I'm struggling to see where Collingwood & Bulldogs get the points to match early bids, without trding out future firsts for heaps of seconds and thirds this year. I can't see too many clubs giving them a hand either, without absolutely bending them over.
Without knowing points value of 28, 40 & 44, could theybe offerded to Collingwood for 2022 first? Or are Collingwood required to keep this pick, as they traded out of this year?
Likewise, same three for Lipinksi or Richards from the Bullies, with next years second & third coming back? Teams with picks this year hold the whip hand in these negotiations.
Collingwood don't need that many points. If Daicos is bid on at 1, then they need 2400 points to match, they have 1707 at the moment, so they need somewhere around 700 points. If they get around 600 I think they would be happy, expecting their 1st won't be impacted too much by a 100 negative point deficit. Its why I would be all over trying to swap 1 of our 2nds with the 2022 2nd. We bank on them being poor again next year (potentially even getting a top 20 pick out of it).
I think they are expecting to take Daicos with their 1st, then a couple late in the draft. They are being linked with other players that will be traded for future picks I would assume. I suspect the Pies may take 1 or 2 picks into the SSP / mid season draft, hence they can take picks for these list spots to the draft but not fill them.
The Dogs (again assuming a Pick 1 bid (though more likely to be 2 or 3), they also need 2400 points, they only have 1044 points so are massively exposed to that high bid. I don't think they were expecting Darcy to be going this high last year, which is why they focused so much on JUH. I suspect they will be trying to trade a few players out and get extra picks this year. I suspect they will be heavily involved in pick trades this year in order to trade their point value up. If Darcy gets a bid at 3 (more likely I think than Pick 1) then the Dogs need just under 1800 points which they should be able to achieve. Depending on the volume of empty spots on their list, they may be open to trading their 1st down where I think we should jump at it.
We have a possible trade if we get a 3rd round compo pick for Chol leaving (I'm suspecting he is leaving, probably to the Suns), then I'd look at packing 40, 44 and 45 up for the Dogs 1st round pick. They would gain 113 points from that. They could fill the balance with either trades out this year (maybe Wallis leaving, Lipinski - though he looks like going to the Pies which will be for future picks, or there could be someone else). They would need a mid 2nd and would then have enough points for Darcy. Similar to the Pies, I suspect they may go to the draft with more list spots than they actually fill, maybe also taking some list spots to the SSP / mid season draft.
If we could do something like above, we might end up with, 7, 15, 17, 28 and have an additional 2nd next year (Collingwoods). This is the type of thing I suspect we look at doing this year.
If Pickett leaves for West Coast, then I'd hope we'd look at them as draft pick changes too. Maybe something like 10 and 35 for 17, 28 and Pickett.
Leaves us with 7, 10, 15 and 35 for this year.