2021 Draft Thread

[mrposhman]

With the player trade period now done, that’s one of the system’s lever to package up picks now gone. Seemed like Blair was bracing people yesterday for the fact we might not get 38 and 40 away which wouldn’t be ideal. Could end up a blessing in disguise if it pans out like that, but only time will tell.

Still reckon Saints are the one to watch. 2 academy kids expected somewhere around 20-30 in Windhager and Owens. They have 9 and then a massive wait to 62.

38 and 40 would get both of them being as they get a 197 point discount on both.

Say a bid at 23 and 29.

First bid at 23 - Pick value 815 less 197 discount = 618 - Use Pick 38 (465) and Pick 40 (429) - get back 276 points - get back Pick 50 (273 points)
2nd bid at 29 - Pick value 653 less 197 discount = 456 - Use Pick 50 (273), Pick 62 (123) and Pick 66 (80) - get back Pick 72

They probably then don't use Picks 67 and 72.

We would trade those 2 for a future 2nd in a heartbeat IMO.

Go into next year with a great hand of our 1st, plus our 2nd as well as Norths and Saints 2nds.

Saints essentially get 2 2nd round picks with 1 2nd and Picks 62 and 66. Its a no brainer that they look to bring next years picks into this year.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Wowsers, 7, 15, 26 & next year's early twenties pick. They must rate Horne-Francis or not rate this batch. Or they are simply clutching onto a known entity for fear of having egg on the face with so little football being played. I personally think that's an insane price to pay, in a midfielders draft no less. You can rebuild an entire engine room with those picks.

Yeah, it's a massive call for one kid who wasn't even playing in the best junior comp in the country. You'd want to be certain that you're getting another Dusty or Vossy type player with that sort of outlay, n then pray he never gets injured.

 

[Dont Argue]

This is the latest live pick ladder.
Who could outbid us for Collingwood's pick 27?

 

[Redford]

Still reckon Saints are the one to watch. 2 academy kids expected somewhere around 20-30 in Windhager and Owens. They have 9 and then a massive wait to 62.

38 and 40 would get both of them being as they get a 197 point discount on both.

Say a bid at 23 and 29.

First bid at 23 - Pick value 815 less 197 discount = 618 - Use Pick 38 (465) and Pick 40 (429) - get back 276 points - get back Pick 50 (273 points)
2nd bid at 29 - Pick value 653 less 197 discount = 456 - Use Pick 50 (273), Pick 62 (123) and Pick 66 (80) - get back Pick 72

They probably then don't use Picks 67 and 72.

We would trade those 2 for a future 2nd in a heartbeat IMO.

Go into next year with a great hand of our 1st, plus our 2nd as well as Norths and Saints 2nds.

Saints essentially get 2 2nd round picks with 1 2nd and Picks 62 and 66. Its a no brainer that they look to bring next years picks into this year.

Hope so. Seems it’s otherwise getting very tight for us.

 

[bullus_hit]

Yeah, it's a massive call for one kid who wasn't even playing in the best junior comp in the country. You'd want to be certain that you're getting another Dusty or Vossy type player with that sort of outlay, n then pray he never gets injured.

You wouldn't want a Trengove situation where he played his best football in the SANFL seniors and never really improved on that form, that is the danger with using such a small sample size. He's good for sure but he may not be the best player from the draft, that makes trading away four excellent picks a very risky exercise. I think if you're Richmond you spread the risk around, a midfield of Johnson, Goater, Taylor & say Butler (a hypothetical if we were to trade back into this year's draft) would give you a complete midfield for the next ten years. It's balanced, versatile & highly skilled. Hard to see Horne-Francis being more valuable than that, unless he becomes Dusty MKII.

 

[Dont Argue]

You wouldn't want a Trengove situation where he played his best football in the SANFL seniors and never really improved on that form, that is the danger with using such a small sample size. He's good for sure but he may not be the best player from the draft, that makes trading away four excellent picks a very risky exercise. I think if you're Richmond you spread the risk around, a midfield of Johnson, Goater, Taylor & say Butler (a hypothetical if we were to trade back into this year's draft) then you have a complete midfield for the next ten years. It's balanced, versatile & highly skilled. Hard to see Horne-Francis being more valuable than that, unless he becomes Dusty MKII.

Every club needs a marquee player.
A marketing dream but one that can win you games. They’re invaluable and some teams, like us had several but none bigger than Dusty, Jack, Rance and Cotchin.
We may be looking at life after these superstars.
Only resemblance in the junior ranks are Bolton and hopefully Balta and from the clouds Stack if he delivers on his potential and recovers from a damaged image issue.

 

[Scoop]

It seems logical but pick 3? Seems it would be better if they traded with Richmond but their reluctance indicates they want Hobbs. Who do you take Rachele vs Johnson?

Johnson, I take the size and midfield profile. I like Rachele, nothing against him but I’m taking the mid every time. Toby Greene is so unique I don’t know if you can replicate. And not sure our game plan fits Rachele.

