2024 Draft Thread

[tigerdell]

Bakes put in a good showcase for the WA clubs on Sunday.
Yes at #1or 2 mid its bartting too high. But keep those performances up and if he leaves, big if, we'll get good reward.
Though I'd keep him. Flexble, tough, skilled, committed, high leadership. Love him

 

[tigerdell]

Brisbane pick 9 (though theyre likely to raise higher). Gettable with pick swaps if they dont go Shorty.
Freo's 2nd and our future 2nd in 25.
Slight risk we drop again next year, but minimal drop

 

[tigerdell]

...

The one I think is almost a lock to leave is Graham. He wont go to Port but to Adelaide. They will end up with a pick probably around 10. I would look at pick 10 & 34 for Graham and pick 13 (one we get from Carl/Bris).


..

Graham worth around p30?
Seems too low.

And cant see how crows move up the ladder to get p10. Maybe dogs are in freefall. But p5 is probably where they sit.

So p5 + p34 for p10 + Graham is good. Values Graham as late first round p17.

As crows will want points for Welch it might be a future 2nd instead of p34.

 

[spook]

If the Crows have pick 5 I doubt they swap it. A Welsh bid will come after that.

 

[tigersnake]

Not really the right thread but related. I reckon a couple of sides will come for Lynchy. He may not want to go and we may not want to trade him, but Melbourne for one would be mad not to ask the question, and they might dangle pick 14 or 15. Still one of, possibly the best KF in the comp.

 

[mrposhman]

If the Crows have pick 5 I doubt they swap it. A Welsh bid will come after that.

Thats my view too. Pick 9 and 10 is probably entering squeeky bum time for them, but anything better than that and they keep it and match for Welch with lower picks.

 

[mrposhman]

Graham worth around p30?
Seems too low.

And cant see how crows move up the ladder to get p10. Maybe dogs are in freefall. But p5 is probably where they sit.

So p5 + p34 for p10 + Graham is good. Values Graham as late first round p17.

As crows will want points for Welch it might be a future 2nd instead of p34.

Doesn't matter anyway, he's a free agent. Adelaide won't be trading for him, they will take him as a RFA, but as he's restricted (and I doubt he would screw us) the emphasis would be on Adelaide giving him a long enough contract and a high enough salary to get us band 3 compo, which will be an early 20's pick.

 

[Leysy Days]

Talk that there may be a change to the academy and FS picks where clubs can't use stockpiled later picks to match bids. Just in time to screw us.

AFL have said it won't be changed this year as clubs have already planned around current rules. Almost certainly next year though. As it should.

 

[Ghost of 29]

Talk that there may be a change to the academy and FS picks where clubs can't use stockpiled later picks to match bids. Just in time to screw us.

Will be for 2025. Once clubs figured out a way to get in on the scam the AFL look to shut it down

 

[tigersnake]

AFL have said it won't be changed this year as clubs have already planned around current rules. Almost certainly next year though. As it should.

Yes. Unfortunate it means GC will be able to repeat their stars-for-10c-deposit-bottles routine again this year, and their academy will probably never net a result like this again, but thats the way it is.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Graham worth around p30?
Seems too low.

And cant see how crows move up the ladder to get p10. Maybe dogs are in freefall. But p5 is probably where they sit.

So p5 + p34 for p10 + Graham is good. Values Graham as late first round p17.

As crows will want points for Welch it might be a future 2nd instead of p34.

If the Crows have pick 5 I doubt they swap it. A Welsh bid will come after that.

Crows will start to win more games. They wont be bottom 5. I expect them to finish anywhere between 8-10.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Doesn't matter anyway, he's a free agent. Adelaide won't be trading for him, they will take him as a RFA, but as he's restricted (and I doubt he would screw us) the emphasis would be on Adelaide giving him a long enough contract and a high enough salary to get us band 3 compo, which will be an early 20's pick.

Didnt realise he was a RFA.

Then the AFL will put the gloves on and stick it right up us.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Talk that there may be a change to the academy and FS picks where clubs can't use stockpiled later picks to match bids. Just in time to screw us.

That won't be for this yr as Clubs have already planned for it like us with the current/soon to be changed system in mind.

 

[tigerdell]

If the Crows have pick 5 I doubt they swap it. A Welsh bid will come after that.

Only to help get Graham (if it came to that)
So they'd downgrade 5 to 13 and get JG.
THey'd obvs prefer to use later picks, we'd prefer 5

Edit just saw Mr Poshspice post Graham is RFA.
Thanks for clarification!

 

[Jonesracing82]

Out of respect for our contracted superstar Shai Bolton, I'll discuss potential improvements to our draft hand in this thread.

We already have a stacked hand in this draft, and are likely to improve it through trading our suite of later picks for first-rounders to the likes of Carlton, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Brisbane, who all have highly-rated academy kids or father-sons.

Baker seems a big chance to go, delivering us another teens pick and probably a future second-rounder.

Bolton is worth at least a top-3 pick and another first-rounder. Woukd West Coast trade pick 1 and more to get him when they're a long way off contending? If Freo wants him, how do they get the currency required? Whichever side of the 'trade Shai' debate you're on, no number of teens picks (3 x pick 15 for a contracted superstar? GTFO!) is a good trade.

