323.14​
22 July 2020​	377​	334.86​
23 July 2020​	289​	321.29​
24 July 2020​	336​	339.14​
25 July 2020​	420​	350.71​
26 July 2020​	503​	384.57​
27 July 2020​	359​	389.14​
28 July 2020​	277​	365.86​
29 July 2020​	682​	409.43​
30 July 2020​	574​	450.14​
31 July 2020​	382​	456.71​
1 August 2020​	636​	487.57​
2 August 2020​	429​	477.00​

A dip, but we've seen that before. Look for a rise again tomorrow, and the next day, as the days dropping out of the 7 day average have lower infection numbers. If the 7 day average flattens or keeps dipping in the next 2 days maybe there is some impact, but I don't expect that, I expect we will need to see the impact of the latest restrictions before we start to see progress.

Keep well and, kick straight!

DS

 

[mrposhman]

As expected the media continue to only operate with the bad news. Even though todays numbers have continued to increase, there is good news in there.

I'm using the numbers from the CovidLive website that doesn't show the movement in reallocations, so slightly different numbers but they have so many other stats so good to use.

This website only started reporting aged care cases and healthworkers since 23rd July, so I have only 5 days of the 7 day moving average excluding them, but if you look at the 7 day moving average from 30th July it has increased from 410 to 463. Excluding aged care and healthcare workers it moved from 145 to 176 which means that close to half of the increase has been a result of the aged care and healthcare workers, and half in the community. As I've mentioned for the last few days, it seems like we have a 2 pronged issue, aged care / healthcare and everyone else. The numbers aren't declining outside of the healthcare environment but good news is there isn't a huge growth (and Sutton broadly talked about this today, ie. 1 person infects 1 other the new numbers stay constant, so the new measures are designed to get that 1 infected person, infecting less than 1 new person).

The other good news around the numbers is whilst the numbers continue to increase in terms of cases, the number in ICU has been decreasing. A similar % of people are being hospitalised but the number in ICU are down, so those that are dying are thankfully not being replaced with as many new cases going into ICU. In fact in the last week, we have had 5 days when ICU numbers have dropped and overall numbers have dropped from 44 to 35. We were at one time at about 30% of those hospitalised being in ICU, and are now down to 8.4% which is great news.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Well time the Gov announced that $1500 (per fortnight) pandemic leave disaster payment for workers without sick leave. Better late than never though.
Hopefully will keep many home that have been continuing to work whilst sick.

 

[Brodders17]

Meanwhile life is pretty much back to normal in NZ!
The supression strategy was a mistake no two ways about it.
'Live alongside the virus'? How????

but if all cases come from a guard at a quarantine hotel, it wouldn't have mattered if there were any community cases.
elimination needs to work alongside effective quarantine.

 

[MD Jazz]

Melbourne has nothing to apologise for - we've just been unlucky

The fight at hand to stem community transmission must take priority over temptations to attribute blame.

www.smh.com.au

Not that *smile* again. This is not luck. I keep hearing how infectious it is, surely it''s not also discriminatory?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Poorly trained security guards on a so-called “crazy floor” of the Rydges Hotel in Melbourne’s Swanston Street may have let COVID-19 escape into the community, after they became overwhelmed by hysterical guests who were screaming, crying and banging on walls, begging to be let out.

This week’s independent inquiry into the spread of the virus is expected to hear evidence that guests were begging, pleading and even offering money to security guards for a cigarette, a lighter, Valium or a breath of fresh air.

Many of those travellers, especially in the early days of the virus, were infectious, and the guards seemed unable to control them, with mental health professionals eventually called in.

The inquiry will hear that guards in one case struggled to handle a distraught women who collapsed and cried in the hotel hallway before making a bolt for the door, insisting on her need to “breathe”.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...s/news-story/e20cfd913d6b518549e51105f58663db (paywalled)

 

[IanG]

Not that *smile* again. This is not luck. I keep hearing how infectious it is, surely it''s not also discriminatory?

The author is an epidemiologist and more than 1 epidemiologist has said the same thing. As for your final sentence its clearly explained in the article, its got nothing to do with being discriminatory.

 

[eZyT]

I feel like until the strategic decision makers get a bit hard and fearless,

were gonna go around in circles.

1. proper quarantine (in the middle of nowhere. Cocos Keeling, Christmas Island, Woomera) WITHOUT EXCEPTION

2. Proper closed borders (did I here right on Q&A last night kern phelps said 17 planes a day currently from Melbourne to Sydney?)

3. Extreme Mass compulsory testing with custodial penalty for failure to isolate on a +

It seems to me at times like these, democracy is a bit *smile* weak

Apparently Hong Kong had all but eliminated and they exempted officers of public listed companies from quarantine, and Kaboom, they're up to their necks.

Who could have ever envisaged a virus attacking capitalism so hard?

not Karl Marx, not George Orwell, not Noam Chomsky, Not Chris Hichens, I dont reckon.

 

[Ridley]

439 new cases in Vic today and another 11 deaths.

Andrews has announced a $5K for anyone who does not self isolate as instructed. Not good enough Dan; if $1,700 won't do it $5K is unlikely to either. Most of the arseholes who do this can't or won't pay and will clog up the courts for years.

Very soft Dan. Mandatory detention is the only thing these people will understand. No excuses.

 

[spook]

Around 3000 door knocks at residences in which people are meant to be at home isolating. More than 800 people not home.

 

[Ridley]

Around 3000 door knocks at residences in which people are meant to be at home isolating. More than 800 people not home.

A disgrace. Yet Dan wants to fine them $5K. Yeah that'll work

 

[spook]

A disgrace. Yet Dan wants to fine them $5K. Yeah that'll work

Biggest on the spot fine in history. But yeah, forced isolation should be the response to those refusing to self-isolate. Cooler! Two weeks!

 

[Ridley]

Biggest on the spot fine in history. But yeah, forced isolation should be the response to those refusing to self-isolate. Cooler! Two weeks!

That it may be but as you say it doesn't go far enough. It won't deter those people who are inclined to do it. They'll just refuse to pay and take their chances in a court system that will be clogged for ages.

Military base. Mandatory detention for 28 days. No release until a negative test result; maybe even two.