2021 Draft Thread

[Redford]

I'm trying to stear clear of the MFC love in and decided to listen to trade radio...
What's with all these StKilda hacks being the game's great radio talent. ... Del Santo and Goddard .... jeez they're *smile* house!

Don’t do it to yourself.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Not sure how that works ?

Either do I.

That could be it. They probably take 2 and Ewlands (however you spell it) so I'm thinking this means the PP is gonski.

We aren't allowed to trade next years 1st and a 2nd though so that wouldn't work unless we brought in another club.

Ok. Maybe the CCJ trade is for a future second. Can that then be offloaded to GC?

 

[Giardiasis]

Either do I.

Ok. Maybe the CCJ trade is for a future second. Can that then be offloaded to GC?

Maybe it makes up a little bit for us losing our 2022 1st to GC

 

[mrposhman]

I would do that. The second round pick can come from this year. Especially if the CCJ trade gets us #20

Then could look at Adelaide's #4 pick. Some reports have them open to splitting #4 to position themselves not to over pay for the Swans player (name escapes me now). We could go 15 + 26+ 28 for pick 4 and 37 from Adelaide

We also get Bulldogs 17 plus 72 for 40 + 44 + the 37 from Adelaide

Leaves us with 3 + 4+ 7 + 17 + Chol compo with the 72 going to North for Tarrant

Again all guess work but there is potential to end up with a very good draft hand this year. 3 top 10 picks plus the 17 added to Balta, Bolton, Baker, Graham, RCD, Ross etc sets the base to build the next 10/12 years. Also eases the pressure on the salary cap.

Whilst some of those numbers may make sense on paper, I don't see them being acceptable to other teams.

Gold Coast I think we would need to pay a premium to get Pick 3. I don't see how we get it without using Pick 7.
Adelaide, the point of them splitting their pick is to still keep a 1st but get a getter return than just trading with Sydney.

The trade for Dawson with Sydney might be something like this:
Adelaide In Dawson and 12 and 31, Adelaide Out 4 and 23.

So Adelaide have only Pick 12 under 30, in that scenario.
In yours they would have 23, 26 and 28 so better than the Sydney offer but not by a lot being as all 3 of those picks will end up being 25-30.

The scenario that works better probably includes the Dogs pick.

4 for 15 and 17
Adelaide come out of that with 17 and 23 under 30. I don't think it gets done for much less than this.

I don't see us getting 3 personally, I think GC would want too much for it. I think we'd need to give up 7 and next years 1st for 3 and 22 which to me isn't a great deal for the Tiges unless we think Callaghan and Gibcus are that much better than everyone else.

I do think the Giants Pick 13 might be available though and I also can see us trading down Pick 7 to the West Coast for Pick 10 and something else if we get Pick 4.

I think we could get the Dogs pick with the CCJ pick (38 - 20 is dreamland unfortunately), plus 40 and 44 (slight points gain), but think we probably need to give 28 as part of it as need to make it beneficial to the Dogs. Gives them 443 points gain and enables them to match a bid upto Pick 5.

I think we might end up with something like 4, 10, 13 and a mid 20's pick personally.

 

[Redford]

I don't see us getting 3 personally, I think GC would want too much for it. I think we'd need to give up 7 and next years 1st for 3 and 22 which to me isn't a great deal for the Tiges unless we think Callaghan and Gibcus are that much better than everyone else.

Correct.

 

[King Kong]

Correct.

We are a very good chance of getting 3. Gold Coast have it on the table for x2 later round picks. If we can get Bullfrogs 1st pick (which is 90% chance) then that and 15 will get it done.

 

[King Kong]

We are a very good chance of getting 3. Gold Coast have it on the table for x2 later round picks. If we can get Bullfrogs 1st pick (which is 90% chance) then that and 15 will get it done.

We then have 3, 7, 20 (CCJ), 26 and 28.