Then there's someone like Short. Potentially valuable to a contender. Taking a spot in our side that we could use to develop youth. Could get us a pick around 20.

Our current draft hand: 4, 24, 32, 41, 42, 50, 60, 62, 72

Let's say Baker goes to Freo. We'll have pick 12 (we won't get pick 6) and your future second, thanks.

What about Short? Brisbane might be interested in a backline kicker to replace Rich, and need to offload their first so they can get Ashcroft for peanuts. Short plus picks 32, 41, 42, 50, 60, 62, 72 for pick 9. Improves their points and gives them Short.

Now we have picks 4, 9, 12, 24.

And Shai.

No way i'm trading Bolton, but if the WA Clubs did come knocking, Freo have 3 1sts & a pick in the 20's currently, it's WCE that will have to come up with the currency, pick 1 for them wouldn't be worth doing. Personally trading 7 picks in the deal for pick 9 would be a waste. We can maybe get 2 in the 20's with that crop of picks. what would help us get the deals done - we trade with the handshake agreement that we don't bid on any players the Clubs need our pts for.

 

[T-Shirt Tommy]

Talk that there may be a change to the academy and FS picks where clubs can't use stockpiled later picks to match bids. Just in time to screw us.

Purely coincidental timing that the changes will come after the Suns & Swans have drained the recent talent pool in their respective academies.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Good idea. I'm not sure we'd need to be giving all of those picks along with Short anyway. They are basically getting Short plus a 482 point improvement. 32 probably wouldn't need to go, basically means they get Short for a decrease in points of about 102, as you say could be traded for about pick 20, so from a pick value perspective thats a significant gain from dropping Pick 9 backwards.

Gives us 4, 9, 12, 24 and 32. I'd like get Will Philips over from North, speaking to a North mate he seems to think similar to me that its just team balance why he isn't playing, that they prefer others over him. If we could get him for 32 it would be a good deal I reckon. Ready made, wins the ball, good at the defensive stuff.

That then probably probes the next question, if we still had 4, 9, 12 and 24, lets say North had 2 or 3 (btw I think we probably end up with 3 and North have 4), but would we offer 9 and 12 for say Norths 1st. They drop back to the part of the draft that has more talls in it, and we reset our midfield in 1 swoop with 2 top 3/4 mids. Certainly a question that could be posed.

Lose Bakes and Short, gain Philips and 2 top 3/4 midfield picks, or would we take the 1 and then draft some talls / other mids with the other 2 picks as we might get someone like Lalor at 24.

It would be a good draft hand to make calls like that to significantly refresh the list quickly.

BTW - could also be impacted if Graham heads back to SA. Adelaide could pay him a bit more so we don't match so we get a band 3 (round 2 draft pick) which would net us a high 20's pick.

I'm a no for Phillips, guy can't even get a game at Norf.... Also with Taranto & Hopper, if we got him where do Dow/McAuliffe & our 1st draft pick (assuming it's a mid) etc fit in? Also given we'd be playing Bolton in there for a bit of pace as well. those kids need game time from now on.

 

[ToraToraTora]

Great start Spook.

Not sure Shorty is going anywhere. VC and highly regarded within the club.

Bakes 50/50 to leave. So for this argument lets assume he goes. Freo for pick 12 sounds about right.

Also snag Carltons or Brisbanes first pick due to F/S. Lets assume thats 13.

The one I think is almost a lock to leave is Graham. He wont go to Port but to Adelaide. They will end up with a pick probably around 10. I would look at pick 10 & 34 for Graham and pick 13 (one we get from Carl/Bris).


Picks 4, 10, 12. Three first rounders.


And we keep Shai, Short.

If Bakes goes, we have to make Freo pay overs.

 

[mrposhman]

I'm a no for Phillips, guy can't even get a game at Norf.... Also with Taranto & Hopper, if we got him where do Dow/McAuliffe & our 1st draft pick (assuming it's a mid) etc fit in? Also given we'd be playing Bolton in there for a bit of pace as well. those kids need game time from now on.

Philips is too similar to their current primary midfield. Their preference for their prime 3 are Wardlaw, LDU and Powell with Simpkin next one down.

I've got an easy answer for you with Dow - playing for a standalone VFL club most likely.

Even with primary picks, we need older bodies to protect them somewhat, so I'd want to be playing McAuliffe and the new drafts as 2nd bananas through the midfield, so if we were to lose Baker we have 2 mids to play through the midfield, Taranto and Hopper, with Bolton going through there too. I'd say someone like Philips is required for us to have a functioning midfield. Seems to be fine at winning clearances, is defensive, his tackling is great (and its not because he's 2nd to the ball as he gets a fair amount of it himself).

I don't think he's realised his potential as a prior pick 3, but for a pick in the 20's / 30's. to me he's a no brainer and would go straight into our midfield which will also help protect the newbies from being smashed by the bigger and better midfielders enabling us to bring them in in a controlled manner.

 

[toothless]

Phillips ran 2.91 seconds in the 20-metre sprint and 6:38 minutes in the 2km time trial.

Will Phillips' 2020 Diary

Oakleigh Chargers prospect Will Phillips provided some unique insight on his 2020 season.

www.nmfc.com.au