 

[caesar]

This is the latest live pick ladder.
Who could outbid us for Collingwood's pick 27?


View attachment 13880

Question: When matching for a player do you have to utilize your first draft pick or just accumulate enough other picks to match?

 

[Scoop]

We sit back, see what kids go where on draft night and when we see the slider we value the most, we trade up hard & fast with enough capital to overpay to make sure it happens.

I have zero doubt we trade back in hard at some stage on draft night.

 

[bullus_hit]

Every club needs a marquee player.
A marketing dream but one that can win you games. They’re invaluable and some teams, like us had several but none bigger than Dusty, Jack, Rance and Cotchin.
We may be looking at life after these superstars.
Only resemblance in the junior ranks are Bolton and hopefully Balta and from the clouds Stack if he delivers on his potential and recovers from a damaged image issue.

For North, I get it, they have Davies-Uniake still unable to take the next step so they probably feel they need a confirmed A grader. From a Richmond perspective, probably not the best way to set yourself up for a post premiership rebuild, the depth of midfielders makes those picks so much more valuable because there's an abundance of players that we actually need & could use. Yes, Horne-Francis would be great but what happens if Horne-Francis goes the way of Rowell and does a knee? That won't help his style of play either, these contested beasts probably have a reduced shelf life compared to the Pendlebury types, they can also run very hot and cold. One observation I made when watching SA vs WA was the minutes Horne-Francis went totally quiet, he's already looking shaky with the tag, I think it was Sheldrick from memory. So giving up four quality mids for a bloke who may drift in and out of the contest doesn't make sense, unless of course he becomes a Dusty.

 

[bullus_hit]

Johnson, I take the size and midfield profile. I like Rachele, nothing against him but I’m taking the mid every time. Toby Greene is so unique I don’t know if you can replicate. And not sure our game plan fits Rachele.

Yep, mids, mids, mids. Although I think Rachele can get there, it's just no guarantee and I don't think Richmond can delay the midfield rebuild.

 

[mrposhman]

Question: When matching for a player do you have to utilize your first draft pick or just accumulate enough other picks to match?

You have to use them in their order.

 

[mrposhman]

I suspect the Dogs will still trade down their Pick 23 too. They currently have enough picks that their Pick 52 doesn't even get swallowed up with a bid on Darcy. They also have very few list spots.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Question: When matching for a player do you have to utilize your first draft pick or just accumulate enough other picks to match?

Not certain, especially the way AFL house runs things. But you would expect the points value to start up from your first available pick, not counting back from your last. That's probably why clubs are eager to get out of future early picks when they have a premium F / S prospect hiding in the back pocket.

 

[Sintiger]

Hawks just gave away Ceglar for nothing and are apparently paying some of his salary.

They got brisbanes 3rd next year and gave their own 4th back. That might end up being only a 4 or 5 spot upgrade, yet they are paying his salary. Crazy town.

Ceglar has a year left on his contract at the Dawks and got 2 years at the Cants. Hawks only paying part of his salary for 1 year

 

[year of the tiger]

Question: When matching for a player do you have to utilize your first draft pick or just accumulate enough other picks to match?

Start with your highest pick first and then work down through your picks till you have enough points.

 

[Scoop]

Yep, mids, mids, mids. Although I think Rachele can get there, it's just no guarantee and I don't think Richmond can delay the midfield rebuild.

I’m not sold on Johnson totally, I worry he might be too vanilla and not athletic enough. But we need mids.

What if it’s Gibcus v Johnson at our pick. Still prefer Ward and Hobbs by a looooong way than Johnson.

 

[King Kong]

I do get that impression. Who do you like at 15?

I really like Josh Fahey (GWS Academy). I reckon we are a chance of getting him as GWS won't have the points if they don't draft him at 13.

They'll have to trade future selections out to get the points and may not get reasonable offers on the night.

Fahey won the BOG medal for the Academy in the game v Geesook VFL. He beat Daicos and Horne-Francis for that honor and I really like it when a kid performs against seasoned professionals. It highlights their ability to transition to the next level.

If we miss Fahey I am also very keen on Darcy Wilmot - he looks a fantastic player, is the youngest player in the draft and captained Vic Metro in one of the trial games. The sort of player Dimma will absolutely luv as he is tough, athletic and has a team first attitude.

I like Hobbs, Gibcus, Ward, Johnson or Wanganeen-Milera at 9 in that order and then Fahey or Wilmot at 17.

I don't have Rachele or Sonsie high on my list and whilst Erasmus is very talented I expect our WA scout is the only one of our team to see him play live. Hence reckon we'll be reluctant to take him.

 

[craig]

I’m not sold on Johnson totally, I worry he might be too vanilla and not athletic enough. But we need mids.

What if it’s Gibcus v Johnson at our pick. Still prefer Ward and Hobbs by a looooong way than Johnson.

Vanilla mids we got Ross and Martyn for starters.

 

[Giardiasis]

Hobbs, Gibcus, Wilmot, Long, Lohmann, re-sign Cumberland, Stack, Nyoun. Wam bam thank-you mam.