That should net us:
3. B Hobbs
7. T Sonsie
20. J Van Rooyen
26. R Bazzo
28. Z Taylor

 

[Scoop]

We are a very good chance of getting 3. Gold Coast have it on the table for x2 later round picks. If we can get Bullfrogs 1st pick (which is 90% chance) then that and 15 will get it done.

3 for 15 and 17 still seems like a bad trade for the Suns.

 

[mrposhman]

3 for 15 and 17 still seems like a bad trade for the Suns.

Agreed. There is a reason why Adelaide would do it, as it helps them net a better return after they take Dawson.

I'm not sure whats in that one for the Suns unless they really think there isn't a lot of difference between Pick 5 and Pick 20.

 

[TigerPort]

3 for 15 and 17 still seems like a bad trade for the Suns.

Points wise 3 for 15 and 17 favours us by about 100 (2234 v 2137)

However if you look at wjere the actual pick would fall 5 for 17 and 19 it then favours GC (1878 v 1973)

 

[Redford]

We are a very good chance of getting 3. Gold Coast have it on the table for x2 later round picks. If we can get Bullfrogs 1st pick (which is 90% chance) then that and 15 will get it done.

Gold Coast aren’t doing that. 7 and 17 maybe but not 15 and 17. And 7 and 17 wouldn’t be good for us.

Pick 3 = 2234 points. 15 and 17 = 2137. Why would GCS do that ? Or even adjusted for FS it’s just 100 point advantage so they’re unlikely to dump a pick 3 (5) for that.

7 and 17 = 2669. Unless we really value our pick at 3 (5), then that doesn’t work for us either.

 

[Redford]

3 for 15 and 17 still seems like a bad trade for the Suns.

It is.

 

[King Kong]

3 for 15 and 17 still seems like a bad trade for the Suns.

Our opinions don't really matter - its what GC themselves have said they are happy with

 

[eZyT]

tI think we might end up with something like 4, 10, 13 and a mid 20's pick personally.

Thatd be an incredible outcome and should land a couple of premiership players

 

[mrposhman]

The swans are a better shot at GC's pick once the Dawson trade is done. 12 and the Dawson pick probably gets them Pick 3 if they want it.

 

[King Kong]

The swans are a better shot at GC's pick once the Dawson trade is done. 12 and the Dawson pick probably gets them Pick 3 if they want it.

How are they getting the Dawson pick though? We are the only one with multiple 1st rounders and we ain't helping them get 3

 

[mrposhman]

How are they getting the Dawson pick though? We are the only one with multiple 1st rounders and we ain't helping them get 3

I am estimating that we get 4 with 15 and 17. There is more motivation for Adelaide to do that than Gold Coast as they would get a better overall result from this than trading directly with Sydney (I believe).

I don't think GC would do the same trade, they would need more in the trade as the only thing in it for them is the value of the later picks, any trade would need to put them well in front.

They might do it for 12 and 17 IMO.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Just heard on the radio before that their list is full to the point they might have to delist players and put them on the rookie list just to make things work. Gold Coast wont be taking more than 3 picks in this years draft.

I dare say any trade to get pick 3 would have to involve a future pick.

Pick 3 + Pick 22 for Future first & second round pick.

I dont think we would give both 1st and 2nd rounder for 2022

Would be more like pick #3 + #22/#19 for Richmonds #7 + 2022 1st round
We could then use our 26 +28 to get into 2022 1st rounder from a team like Freo /Carlton

Really depends on how much we rate the kid we have our eyes on

 

[St Kevin]

We are a very good chance of getting 3. Gold Coast have it on the table for x2 later round picks. If we can get Bullfrogs 1st pick (which is 90% chance) then that and 15 will get it done.

If that happens, the AFL should sack everyone at the Suns and throw the keys into the surf.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Either do I.

Ok. Maybe the CCJ trade is for a future second. Can that then be offloaded to GC?

Im not confident we get #20 for Cj to be hones (would be a surprise)
thinking it will be #38