what is the best strategy for backing the tigers this year I hear asked?
IMO, backing us to win the flag. betting for us to finish top 4 has no value at the price, plus we will win at least make the GF if we finish top 4 anyway. Theres no value in the quinellas anymore, so I just bet to win the flag, leaving enough room to lay a bit in a prelim and GF
At this stage, I'll likely have half my stake on us on Thursday April 29,
the day before we reveal our hand against the dogs.
the bookies are very, very wary of us this year.
$6 is the best we can expect at this stage I think.
the trouble this year, is all the early contenders won't trouble us in September and the bookies know it. Plus Swans and Dees fans dont punt. imagine coping Swans or Dees in a prelim? Its shaping up to be like 2020 IMO, where we are twice as good as 2nd best (port, dogs, wc at this stage)
I'll keep my other half stake up my sleeve in the event of a couple of losses or injuries mid season and the possibility of getting $8 or $10,
and so an average price of $7 or $8.
worst (best) case scenario and we win every game after the dogs, we'll still get $3 in July and an average price $4.5,
which was the preseason quote.